Here's a question troubling me at the moment, not sure whether others have any views...in looking at a staking plan to accompany your betting do you want to use something that gives you the best POT or something that gives you the best bank at the end of the day?

SteveM, it all depends on what you are doing, I mean for long term profits from "investing" it's the Profit On Turnover of course.... BUT there is a case for aggressive staking plans designed to make a killing from those good runs and riding out the mediocre runs without too much damage, a quick example is my idea of betting 1/5 the bank never reducing, QUIT when there is insufficient funds for the next bet and start again. You will need the patience of a saint but sooner or later you'll hit that lucky run and make a heap! even though the plan overall may not even show a level stakes profit.

Cheers PP thanks for those comments.


I assume some others might have come across thestakingmachine.com/ which I actually bought for $60 and have played around with.

Quite valuable tool. Obviously there would be some freeware out there. Lets you import your results and then run them through about 17 existing betting plans and 10 laying plans which they have. You can then play around with those plans by changing start banks, betting %, divisors etc.

You can then see stats regarding each plan, particularly helpful I thought was the simple analysis between min and max bets. Which for a number of those incremental systems vary widely in order to make a profit.

I see you can get a free demo version as well. Worth a look.

Thanks for the link SteveM. I like the listing of back and lay staking plans on the right.

Here's a plan that manages to show a profit even if there is a level stakes loss.

If ones average div is say $3.00 with approx 23%SR. = LOT -31%
We bet in lots of 4 continuing upwards win, lose or draw. Until in profit.
According to the most experts, it is impossible to make a staking plan work if it does not show a level stakes profit.
Well, lets see.

One item of fact ,is that it is impossible to show a level stakes profit , if you cant pick winners that are also priced accordingly.
That's why money management is imperative if one wishes for a long term profit.

Ideally, try & use a selection process that can break even at level stakes if using this staking plan.


Bet 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 ect.

Allow for a run of at least 70.
Bank needed $684 ,last bets being 4 lots of $18.00

Keep going up the ladder if a winner does not put us in front.

Start afresh as soon as any profit is made.

Example
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6w@$3.00 7, 7@$3.00 7@$3.00 7@$3.00 8, 8@3.00 8@$3.00 8, 9@$3.00 9@$3.00


8 from 34 = 23.5%
Ret $183
O/L $162
+$21.00 profit. = +12.9% POT
Av. Bet size $4.76

Level stakes @ $4.76 a bet.
Ret $114.24
O/L $161.84
Loss -$47.60 = -29.4% LOT

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Okay, heres something I've been trying to come to an understanding with, but am unsure of still. Can target betting turn a loss into a profit? Playing round with the six point divisor on paper, and it seems to work so far, mainly due to the fact that when you hit a bad run, you can add a safety brake in the form of another divisor, but then when you hit a good run, you can quickly clear the series.

What are peoples thoughts? I know staking plans don't work due to the fact that eventually you end up having x amount of bets at $5, x amount at 6$ and so on, and evetually it works out to be effectively betting level stakes.
Be interested to hear peoples thoughts on this? I will do some more trials with it, because I'm sure that it will bust eventually with a horror run, but yeah, thoughts?

Hi, Thorns.

I'll put my two bobs worth in for whatever its worth.

About a month ago I used a loss-chasing stakings plan with the Betfair fave. I bet on races with 9 to 12 runners and the fave had to be $2.50 or higher. After a few days I was showing a very good profit but because I like multiple selections I then decided to include the second and third faves. After a few more days the method was showing a most acceptable profit. My longest losing streak was 3 which only happened once.

After a week of probably 100 races I then stopped. Not because I was losing (I was winning) but because increasing the bet amount is not me - not at the moment anyway.

What I think made the method profitable - I could be wrong - were the 2 rules, and most importantly in my opinion were the brilliant prices I snared especially the second and third-faves when compared to the TAB divvies. I would suggest if you are going to use a stakings plan then to seriously think about doing it on Betfair.

Others may have far more experience and thoughts than myself but I don't think any average punter should persist with a bettingplan in which you are attempting to turn a loss into a profit.

I think you firstly need a sound selection method, then a plan that complements.

Hi, Steve M. I agree - I don't think the average punter would be too enthusiastic with a loss-chasing/stakings plan. Even though mine was profitable I lost interest.

I think the method was somewhat sound when the filters were applied. I've just had a look at a qualiying race - Murwillumbah race 2. The third-fave won, paying $5.90 on Unitab but slightly over $8.00 on Betfair. When chasing losses the total Betfair outlay is not too punishing.