Angry, I know that my ROI is way out od the norm. I have been expecting it to fall over and has not.

My Number 1 System has been going for about for 5 or so months. I have had about 250 bets. And have recently had a redraw from it because I know it will not last.

Infact I have no confidence in the Neurals and have really been using it as a lay top senerio ommiting the first couple and going for value. I found it did not effect my SR but improved my return.

Makes no sense, but I will keep pushing on. The fact that I noticed they kept changing has jolted my thinking a bit and luck may have been on my shoulder. I do not know.

But as the old saying goes, " Do what you always do and you have no right to expect a different result. "

beacause this approach is so radically different to what I have done previously I will ride it out to see what happens.

There's some stuff on here I've written about Chi-Square tests and sample sizes. You should find them with a search. Sorry don't have them at hand at present.

The bottom line is that the market is almost always going to be a better judge than you or me. From time to time variance is going to make us think we're on to a real winner but the market is very patient and knows its business.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Here

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=17425

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Thanks for that link Angry. I had a quick look and will follow up in the morning. I can remember some of the more vibrant discussions in those days.

I am overwhelmed by the response to my questions and need some sleep to clear my head.

Thanks to you and all

Star

Well, I have had a good sleep and ready for battle. Looked at the Neurals again and rejigged them to try to take some inconsitencies out of them yet still come close to my original neural Order.

It appears to me ( ? ) that some of their filters affect others , ( ? ) so what I have done is reduce or negate them because my final filters away from the neural eliminates or sorts it out hopefully.

So, without further ado, I am coming back for one more public flogging and shaming.

My System 1 has two bets today. I had worked them out a few days ago. With the adjustment to the starting Neurals which are now slightly different to what I started with I was able to come up with the same two horses,

System 2 which was the original reason for my query on the shifting sands of the neurals has no bets today because I only use that on Metropolitan tracks because of the sheer volume of bets.

So, today.

Casterton. R2 H2 Universal Sound

Sunshine Coast R7 H 10 All Coin

This system is on a run of outs of 2.

I am using an old spreadsheet I think I got from here a few years ago. Unfortunately, when I had my draw down I restarted the spreadsheet so do not have the back figures or statistics anymore.

If anybody can point me to some information on Spreadsheets I would appreciate it although the one I got from here is doing a great job. One of the old regulars on here put it up.

It has a chi square formulation built into it as well but I am not to sure if that is in working order. Some of the columns are password protected so I cannot use that but it suits my purpose.

Some of the hardheads on here obviously look at things I have never thought off and that is the value of this forum.

Star

ps

I do not mind putting these selections up before the race because of the replies and help given here. Sometimes you have got to give a bit and hopefully some snippets of information or angle is provided back that was never thought of.

Although, going on yesterday's result that should be a filter enough to stop anybody running with my ideas. ( lol )



Star

Its all part of the fun of punting.

I wish you the best of luck this time through.

Hi Star,

It sounds like you have your head screwed on properly and you're not putting ridiculous amounts of money on these selections; so it's all a bit of fun.

My advice is to try and analyse these selections down to the tiniest detail, to figure out exactly why a section is coming out on top. Once you have discovered that and fully understand the methodology, you're on your way to profit.

Good luck!!!

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

From the number of acknowledgements anywhere on any thread , I don't think that would be an issue regardless of how well you were travelling.

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No big bets. Infact since i threw the form out the window a few months back I have been in front.

Never a big bettor I mainly used the exotics, the Treble was my favorite, Max spend of $20 per week.

They have been getting harder to get and when you do snag one the dividend is sometimes no better then an all up or often less.

Since, times are getting tougher here, the systems have been a godsend. I have started with a small deposit on Sportsbet, withdrawn my deposit plus a bit extra and have not had to use my money at all.

So, even if I crash out in the future I will be way infront because the losses have been controlled.

Star