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  #41  
Old 28th May 2007, 03:35 PM
burrah burrah is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by savage
Hi Burrah

The way I came up with $1.2 was adding up 20 strikes & dividing by number of races multiply by 2

I agree that it is very aggressive.

Can you tell me how to establish a proper divisor?
Thanks
Add up your twenty winner odds, then divide by 20 to give you your average decimal odds.
Then divide those 20 winning races by the total number of races, this will give you your strike rate.
Then convert your average decimal odds into a percentage chance.

(1/decimal price) x 100 = % chance

Worked example: 2.50
1/2.50 x 100 = 40%


hopefully your strike rate and percentage are close.


Generally the divisor is 6 or if you want a less agressive divisor make it around 12

1.2 x 5 = 6
2.5 x 4 =6
3 x 2 = 6
3.5 x 2 = 7
1.10 x 10 = 12
etc
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  #42  
Old 28th May 2007, 03:42 PM
burrah burrah is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burrah
Add up your twenty winner odds, then divide
1.2 x 5 = 6
2.5 x 4 =6
3 x 2 = 6
3.5 x 2 = 7
1.10 x 10 = 12
etc
OOps, was listening to race odds, and not concentrating.
Those figures should be
2.5 x 4 = 10
1.10 x 10 - 11
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  #43  
Old 29th May 2007, 05:49 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Savage
Here is one way for Place betting.
Using the modified concept, start with divisor 2, using lots of 2.
Reduce by 1pt after each placegetter.

Using $60 target
First bet $30
1% of $3000 bank.

Example of divisors used.
2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5p 4p 3 3p 2p 2p 2p ect.
Start again once 2+ units in front.
Never drop below 2/1

I am assuming ones average div is $1.20 which is very low.
Generally its a good idea to have $1.30 as the min amount accepted , other wise, no-bet that race.
One has to aim for some value, other wise its too hard to recover losses.

If Place betting on horses for the place, try & target races with no more than 12 runners , this will increase ones SR.

Remember if one can save one dud bet in 10, that's an improvement of 10% on the overall SR.

Cheers.
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Cheers.
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  #44  
Old 29th May 2007, 06:22 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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"the staking plan can withstand 48 without a winner"

This stupendous claim conveniently omits a lot of reality.

In fact you don't need an unlikely run of ~49 losses to bust your bank. Just losing ~49 more than expected (for a zero-edge game) will bust you!

But preserving your bank for a long time is still useless. If you use this "Plan" on a negative game then you have a very good chance of soon pottering about in negative territory. With very little prospect of ever recovering back into the black.
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  #45  
Old 29th May 2007, 08:37 AM
stugots stugots is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc
If you use this "Plan" on a negative game then you have a very good chance of soon pottering about in negative territory. With very little prospect of ever recovering back into the black.


correct jfc, anyone suggesting otherwise (which im not sure anyone has, in this thread at least) is playing silly ************s

imho this plan is most useful in helping to turn wayward & erratic punters into more controlled & level headed beings

that said, still got to be able to pick a winner
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  #46  
Old 30th May 2007, 10:43 AM
Mr. Logic Mr. Logic is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stugots
imho this plan is most useful in helping to turn wayward & erratic punters into more controlled & level headed beings
that said, still got to be able to pick a winner


Comment:

No staking plan imo can turn "wayward & erratic punters into more controlled & level headed beings" because the selections come first!!!

"wayward & erratic punters" are defeated by their wagers and the odds they take about them and so IT IS TOO LATE to be saved by any staking plan.
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  #47  
Old 31st May 2007, 11:30 AM
stugots stugots is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Logic
Comment:

No staking plan imo can turn "wayward & erratic punters into more controlled & level headed beings" because the selections come first!!!

"wayward & erratic punters" are defeated by their wagers and the odds they take about them and so IT IS TOO LATE to be saved by any staking plan.


umm, rubbish

even the most compulsive idiot can pick a winner, so once the issue of 'how to bet' is managed to some degree, the job of selecting ones bets becomes the main focus, as it should always be.

well at least in this punters experience
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  #48  
Old 31st May 2007, 02:45 PM
crash crash is offline
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I'm sure some compulsive idiots might agree. Then again, other compulsive idiots might not [depending on their own experience of course].
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  #49  
Old 1st June 2007, 12:20 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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your contributions are worth their weight in........
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