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  #111  
Old 20th January 2018, 05:05 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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A couple of things impacted the results today.

1. The loss last weekend which meant I was very careful on the selections and went a lot wider in the races.
2. Time

I didn't bet on as many races today as my life got in the way. Still I produced an acceptable profit for the time I put in for todays betting.

Todays Profit was : $240.

Week 1: $1770 Profit
Week 2: $8280 Profit
Week 3: $2100 Profit
Week 4: $3300 LOSS

Day 29: $240 Profit

Total Profit : $9,090 Profit
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  #112  
Old 20th January 2018, 08:50 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Going great guns.

Cheers.
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  #113  
Old 21st January 2018, 04:27 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Going great guns.

Cheers.


Yep doing ok. It could still be better though.
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  #114  
Old 21st January 2018, 04:30 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Week 1: $1770 Profit
Week 2: $8280 Profit
Week 3: $2100 Profit
Week 4: $3300 LOSS

Day 29: $240 Profit
Day 30: $300 Profit

Total Profit : $9,390 Profit

Nice easy profit today. Made the money on only 9 races which I was certain I had the winner in a few picks. Was far happier today as the races and the winners were easy to find.

If I could replicate what I did today every day I would be extremely happy. 2 Days of profit definitely helping to reinstate the confidence.

I might try to get a few done this week but it looks like a hectic week for me so might not be back till next Saturday.
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  #115  
Old 21st January 2018, 10:01 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Very interesting indeed. After your first loss you seemed to carry on unaffected and had a long period of success. You commented at the time the first loss was due to inattention, but it didn't appear to change your emotional state. However after your most recent loss you said you were very careful and went wide. I may have misread your emotions, but if I haven't then why did this recent loss make you take a deep breath and be extremely cautious?

If this insight into your betting activities hasn't hit home to all who have read it that punting is one tough caper then the world is indeed full of mugs. You've demonstrated that you need a supreme level of expertise, and, as your two losses have demonstrated, you need to be alert and attentive at all times. Your emotions need to be in check too.

This thread should make crystal seem opaque in comparison to the message here that you need to be the very best in all departments to win long term. I'd guess somewhere in the top 0.5% of serious punters win frequently.

The fact you know how much profit you should make beforehand demonstrates confidence in your ability to select suitable races to bet on and experience and knowledge of racing and markets to take advantage of the odds on offer.

With system betting you can measure recent performance against historical performance and make sure the results are within what's expected. There's no system that could replicate what you do, I'm sure there's a certain amount of "gut instinct" or subconscious knowledge that kicks in and allows you to further investigate a long shot, a horse dismissed by all except maybe the owners.

What percentage of "form" would you take into account? Trials, gear changes, vet reports.....

Good stuff UselessBettor, a great insight. I know you'll take my observations in good spirit
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  #116  
Old Yesterday, 11:01 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
Very interesting indeed. After your first loss you seemed to carry on unaffected and had a long period of success. You commented at the time the first loss was due to inattention, but it didn't appear to change your emotional state. However after your most recent loss you said you were very careful and went wide. I may have misread your emotions, but if I haven't then why did this recent loss make you take a deep breath and be extremely cautious?


I think it was because the first losing day was all because I was not focusing on the right things due to being tired. I was missing a lot of reasons on why horses should be bet.

The second losing day hit me harder as I should have known better.

I also found after the first losing day I was betting daily so I got back into the groove of betting quite quickly. It didn't take long to rebuild the confidence. Whereas the second losing day had 5 days before I had time to get back in and start betting. I think even after the first losing day I was probably hurting from it but I was able to bounce right back with a few winning days.


Quote:
If this insight into your betting activities hasn't hit home to all who have read it that punting is one tough caper then the world is indeed full of mugs. You've demonstrated that you need a supreme level of expertise, and, as your two losses have demonstrated, you need to be alert and attentive at all times. Your emotions need to be in check too.

Couldn't have said it better. This isn't easy money. I feel like I have to put in the effort in order to get the right results. If you are looking for too many shortcuts then you are not going to make a great profit. Sure you might scrape a profit here and there and make 10-20k a year but it takes a lot more focus to take that to 100-200k a year.


Quote:
This thread should make crystal seem opaque in comparison to the message here that you need to be the very best in all departments to win long term. I'd guess somewhere in the top 0.5% of serious punters win frequently.

Yep. Winning frequently is a very hard thing to do. But I always believe in small consistent wins and allow compounding build your bankroll (not so much these days as my bankroll is large enough) .

Quote:
The fact you know how much profit you should make beforehand demonstrates confidence in your ability to select suitable races to bet on and experience and knowledge of racing and markets to take advantage of the odds on offer.


I work out my profit target based on winning around 85% of the races for the day that I am involved in. If I go better then that then I end up having a great day, if I go worse I tend to go really bad and lose a lot as shown by the two losing days I also find my losing races tend to start at one track and continue at that track. Its not all the time but it could have something to do with misreading the class of the track or the jockey / trainer / barrier advantages and disadvantages. But on review of my losing races and go over my notes against each horse I see the true reasons why I missed the winners. Generally its because I discounted a run or thought the inside barrier was no help or that the trainer was just putting him in the race for a fitness gallop. Every race I analyse has a comment beside every horse before the race so that I can do proper race reviews without trying to remember why I included/excluded the horse.

Quote:
With system betting you can measure recent performance against historical performance and make sure the results are within what's expected. There's no system that could replicate what you do, I'm sure there's a certain amount of "gut instinct" or subconscious knowledge that kicks in and allows you to further investigate a long shot, a horse dismissed by all except maybe the owners.


Actually I was thinking through this the other day. It is a bit subconsious and it would be very hard to program. It may not even be something with the horse that I pick up. It might be a something about the jockey, or something weird like trainer change or trying a distance for a first time. It might be a stewards note about being blocked or bumped which I then check the video for. It could be a rating out of wack with the others or a previous high rating which has caught my eye.

Quote:
What percentage of "form" would you take into account? Trials, gear changes, vet reports.....


I look everything I can get my hands on. Yes gear changes, trials are a definite, vet reports in steward notes. Racing patterns, jockey and trainer info, changes in barrier or weight or class. Past runs between horses in the same races, and also the usual form by checking the results of previous races and even watching the videos where they are available.

A lot of it comes down to why is this horse in this race, and does the jockey and the trainer think it can win. If they do then there are going to be subtle hints that can guide you.

For examples bandages are a bad sign for most horses. Why is it wearing a bandage? If a trainer wants a horse to win he is not going to send him out there with an injury. But some trainers use bandages for extra support and its not a hinderance. You get to know which ones do this. But there are others who will send a horse around because the owners are in the stands and they want to see their horse race. You need to make decisions on the why before you can understand if it has a chance.

Quote:
Good stuff UselessBettor, a great insight. I know you'll take my observations in good spirit


I am very appreciate of the comments. Even replying to them gets me thinking and I expect my answers are even as much as a benefit to me as it is to whoever reads it.
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  #117  
Old Today, 12:52 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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I CAN'T ARTICULATE AS CLEAR AS YOU UB, BUT I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THAT "ALL SYSTEMS WORK" PROBLEM IS THEY DON'T WORK "ALL" OF THE TIME, TRICK IS HOW TO MANIPULATE THEM!!!
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