Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 19th April 2018, 05:48 AM
Vortech Vortech is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 945
Default High Tatts High SP

Last Saturday a few winners and placegetters popped up around the place with the following

1. SP Over $10
2. Tatts rating 97 or higher

NR8 Horse 8 Revolver Tatts rating 97 Won @ $11.60
CR 6 Horse 9 Shake Her Bon Bon rating 100 won @ $13.10

Then places
AR4 H8 $3.30
CR4 H8 $8.60
SR5 H2 $3.60
AR2 H4 $3.80
AR2 H11 $4.90


Overall there were about 44 bets for the day so obviously a losing one without additional filters. Has anyone played in this space before?

Cheers
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 19th April 2018, 11:44 AM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,422
Smile

Hi Vortech,

One problem using a rule such as SP > $10 is how do you know the SP until the race is over? I have seen many races where the prices change as the horses are just about to jump.

Rules such as Prepost or Opening prices are not open to interpretation and may be a better way to approach this.

Regards

TTA
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 20th April 2018, 04:54 PM
Vortech Vortech is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 945
Default

Very true. Using Market price or SP brings about similar results.

Easier to the morning punter to place the bets.

I've find a few more filters to play with after the mid week races.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old Today, 11:49 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,350
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Try Try Again
Hi Vortech,

One problem using a rule such as SP > $10 is how do you know the SP until the race is over? I have seen many races where the prices change as the horses are just about to jump.

Rules such as Prepost or Opening prices are not open to interpretation and may be a better way to approach this.

Regards

TTA


Exactly. You need to be recording the price when you place the bet (hopefully seconds before jump) so you know what prices you were actually seeing.

Unfortunately prepost and opening prices are far inferior to the price close to jump time as predictors.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old Today, 01:00 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,976
Default

2 cents worth, I studied Pre Post Favs for many years many many thousands of results. Although the actual fav. did differ in a % of cases overall the S/R was almost identical.

Like wise the (POT) without filters was also almost identical as well even though sometimes the Pre -post fav. blew out but still won.

I also tried different sources of the pre-post, and although you were sometimes on a different horse, the overall results were so close you couldn't separate them

I also repeated the exercise for 2nd and 3rd Favs, result almost identical again.

So what I'm saying is were a system is based on price, for each individual race probably the market just before the off is probably the most accurate in terms of winning percentage, but overall it doesn't seem to matter, i.e. a roundabouts and swings scenario.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 09:49 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655