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  #31  
Old 15th May 2017, 09:12 PM
Sands Sands is offline
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22nd April winners

The Mighty Fed & Oklahoma Girl & Schedule - Randwick
Rich Charm & Sword Of Light - Caulfield
One Short & Remember Berlin & Variation - Ascot
Rock Status & Royal Rumble & Kenedna & Desert Lashes - Morphettville
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  #32  
Old 16th May 2017, 01:10 AM
dcpg dcpg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Could just be a winning patch at the moment or something. I tested with CP's database with the following inputs:

Won last start
Last start was Metro track
Win % of 25% or greater
1 or more starts this prep

From 1998 to 2014:
30,248 selections
21.71% Strike Rate
-10.41% POT

Unless you're narrowing the selections down further with other criteria? The above is based on tote odds so something like top tote may help somewhat but still seems unlikely to me that it would be a long-term winner based on those stats. Just my view though, if you're winning with it then well done


What about if you pick the first horse with LSW at a city track with % >= 20%. Order by winning %. This reduces your picks somewhat.
I had a look at the 22 April results and with the modified approach I have 22 picks from Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane for 6 winners paying roughly 26.7. This is a profit of 21% for the day.

Can we test for something like this over the longterm ?
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  #33  
Old 18th May 2017, 07:45 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dcpg
What about if you pick the first horse with LSW at a city track with % >= 20%. Order by winning %. This reduces your picks somewhat.
I had a look at the 22 April results and with the modified approach I have 22 picks from Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane for 6 winners paying roughly 26.7. This is a profit of 21% for the day.

Can we test for something like this over the longterm ?


Looking at 10 years it provides a LOSS of +/-17%

No matter what your selection method used you must be able to overcome the TAB takeout of abt. 18%. While Betfair takes less the prices are adjusted accordingly by the professionals.
Many selection methods are 'thinly' profitable at zero takeout but trip when they come in touch with the 'middleman'.
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  #34  
Old 18th May 2017, 08:46 AM
TobinBronze TobinBronze is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sands
22nd April winners

The Mighty Fed & Oklahoma Girl & Schedule - Randwick
Rich Charm & Sword Of Light - Caulfield
One Short & Remember Berlin & Variation - Ascot
Rock Status & Royal Rumble & Kenedna & Desert Lashes - Morphettville

Have been following for a while. Going well.
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  #35  
Old 22nd May 2017, 06:03 PM
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29th April winners

Lanciato & So Willie - Hawkesbury
Mr Sneaky & Kobayashi - Caulfield
Misery & Morendi & Saint Patricks Day & Dreams Aplenty - Eagle Farm
Key To Fame & Couleur Bizarre - Ascot
Riziz & Waging War - Morphettville
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  #36  
Old 12th June 2017, 08:04 PM
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13th May winners

Thelburg & All About Love - Caulfield
Tangled & Stampede & Redzel - Doomben
Rosewood Hill & Caipirinha - Ascot
Roselli Sting & Mulder & Tsaritsyn - Morphettville

No Sydney metro meeting
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  #37  
Old 18th June 2017, 07:23 AM
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20th May winners

Viridine & New Universe & Hay Now & Bonny O'Reilly - Rosehill
De Little Engine - Flemington
Pardoe - Doomben
Push To Pass & Tonkatuff - Ascot
Exocet & Burning Front - Morphettville
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  #38  
Old 3rd July 2017, 07:43 AM
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3rd June winners

Test The World - Rosehill
Wanted Diva - Moonee Valley
Pardoe & Egg Tart & Bonny O'Reilly - Doomben
Show Honey & Two Silver Trees & Rock Magic - Belmont
Alta Stella - Morphettville
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  #39  
Old 1st August 2017, 10:39 PM
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8th July winners

Manicure - Warwick Farm
Spanish Reef & Schism & Royal Symphony & Ability & Willi Willi - Flemington
Ilovevegus - Doomben
Salubrious & Variation - Belmont
Lady Silhouette - Gawler
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  #40  
Old 4th August 2017, 06:54 AM
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15th July winners

Siege Of Quebec & Insensata - Rosehill
Orient Line & Schism - Caulfield
Bring It Home Pop - Sunshine Coast
Friaresque - Belmont
Balf's Choice - Morphettville
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