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Old 2nd April 2018, 06:12 PM
TWOBETS TWOBETS is offline
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Default Riddle me this....rider change

The trouble with old school punters like me is they don't keep data records.

Over the years I,ve just got this feeling that there is more to some rider changes than meets the eye.

The kind of example I'm talking of is 31Mar Mudgee R6 #9. When I looked at the runner it looked like the kind of thing you could overlook. It jumped as a super long shot and surprise,surprise. This type of thing happens quite a bit. Usually the longest in the field and the only thing to distinguish it is the rider change.

Maybe CP could shed some light on this phenomena as a "horsey" person. Is there something going on here CP that you could help me with.

Hope everyone had a great Easter.
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Old 2nd April 2018, 07:46 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Hi Twobets,
Yes, I am a horsey person. Apart from RaceCensus Database, doing some arbitrage, the punt, the horse rescue organisation I run, and the natural horsemanship training I have done for horse trainers, and ridden track work, I can tell you from speaking with various trainers, and spoken to quite a few of them in depth, that gear and rider changes are extremely significant. Just as some horses don't race well on synthetic tracks.
But beware, sometimes a trainer has a plan to get a drop in weight due to performance, or perhaps to get better odds for the stable next start, not this start or perhaps it's their last hope to see if things improve before retiring the horse.
Sometimes rider changes are purely because a jockey was injured, or a jockey can't make the weight.
I cannot provide statistics on rider changes for you, because my database doesn't work that way, just gives the jockey which rode the horse, but it's significant if a senior jockey like Damien Oliver, Craig Williams etc. is a jockey swap. Any senior jockey, not riding for the stable they usually race for and is a jockey swap, is good to keep an eye on.
Some trainers will won't tell you a thing, you have to be around the stable, others are quite open if you've had some dealings with them in the past.
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Old 2nd April 2018, 10:06 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
but it's significant if a senior jockey like Damien Oliver, Craig Williams etc. is a jockey swap.


Similar scenario and exactly the same two jockeys as I posted a while ago CP. I agree fully with gear changes, sometimes they work on the day, but it may be prudent to give them a couple of starts. May I add that sometimes in country stables a trainer needs to put on an inferior jockey (their trackwork jockey) even in town, as a bonus to ensure that this jockey continues to ride trackwork.
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Old 3rd April 2018, 12:50 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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By the way, what's the deal with Frankie Dettori? I thought he retired, yet I see he rode in Dubai?
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 295,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #5  
Old 3rd April 2018, 06:18 PM
TWOBETS TWOBETS is offline
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Smile Thanks

Many thanks CP for that insight into the workings of the trainer mind.

That really does support the annecdotal evidence that there's more than meets the eye to some jockey changes. I shall treat these instances with a lot more due diligence than I have been doing.
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