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  #1  
Old 11th June 2018, 11:28 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Default Lazy Punters Lose

I am starting this thread for myself. I have posted it here as it may resonate with a few of you. Hopefully it will get some of you also working hard.

Right now, I am being lazy and being lazy lets others catch up to what you are doing.

Don't get my wrong, I am still doing better then probably 99.99% of punters. But if I don't continue to evolve and improve I am not going to be around or in profit in the next 20 years.

I have not include a new data source or data component for months or even started looking at a new sport. This laziness has to stop. I have become complacent in my current profit and current status in life. I can do better in my punting if I put in the effort.

So today that has to stop. Today is the day to go back to my old ways and dedicate myself to making more money.

I will set myself some goals.

So lets get to my goals. I am currently making X dollars a year. In the next year I want to make 5 times that amount.Because I don't want to post my dollar amounts here I will break down my current profit in the last year (12 months till 1st June 2018) as 100 units. I need to make 500 units in the next year.

Goals over the next year:
1. Make 500 units in the next 12 months
2. Add 2 new sports to my analysis and data collection.
3. Add 400 new data points (not data sources) into my database. I expect 200 to go to the new sports and 200 to go to my existing sports.
4. Conduct a monthly risk analysis on all systems.
5. Read at least 24 books on statistics, punting, data analysis and/or data science in the next 12 months.

Where am I currently this month:
1. Made 18.65 unit this month already.
2. Reading 1 book.
3. Already conducted a risk review at the beginning of this month.
4. Added 1 new data point today to existing sports.

What I need to do this week:
1. Finish reading the book.
2. Add 5 data points.
3. Make money

This thread will be boring for most people as I won't be putting in where I get my new data as I regard that is my edge. I will review the books and anything I learn from them. This thread hopefully will show you what it takes if your serious.

If I do not post in here with an update each week can someone please remind me I am an idiot and need to get focused again.
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  #2  
Old 11th June 2018, 03:22 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
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Default

Quick question, is this your full time job?
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  #3  
Old 11th June 2018, 03:58 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thenewguy
Quick question, is this your full time job?


No. I work full time as well and generally put in excessive hours (50+ hours a week) into that as well. I am someone who doesn't like to sit wasting time and I also always want to get the best outcome whether that be for me or someone else.

This is all done as a hobby I probably take it a little more seriously then most people take a hobby though. The profits I make would eclipse most peoples salaries though.

In order tot meet my goals I probably only need to put in about 1-2 hours a day on top of my usual time which I can easily fit in considering the time I have been wasting playing games, watching tv, etc, lately.
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  #4  
Old 11th June 2018, 04:20 PM
Vortech
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Sounds like a well constructed plan UB.

When you say data point are you referring to a recording variable i.e. LS Finish?
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  #5  
Old 11th June 2018, 04:49 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Sounds like a well constructed plan UB.

When you say data point are you referring to a recording variable i.e. LS Finish?


Thanks.

Yes a data point would be a feature I could assess a selection against such as last start finish position, barrier, weather, Odds, etc in horse racing. IN football(soccer) it might be shots on goal, passes, possession stats, player ratings, etc.

I obviously have a lot of the data points already so generally the new data points are ratings methods, outputs from deep learning models, new websites with extra form, etc. I think a lot of it will be on the UK and USA racing as I have a lot of AUS already covered. I also have found a lot more data for my football(soccer) database that I can bring in.

I am already doing pretty good. I have coded a program to pull in 9 new data points today. Its not quite finished though and needs a bit more work before I would say its ready. I might finish those off tomorrow. I already have plans for another ratings system to be ingested in the next week so that should be ready for the weekend.

Its been a productive day already.
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  #6  
Old 11th June 2018, 04:58 PM
Vortech
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Sounds good and be interesting to follow on the forum.

What sort of coding are you using to record the data points?
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  #7  
Old 11th June 2018, 08:02 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Sounds good and be interesting to follow on the forum.

What sort of coding are you using to record the data points?


I code in various languages and use the best one for the job. Lots of python at the moment.
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  #8  
Old 12th June 2018, 06:05 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Just an update as I need to travel for work the rest of this week.

Reminder on the goals over the next year:
1. Make 500 units.
2. Add 2 new sports to my analysis and data collection.
3. Add 400 new data points (not data sources) into my database. I expect 200 to go to the new sports and 200 to go to my existing sports.
4. Conduct a monthly risk analysis on all systems.
5. Read at least 24 books on statistics, punting, data analysis and/or data science in the next 12 months.

Updated Monthly position:
1. Made 19.62 unit this month.
2. Reading 1 book (Half way done).
3. Already conducted a risk review at the beginning of this month.
4. Added 1 new data point today to existing sports.
5. In the process of adding another 9 data points at the moment. Expected to complete this on Saturday or Sunday.

As I'll be travelling I'll be doing a lot of reading rather than getting data points. I expect to add 9 data points this weekend though which is a solid start to the process.

Of course I forgot world cup was on (idiot) and that will eat into some of my spare time over the next month. I'll still aim to get a lot done though on minimal sleep.

Have a great week punting.
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  #9  
Old 16th June 2018, 11:28 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Well I spent the week travelling and I am totally screwed because of it. Lots of hard work just not on the punting side of things. Got a slight head cold now too which isn't going to make me productive. Life definitely gets in the way some time.

Updated Monthly position:
1. Made 21.03 unit this month.
2. Finished reading 1 book. I have written some learnings below.
3. Already conducted a risk review at the beginning of this month. (COMPLETED)
4. Added 1 new data point today to existing sports.
5. In the process of adding another 9 data points at the moment. Expected to complete this on Saturday or Sunday. Probably Sunday.


I finished reading Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch.

Learnings from the book include:
- He mentions a good punter needs to be a brain surgeon and a mad axeman. You need to know when to be one or the other in order to be very profitable. Its better being a brain surgeon and focusing on detail as this will help you win overall but you need the guts to bet big in order to be very profitable. Its a fine line balancing it all.
- He admits that he changes what he looks for all the time. He looks for situations which are underestimated by the public and doesn't care if that is a long shot or a favourite.
- He used a lot of good punting friends to bet parrallel with his own betting.
- He spends hours on form and watching videos to really understand the races. He then shortlists horses and only checks those horses racing each day. He eliminates about 80% of them for betting. After a day he reviewes every race to find more horses.
- He said fitness was important to keep the brain functioning properly. And no alcohol when betting.
- While he bets big he never bets in a way which will put his capital at risk long term. He bets a very small percentage of his bank so he can survive the inevitable losing runs.
- He takes advantage of bias a lot for his edges but that has disappeared in the last 10 years.

I saw a lot of similarities between the way he approached betting with how I do it, including a lo of the things I mentioned above. He had a lot more contacts in the industry then I do (mine are zero) and this got him a lot of insider information which he took with a grain of salt but it gave him horses to investigate and maybe make a big plunge on.

I feel that after reading the book I had a good idea on his mindset and it encouraged me to look at what was different between his approach and mine. Overall its very similar but I could pull the trigger a bit more and increase my staking to increase my profits. This was a good book for a punter who is already profitable as most losing punters will not get much out of the book except a good biography on his punting life.

Have a good day punting. Time to go do some programming on new data points.
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  #10  
Old 16th June 2018, 07:01 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I did well today with a bunch of time dedicated to reading and coding.

Started a book for a refresher in statistics "Statistics without Tears" by Derek Rowntree. Already about 10% of the way through as its fairly easy to read and work through for a statistics book.

I actually added 17 new data points to my database today which takes me to a total of 18 new data points this month. I expect to be able to add another 5-10 in the next few days. I can't be profitable without data so this is laying the foundation for future systems. The data won't become useful for at least 3 months and will not turn into any systems for at least 6-12 months unless I have been able to source historical data. So far only 1 of these data points has historical data of quality (I check it closely).
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