Osulldj,

What's the website for Sportscolour that you talked about?

I found the website - http://www.sportscolour.com.au

People should go and have a look.

Interesting figures.

Here's some sectionals

1200m race - 20/7/02 at Caulfield
Race won by Storm Prince
___________field__winner
last 200m__ 12_ 12
400-200__ 11.65_ 11.34
600-400__ 11.51_ 11.23
800-600__ 11.1_ 10.91
1000-800__ 10.7_ 11.03

This trend was consistent with several other sprints, basically its hammer and tong from the 1000m to 200m, then stagger over the line.

I only looked at one 2000m race, from the 1800m to 1400m the speed was good (positioning by jockeys i guess). Then the speed slowed until the 1000m. From there the speed picked up until the final 200m, where it dropped off again.

The figures seem to prove my idea about Sunline's success - she wins the race in the 1000m-200m section! She's able to run thru this section in good time, yet preserve enough energy to run the last 200m in 12 secs or so which is good enough if you run the previous 800m in good time and gap the field.


[ This Message was edited by: manikato on 2002-07-30 20:00 ]

[ This Message was edited by: manikato on 2002-07-30 20:01 ]

The times for 1000-1200 metre races have a similar look when dissected to those of humans running the 100m. The first quarter is a build up to top speed which is maintained for the second quarter. The last half is deceleration. Those horse that "flash" home and indeed the human runners that do the same are merely decelerating at a lesser rate than the others. It would be extremely rare in a sprint race for a final sectional to be quicker than the 800-600 split unless they trotted early.
I dabbled with those sportscoluour sectionals for a while and needed strong medication to sleep at night they were so mind boggling.
There are definately easier ways to make a buck on the punt.

I agree with you on this Hammers.

You could go insane if you looked at these figures too much.

A bit like that movie, A Beautiful Mind. You would start seeing hidden messages in newspapers and numbers on letter boxes.

Hi Manikato,

Glad you found the website. Yes you are right, you would go crazy trying to use Sportscolour data as part of a comprehensive approach to racing. The other thing is that some of their sectional times can be quiet inaccurate. When there is a problem they often have to use estimates.

On the whole though they are pretty good and a great tool for learning about the speed characteristics of races and the fact as I stated to Testa that the final 200m is always the slowes (excluding the start).

The point about Sunline is 100% correct, she wins her races by burning the field off between the 800m and 400m marks. She then tires from the 400 to 200 and most notably then from the 200 to WP. This is the way she won her two Cox Plates. By doing this the other horses are effectively gassed by the turn and while they make some ground, they don't have the class to win. Her tiring rate is far greater over 2000m than 1600m indicating that she is at her best at the mile. I have no doubt that she is world class over 1600m.

Northerly on the other hand is a versatile horse, he had shown in early races the ability to go at a reasonable speed early but then maintain that to the line. He does tire of course, but nowhere near as much as other horses. He is the strongest horse over the last 200m we have seen in a while. What is termed his fighting courage where he often gets headed but then comes back, is simply the other horses tiring more in the last bit and Northerly keeping going at a similar rate.

This is one reason i have always backed Northerly to beat Sunline and while he will always beat them when they meet. Northerly is strongest in the part of the race that Sunline is at her weakest. He has the ability to go with her and then keep coming as she tires. If you watch the video of their runs together thats exactly how it looks. In all cases, including the Cox Plate she gets away and he looks beaten but he just keeps coming. In last years Cox Plate, Northerly was the only horse who in the last 200m was travelling at a faster rate than he was was the first 1240m, all other runners were travelling slower.

In saying all that, Might & Power was even better than Northerly. He had the ability to cruise alot at what others would find a fast tempo but then accelerate away from the 600m mark.

He is by far the best horse I have seen in the past 10 years and would beat Northerly 7 times out of 10 and Sunline 10 times out of 10 over 2000m.

Osulldj,

You are spot on about M&P and Northerly. Try explaining this to the Sunline groupies however. They are blind to the fact that Sunline couldn't beat them over 2000m. At the mile she is great, but over 2000m she will always be beaten against quality on pace horses.

Thats ok Manikato, they're the people that keep her price so short on the occassion that have met and will meet again in the future. Their ignorance is our profit.

Don't get me wrong I love Sunline, but as we agreed she is tremendous at 1600m, and good enough to beat most at 2000m, except the countries very best 2000m horses.

Those who have beaten her over the distance are Intergaze, Fairway and Northerly who i'm sure you would agree amongst the countries best 2000m horses in the past 10 years. The others who might make this list she has never raced against.

Good luck to the great champion Mare though, deserving HOTY.