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  #11  
Old 6th September 2015, 07:05 PM
Pat123 Pat123 is offline
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I think crownbet are taking a different approach to bookmaking/business model and have confidence in their traders and analysts and want to get a good rep.
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  #12  
Old 7th September 2015, 05:50 AM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat123
I think crownbet are taking a different approach to bookmaking/business model and have confidence in their traders and analysts and want to get a good rep.
I don't think any business starts out with the idea of getting a bad reputation.
However even charities have to pay wages, so they take some of the earnings from the top, (sometimes there is very little left).

Bookies on the other hand are no charities, it's all about profit and I assure you when it comes down to profit vers. "good" rep, I know which side wins.

Besides what's a good rep for a bookie? Paying out on time and taking on reasonable wagers, that's all. The business model is the same for all, try to retain the losers and get rid of or restrict the consistent winners.
Enjoy while it lasts.
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  #13  
Old 7th September 2015, 02:11 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat123
Sorry, I should clarify I meant they create overs on favs compared to betfair lay. And I cannot remember an instance here where the fav has won.


I revisited this idea in the last hour. What it comes down too is the bookies have a nice 20% overround, that pays the wages and overheads. But like you say Pat, they employ traders of their own and use their skills in handicapping to pump out a bit more profit. They do that, as you say, by offering a price better than the lay price to attract some business (not arbers ), knowing that probability is on their side as they've done their own form, looked at the oppositions prices and thought they could do a bit better for little or no extra risk.

So casting my eye over all the bookies prices looking for at least 3 offering a price >= to the current Lay $. I've picked up a couple of hundred in the last hour just Laying that selection (not arbing), on the dogs and gallops. Probably just lucky but there is logic behind it. Now this is deja vu for me as I've been here before, wanted to implement an automated system but was let down by an odds comparison mob with the initials of the first two letters in DOOMBEN. (last time I mentioned them, I got sidelined by the mods)

Gary, do you still use them? and is yours integrated into excel? They weren't interested in helping anyone set it up last time I tried.
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  #14  
Old 7th September 2015, 02:25 PM
Pat123 Pat123 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
I revisited this idea in the last hour. What it comes down too is the bookies have a nice 20% overround, that pays the wages and overheads. But like you say Pat, they employ traders of their own and use their skills in handicapping to pump out a bit more profit. They do that, as you say, by offering a price better than the lay price to attract some business (not arbers ), knowing that probability is on their side as they've done their own form, looked at the oppositions prices and thought they could do a bit better for little or no extra risk.

So casting my eye over all the bookies prices looking for at least 3 offering a price >= to the current Lay $. I've picked up a couple of hundred in the last hour just Laying that selection (not arbing), on the dogs and gallops. Probably just lucky but there is logic behind it. Now this is deja vu for me as I've been here before, wanted to implement an automated system but was let down by an odds comparison mob with the initials of the first two letters in DOOMBEN. (last time I mentioned them, I got sidelined by the mods)

Gary, do you still use them? and is yours integrated into excel? They weren't interested in helping anyone set it up last time I tried.


Yeah I said the other day you could use them as a guide to laying horsess/favs :P
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  #15  
Old 7th September 2015, 02:39 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat123
Yeah I said the other day you could use them as a guide to laying horsess/favs :P


The automation idea mimics a free tool Betfair used to have, called the percentage advantage indicator. It used to show the current back price's % advantage to the Tote and you could nominate which one. It was terrific, but what did they do....got rid of it...too much help to the punter!

In the automation I have in mind, it'd scan the bookies prices and if there were 2 or 3 >= current lay$ at a set time fire a lay bet. Dunno if it'd work, but it'd be nice to trial it and record the outcomes?
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  #16  
Old 7th September 2015, 03:22 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
I revisited this idea in the last hour. What it comes down too is the bookies have a nice 20% overround, that pays the wages and overheads. But like you say Pat, they employ traders of their own and use their skills in handicapping to pump out a bit more profit. They do that, as you say, by offering a price better than the lay price to attract some business (not arbers ), knowing that probability is on their side as they've done their own form, looked at the oppositions prices and thought they could do a bit better for little or no extra risk.

So casting my eye over all the bookies prices looking for at least 3 offering a price >= to the current Lay $. I've picked up a couple of hundred in the last hour just Laying that selection (not arbing), on the dogs and gallops. Probably just lucky but there is logic behind it. Now this is deja vu for me as I've been here before, wanted to implement an automated system but was let down by an odds comparison mob with the initials of the first two letters in DOOMBEN. (last time I mentioned them, I got sidelined by the mods)

Gary, do you still use them? and is yours integrated into excel? They weren't interested in helping anyone set it up last time I tried.


Not sure exactly what you mean but I will have a shot R/P.

Do you mean say pick out a Corporate bookmaker(s)
Check their prices to say other corporates & then the on course market,
And if in certain races they appear to be continually the last,
To turn off a firming favourite or continually being the first,
To extend their odds of a horse appearing they want to take it on,
Then you want to tap into that & lay it for yourself based on what they do.

This could be any no's of reasons.

Their form analysts have it at a certain price which is,
Much shorter on course or with other corporates.

The stable who usually back it with them when it runs,
Have not so today.

Smart money from good judges are backing other horses,
To beat it.

It is much bigger on the tote(s) they can do a rough calculation,
With say Betfair & the 3 tab's final pools & can back it back to,
Hedge a large bet (note I said rough guess) if they get hit.

Track bias changing track ratings on the day now favours other horses,
So they reassess or just to entice punters as not much action is happening

Open market %'s were way to high to start with so they appear to,
Be wanting to lay something when all that is happening are the %'s,
Are now evening out.

This is the reason because of these anomalies I only record,
The on course prices not any corporate(s) odds because of the above.

Also if you decide on the corporate which analyst & what,
Meetings is he or she doing on any particular day.


It's not one doing all there are several that may contribute.

I have to be careful here in relation to the above paragraph
But let's just say that a certain,
Person on the forum was giving their odds & ratings to a certain,
Party on stipulated races & days thus was able to bet freely.

Now this was no longer happening therefore that persons prices,
And opinion is no longer being used, you get the drift.

To answer the other question yes I use them still,
But not the setup you wanted to do, just for the comparisons,
And scratchings track ratings dividends etc.

There are other sites to do comparisons but there,
Are not as many options as the one you mean.

To get back data from you know who, my interpretation from them,
Was this, we have the data & the setup however you need to transform,
It yourself, or get someone who can, they wouldn't even recommend anyone,
When asked for fear of legal ramifications.


Cheers.
Garyf.

Last edited by garyf : 7th September 2015 at 03:28 PM.
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  #17  
Old 7th September 2015, 04:02 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Pretty good wrap-up Gary

I was being less specific though with my logic which goes something like this:

Out of the 11 bookies and fixed price totes, if in the last 30 secs you see that a min of 3 are offering prices >= current Lay$, then that's a big head start! The lay price need to have commish added, say 6.5% but given the bookies have an overround of roughly 20+%, for them to offer Backers a sacrificial lamb price better than Lay$ and Betfair Back$ (even for that short 30 sec period) by a fair bit, might mean that they're sacrificing the profit on this selection and really hoping to make it on the rest. Their idea is to take the punters eye off the rest, and offer them a price to back this selection at huge overs....knowing full well that it's a decoy?

OK, maybe I'm just suspicious by nature? LOL....but it'd be nice to try and record a big wad of races and see if there's any a pattern there. It may well be they just use a computer following an algorithm based on whatever to set prices and there's no real guru overlooking anything and adjusting? if you collect these fixed odds prices for say July this year (I'm talking a few bookies), I can send you the Lay price for that period and you can see if there were a number that bettered the lay price and whether or not they went on to win?
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  #18  
Old 7th September 2015, 04:13 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Here's an example of what I'm talking about. Pinjarra 04 harness race today: The donkey with the Overs came no where. The lay price is the extreme RH column. For five bookies to offer Overs and they've got a 120% book compared to Betfairs 100%.
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  #19  
Old 7th September 2015, 05:12 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Pretty good wrap-up Gary

I was being less specific though with my logic which goes something like this:

Out of the 11 bookies and fixed price totes, if in the last 30 secs you see that a min of 3 are offering prices >= current Lay$, then that's a big head start! The lay price need to have commish added, say 6.5% but given the bookies have an overround of roughly 20+%, for them to offer Backers a sacrificial lamb price better than Lay$ and Betfair Back$ (even for that short 30 sec period) by a fair bit, might mean that they're sacrificing the profit on this selection and really hoping to make it on the rest. Their idea is to take the punters eye off the rest, and offer them a price to back this selection at huge overs....knowing full well that it's a decoy?

OK, maybe I'm just suspicious by nature? LOL....but it'd be nice to try and record a big wad of races and see if there's any a pattern there. It may well be they just use a computer following an algorithm based on whatever to set prices and there's no real guru overlooking anything and adjusting? if you collect these fixed odds prices for say July this year (I'm talking a few bookies), I can send you the Lay price for that period and you can see if there were a number that bettered the lay price and whether or not they went on to win?


Thanks for the offer R/P all my laying,
Will be based on bad selections that are,
Short in the market but rarely win that are,
In our database in certain price groups.

I see now exactly what you mean with the below post,
Will keep out as an opinion as without a selection to start,
With & exploit it's difficult to say long term if this is an angle,
Worth pursuing.

Certainly can't hurt to do a forward test now the process is in place,
Then go from there when you reckon sufficient data has been acquired.

If it works beauty, more money, if not no harm done we move on.

I can assure there are traders on the floor monitoring,
Everything not just a computer.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Last edited by garyf : 7th September 2015 at 05:15 PM.
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  #20  
Old 7th September 2015, 05:44 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Here's an example of what I'm talking about. Pinjarra 04 harness race today: The donkey with the Overs came no where. The lay price is the extreme RH column. For five bookies to offer Overs and they've got a 120% book compared to Betfairs 100%.


RP, I checked the race. I believe the selection highlighted was Mill Pond. At 10 secs to the jump it was showing 9.0 / 28.0 for the back/lay prices. So I assume your screenshot is showing the back price only. Your problem is there was not much money in the market when you were looking and if you automated that you would have lots of issues with delayed races, etc.
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