Just to throw another spanner in the works Hermes......statistics alone DO work. The plan I use is ONLY statistic based and I do OK.

The trick is to find the right combination of all the various stats available.

For instance in my plan, how many lengths a horse finished from the winner last start is irrelevant. WHERE it finished is more important.

Another tip...don't put too much weight on the course/distance factor, it falls into the "over rated" basket.

Incidentally, I have only ever used The Sportsman, in my view the best form guide in this country.

That's more what I meant. In other words you can't say that 50% of races are won by horses with a placing at their previous start, and then back every horse with a placing. It's more a combination of factors as you say Privateer.

Also I think that course / distance do matter in my opinion. While it may not be essential to include that a horse won on this course or over this distance - if it failed at every attempt then you have to bear this in mind or you're just throwing money away!


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-24 15:06 ]

I use 3 strikes you're out rule.
Doesn't always work, but saves a lot of losing bets.

I'll clarify a little. Firstly, I probably have a maximum of 6 bets per week. When I apply my method to race fields it does not include the course/distance factor at all.

When I check my results I constantly look for statistical trends that can perhaps be applied in addition to my method. Of the horses that I have (successfully) backed, the course/distance consideration was not an important issue.

In the overall scheme of things (according to all my analyses) the C/D factor was in the 80% rather than the 20%.

Are you talking about Track/Distance or Track and Distance separately???

I don't even look at Track/Distance combined, but do look at Distance stats and Track stats separately.

Individually.

Let's say a horse's stats looked like this:
Distance: 5-0-0-0
Track : 5-0-0-0

That wouldn't bother you?????
I would eliminate start away.

On the face of it I'd think track and distance stats are important. I've started to pay more attention to them recently. But I don't doubt you can have a succesful system without them. Aren't there some stats to guide us on things like this? Of the two factors I'd think distance is the more important. I remember running in athletics. How far I had to run was more important than the venue. I'm sure its the same for a horse, even if they prefer certain tracks. So I usually factor in performance over distance and glance at the track stats for anything peculiar.

Seems to me the two primary characteristics of a race horse, or any racing animal, are (1) speed and (2) distance. A horse must be fast and be able to run the distance (endurance) or its not a race horse. Wouldn't it make sense to assess form on these two things first and foremost, perhaps?

Chief, I reckon at Distance = 5-0-0-0, Track = 5-0-0-0, I'd eliminate it. Looks like a meaningful stat to me, in this instance, and you'd have to say the prognosis is not good.

I note that it is unpredictable where you will find "meaningful" stats. I note this from reviewing old races (losses usually, alas). In one case you look at a winner and the track stat, say, stands out. Five starts, three wins, two places. Ordinary stats otherwise, but the track stat is outstanding. And it wins, and with hindsight you can say, well, look at that track stat, no wonder. But the track stat may be irrelevant in most other cases. I've got this hair-brained idea of searching out the "peculiar and unusual" stat in a field. Just an idle idea...

Thanks for the informative discussion all.

Hermes

Chief de Beers was one of the few horses I can think of that you worried about the track before you worried about the distance. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 17 wins ALL at Doomben.

Yes my namesake was a gun at Doomben, but hopeless every where else - even at EF which is next door he never won there.

I agree that Distance is more important - my stats say it is - but there are exceptions to every rule.

The deal with Track stats is often class. ie provincial horse that has failed in the city - thus maybe 0/3 at the track.

Also certain tracks favour frontrunners, others backmarkers - Difficult for backmarkers to win on tight twisting tracks.

Track/distance comes into play a lot with Flemo 1200m - you need a strong horse to win there - often 1400m types win 1200m races there.