Dr Pangloss wrote:

"I think you could stick a successful system on the footpath outside Randwick races and it wouldn't make a jot of difference to it's profitability."

"To prove my point ( and TwoBETS please prove yours) Dr Ziemba et al demonstrated way back in 1984 that the place divvies on short priced favorites were inefficient. That is, backing shorties for the place could generate profits. Such inefficiencies in the place market across the three TABs still prevail today."

I would have to agree with the sentiments of the first statement above.

The second statement is spot on. Anyone who wants to spend the time at it, could make a nice little earn on place divvies from short favorites. This well know anomaly re favorite odds, does seem to support the sentiments expressed in the first statement.

Seems like 2 very valid points [?].

Punters are overly paranoid about system secrecy. Any profitable system that was printed here for free will be dropped like hot cakes by most users at the first decent run of outs. Have the odds shortened over the years for short priced favorite's place div. because they are well know? Not by a cent.

Hi Crash,
I'm not privvy to this well known anomaly. Would you care to fill in those of us who are less enlightened.

KV

Kenny, you have a quote there you are assigning to me that belongs to someone else.

Being:

"To prove my point ( and TwoBETS please prove yours) Dr Ziemba et al demonstrated way back in 1984 that the place divvies on short priced favorites were inefficient. That is, backing shorties for the place could generate profits. Such inefficiencies in the place market across the three TABs still prevail today."

Sorry mate, I missed a page when I read this thread. I'll look up the original reference.

KV

It is true that a winning system will prevail, because of so much impulse money and so many different strategies and opinions.
I released a system last year, and a lot of people have it, if anything the profit has increased proportionally.

It is true that the market price of short price favourites is less efficient, but there is no evidence to support that it is inefficient, by being able to profit from place betting. This is based on the last three years figures using the best TAB dividend.

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Chrome,

I would have to agree with you about the figures and if you extend them further back you will probably find the same result. However, I think Dr. Pangloss is refereeing to 'exploiting' the inefficiency, not backing every short priced favorite for the place which I think your figures are referring to [?].

I have done it a few times for short periods but it is such a mind numbingly boring exercise, I always quickly dropped it. Being selective is the key to profit in that area of betting and that is where the inefficiency lies, selectively being able to exploit it profitably.

Unfortunately, it will continue

http://www.pangloss.com/index.html?

I am busted. At last I have been busted.

Time for a new a character - any ideas Chrome?

Hi Crash,

I've always found the inefficiency to be far greater for win betting on these shorties. The very best I could do with filters was -2.88% LOT for the place using best TAB price.

There is one system that has a 4.89% place POT based on speed figures, but again the win POT is 14.45%. (Athough it's a long stretch between selections, so not a great deal of action).

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Let's churn out some numbers then from June 2001 thru end July 2005 relying on NSW TAB divs for starters paying 2.00 (WIN) or less Sat metro Adel, Bris, Melb and Syd. Results are for the PLACE.

bets 807
placed 684
SR% 84.8%
P/L -35.78 $1 units
PoT -4.4%

Apply two simple filters - eliminate fields 7 runners or less, eliminate maidens:

bets 485
placed 412
SR% 84.9%
P/L -5.06
PoT -1.0%
ave div $1.17

Now allow for a modest 'Best TAB' premium of 7 cents per winning (place) dividend:

P/L 25.88 units
PoT 5.34%
ave div $1.24

Chrome your unsubstantiated figures of a 7% LoT can not be reconciled with the above results. Either the data base is hopelessly flawed or you ought to refund all money paid by your many many subscribers. Which is it?


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