Thomas Johansson over Novak Djokovic @ $1.402

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit

After seeing Dent dismantle Djokovic in straight sets yesterday I cannot see Johansson having any troubles in this one. Although he boasts bucketloads of natural talent, Djokovic seems to struggle to out manoeuvre his opponents, opting for the bash and crash method when times are tough. Novak was unable to find any rythm on his serve yesterday and in turn was broken twice in his first two service games. Johansson, although not having the greatest year last year, finished with a 19-14 win/loss record on hardcourt and seems to play well on Australian soil. He should prove too experienced for the young Serbian and I can see him winning this in two.

Good luck all

Attached Files

Betting Records 2006.xls (61.5 KB, 688 views)

Today we have a few short priced favourites that tickle my fancy.

Pending:

James Blake over Alberto Martin @ $1.17
Start time: 2:30pm EDST


Considering today:

Peter Wessels over Todd Reid @ $1.33
Start time: ~9:30pm EDST

Nikolay Davydenko over C Rochus @ $1.20
Start time: 11:30pm EDST

Igor Andreev over Potito Starace @ $1.31
Start time: 12:00am EDST


Will post final plays well before first match (Wessels v Reid)

Good luck all

Betsy

Thanks Betsy,
You'll see me over there at menstennis as "aussieigor" when they let me in?
if they let me in.

Peter Wessels over Todd Reid @ $1.33

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Wessels has shown good form of late with two wins from two at this years Hopman Cup. However this play is more against Reid than capitalising on Wessels form. Reid had an injury plagued 2005 and never really posted any respectable results. The only reason this price is around the $1.30 mark is due to the crowds support of Reid. However, this has never proven helpful in the past for Reid. Sure he posted some wins in 04 on Australian soil, but they were against pretty average opposition. He also struggled with nerves upon representing Australia in Davis Cup. Overall I can't go past a straight sets win by Wessels here, he is far more experienced and the indoor court with help his big serving game.

More play/s to come

Sure Betsy it's easy.

If you're working out probabilities of a player winning a match (such as 60-40)

then you just divide 1 by the % chance of winning (in this case 60%)

So, 1/0.60 = $1.66

and

1/0.40 = $2.50

That gives you a market marked to 100%

Blake wins with ease, 6-3 6-3.

Papyrus - Will see you at MTF soon, it shouldn't take long to activate your account

thebookie - Thanks champ, that's easier than I imagined, and to think I just completed Specialist Maths last year


Nikolay Davydenko over C Rochus @ $1.20

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Another short priced fav here, doesn't worry me at all as this one is overs. Davydenko is by far the superior player here and comes up against the lesser of the Rochus brothers in what should be a routine victory for the Ukraine. Davydenko is an all surface player (maybe not grass), able to match it with the best on clay whilst boasting a 22-14 win/loss record on hardcourt. Last year he beat the likes of Hrbaty, Ancic, Gonzalez and Berdych on hardcourt and only really lost to quality players. Davydenko played well at this tournament last year, losing to the eventual winner (Federer) in the SF. On the other hand, Rochus showed glimpses of good form last year but never really showed anything that would make me think twice about this result. Davydenko in two.

Best of luck to you all

PS. If you don't like the odds then get stuffed (just kidding). You might like to place Wessels and Davydenko in a multi for odds around $1.50

Wessels wins 7-5 6-4

Davydenko wins 6-3 6-1

Another perfect day, going 3-0, +1.57 Units

Attached Files

Betting Records 2006.xls (61.5 KB, 617 views)

Tomas Berdych over Andy Murray @ $1.84

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Last time the two met Berdych had a number of chances to win the match, and should have taken them. Berdych finished last year off well beating the likes of Ljubicic, Ferrero, Stepanek and Coria. If he carries that form to Australia then this should be an easy win for the Czech. Murray on the other hand only really had one good tournament on hc, making the final in Thailand where he was beaten by Federer. However, for the majority of last year Murray played Challengers and even some Futures. I don't believe he is at the level where he can consitantly beat quality players such as Berdych, however, that doesn't mean the Brits can't hype him up as the next big thing.

Sorry about the late notice, I took Berdych for 0.5 units at $1.84 when the market came out but was too tired to post a writeup. Match starts in 30 mins.