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  #11  
Old 28th March 2006, 10:29 PM
manygeese manygeese is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duritz
You have it a little wrong. 6000 selections, 26%, $4.20 = around 6500 collect if you only have $1 on each, but who only has $1 on each?? Even if you only have $10 on each you still make $5000 over the two years. Have $100 on each and you make $50,000 in two years.


100 bucks on each you invest 600,000 dollars. Collect 50,000. You can do much better with a bank over a two year period without involving a 11,300 dollar 'draw down' prospect.

To win at gambling ultimately you have to be able to build a bank, not make at the same rate as a bank offers.

I still could be wrong but I can't see it.
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  #12  
Old 28th March 2006, 10:41 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Expected run of outs for 35% is 16
Based on 3 lots of 10,000

I believe one should have a bank of 3.0 x the longest theoretical run of outs.
In this case 48 , if betting level stakes.= 2% of bank.
1% of bank as mentioned prior would be even safer.

50 Point Staking Plan
Heres a safe staking plan one might like to experiment with.
Divisor starts at 50 divided into target of $100.
With a Starting Bank $200
Deduct win dividend price off the divisor after each win & deduct the profit off the target after each win so as to calculate the next bet.
Start from the beginning as soon as half of the target is won , in this case $50
This helps prevent the bets from becoming too large for the bank to cope with.
e.g.
Tar---Divisor--O/L---Dividend---P/L
100-----50-----2-----L
102-----50-----2-----L
104-----50-----2---w$11.00---+20
84------39-----2-----L
86------39-----2---w$6.00---+10
76------33-----2---w$14.00---+26
50------19-----3-----Objetive reached..We would now rule off & start from the beginning because we have reached our objective of reaching half the Target figure.

If one wants to start with a lower divisor (not recomended) , one will see how the bets become larger after a run of outs , so be prepared for it, because it will come , no matter how strong a selection method may be, its just part of punting.

Remember ---Punting does not owe us a living.

Cheers.
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  #13  
Old 28th March 2006, 10:45 PM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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The big thing you're forgetting ManyGeese is that you don't have the $600,000 to begin with. And betting $100 you don't need it - you only need $10,000. So, with $10,000 only level staking $100 each you make $50,000 in the two years. Show me a bank that will make you $50,000 interest over 2 years with a capital of $10,000. That's the point you're failing to see.

Also, I was talking about 1% increasing/reducing. With a $10,000 bank, $100 bets on each selection increasing/reducing (1%) your $10,000 actually becomes $168,000. Again, show me a bank that can make you $158,000 interest in two years off a $10,000 capital.

Bhagwan - your last commnt, ie that no matter how strong a selection method, runs of outs will occur, is exactly the point I am trying to make: one must be prepared for them, they will come. I therefore agree entirely with you.

Last edited by Duritz : 28th March 2006 at 10:48 PM.
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  #14  
Old 28th March 2006, 11:32 PM
KennyVictor KennyVictor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Gambler
In the first 3 months Jan to March I bet on 130 races for 48 winners for a srike rate of 36.9%
Maybe my maths is weird but I make that a strike rate of 22%. You may have got 48 winners from 130 races but you actually got 48 winners from 218 bets. On your system I could bet every horse in every race and claim a strike rate of 100%

Using 22% and a average dividend of $5.48 over 218 bets I got a max drawdown between 15 and 32 as a rule over several runs. This would indicate a bet of perhaps 2% of bank might be safe.

BUT !!!!

218 bets is not enough to judge a system on - you may have had a good period or you may have had a bad one. The strike rate or average dividend could be quite different from the one you got in your test period.

Heres the maximum drawdown simulator if you want to play with it.

http://home.iprimus.com.au/jfc2000/drawdown.htm

KV
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  #15  
Old 28th March 2006, 11:32 PM
KennyVictor KennyVictor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duritz
I have been testing a system which over two years and 6000 bets, with a strike rate of 26%, and had a max drawdown of 113 bets.
Have you tried the drawdown simulator Duritz? With your 4.20 dividend I got a max drawdown of 119 bets - remarkably similar to what you got in real life. Funny thing is I tried another 25 times and got values from about 40 - 92 so maybe your two year run was just a plain unlucky 1 in 25 year event. It could be a better system than you think.
KV
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  #16  
Old 28th March 2006, 11:51 PM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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Those are the words we want to hear KV!! Here here!!
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  #17  
Old 29th March 2006, 01:17 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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KV, hear hear, Duritz, I really think you've cracked it there. I have 3 seperate plans showing a profit now into the 3rd year but not as good as that, and I'm getting the absolute BEST returns available. (well as far as I know that is)

As far as the comparison to bank interest is concerned let's just GROAN!

Go for it mate!!
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  #18  
Old 29th March 2006, 07:53 AM
manygeese manygeese is offline
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groan. I guess the 8.5% bets per day is the secret. 8.5 that is.
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  #19  
Old 29th March 2006, 08:13 AM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KennyVictor
Have you tried the drawdown simulator Duritz? KV


Yep have KV - like you got varying results, did not record them at the time but they seemed to be around the 60-70 mark on average. I'm sure the biggest one was not much (if any) more than the 113 I've seen already in the research of this sys, so you may be right. May have a cracker. Am punting it, it's a mere three days old so far (and up 11 bets after three days, ripper of a start), I guess the proof will be in the punting.
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  #20  
Old 29th March 2006, 08:14 AM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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Manygeese - yeah that's part of it. Thing is, to compare it to a bank it's like a compound interest rate of 7% (the profit on turnover) which compounds a lot more times than the banks do.
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