Surely there is an absolute fortune to be made from inside info.

By inside info, I don't mean hush hush stuff, I mean what's not in the formguide.

If a trainer knows his horse has no chance of running in the first four, surely any lay price is acceptable?

If we know that a horse is coming back from injury / illness, has missed trackwork, is untractable in running, cannot win on a Heavy track etc etc.

There is a fortune to be made - BUT you must KNOW this to be the case, not speculate, because all it takes is one or two bad calls to bring it all undone, especially at decent odds.

My next project is Harness horses that break in running. I'm not sure, but I believe it's only during score up to the mobile or standing start, if they break they get stood down pending trial.

I have a small list of reknown breakers compiled already, when they go around at short odds, that's the lay time.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Go through the gear changes [most punters don't]. Any horse with any gear change is suspect, but if it has bar plates or a tail chain it has positively no hope and if the horse has glue-on shoes it's there for the scenery. I read somewhere that only 2 horses won last year with glue-on shoes fitted:-)

Of course there must be plenty of money made from laying with some inside knowledge. I also feel you can make decent profits without the inside word, just thorough form analysis and responsible staking plan. I think this can only be done consistantly by laying false favourites, or vunerable favourites at short odds. If you have a strong selection process, that can pick losers 80% of the time instead of 70%, even with an average price of 3.50, you should make tidy profit long term. As for harness, if you can get short odds of a notorious breaker, then you are doing well. You are then still at the mercy of chance. But you would probably have a good edge long term if you stuck at it and kept tabs on things as you say you are. Good luck with it.

__________________
All generalizations are dangerous.

That's exactly what I'm getting at crash, knowledge like this is indeed money for jam.

Maybe I should wear a tail chain too, as I'm often accused of sucking air through my anus, but usually it's the reverse!

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

I once lost my laying bank after 10, yes 10 favourites won in a row overseas

U.S. U.K. Ireland - 3 meetings 10 in a row - a real nightmare.

After that, I learned to be selective and do it a different way.

A bank I built up from $250AUD to over $3,500AUD - live and learn.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

All good money spinners:

Belmont
r6/16 SUMMER NATION.. bar plates

Murry Bridge
r6/2 PINK FIT.. tongue tie again [horses hate these things and run accordingly]
r6/ 3 BELLARGO.. tongue tie again
r8/ 12 NORTHWOOD tongue tie again
WARWICK FARM
r7/8 ATHELNOTH.. Approved Race Plates (Front) Back On Approved Race Plates (Hind) Back On, Standard Race Tips (Front) Off Standard Race Tips (Hind) Off. [serious foot problems]
Werribee
r6/7 ALI SHUFFLE.. tongue tie first time

Which was the Group 1 horse that ran and won with a tongue tie on but then never lived up to it.

I remember it was the clash of Helenus and one other, and I'm not sure if it was Helenus or the other one which ran with a tongue tie.

I seem to recall it running down the straight at Flemington with most of it's tongue hanging out the side of it's mouth.

What worries me about tongue ties is that the horse wears it to prevent it from half swallowing or choking down on it's tongue or getting it's tongue over the bit, but the horse cannot swallow properly, so surely there is a risk of choking down on it's own spit???

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Dare I ask Chrome, without giving too much away, what is your preferred method of laying?

__________________
All generalizations are dangerous.

Dinner and a movie

O.K. I'll answer sensibly.

All my methods whether backing or laying revolve around the same ideas. It's an angle rather than a method I guess.

Without getting into the Geldings thing again, here is an example I posted elsewhere and also replied to Partypooper re Moodometer two weeks ago.

(snipped)When Mares backup within a very short period of time, they are not
consistent, they need longer to recover.

Take Moodometer, went around almost odds on and ran nowhere in Perth two
Saturday's ago.

There are two advantages to this knowledge, a mare which does back up and
win is invariably well above average and a lot of them are champions.

Glamour Puss
Makybe Diva
Private Steer
River Dove
Sunline
La Bella Dama

All very hand mares and a couple of champions. The point is, they back up
and win and go on to bigger and better things. The one's that don't go on
with it, usually go out to stud or out with injury, not through non
performance.

Laying mares that are backing up is also a money spinner, as only a handful
can do it, so best to check if they've done it before.

So watch out for mares that backup and win and follow them.

Moodometer was rated 100 on Techform, she was backing up within 7 days and
was only beaten 2.0 lengths previous start in a Listed race and won her race
previous to that. She went around at $2.20.

Immediately that was a flag to me, short price, a mare and backing up
quickly.

So what of the rest of them, where to look....

Volition rated 96
Scenic assault rated 95
Cat In A Hat rated 94
Hotel Casuarina rated 93
Legend Express and Star Trek rated 92
Beyond Dispute rated 91

Volition won a Welter 7 days ago, was a gelding and rated highly.
Scenic Assault was beaten previous start by 7.5 lengths.
Cat In A Hat was beaten 4 lengths in a Welter previously.
Hotel Casuarina beaten 3.5 lengths in a Welter.
Legend Express only beaten 0.3L in a Welter 7 days ago.
Star Trek beaten 5.8 lengths in an Open
Beyond Dispute beaten 2.8L in an Open 14 days ago.

Selections then by class performance and fitness had to be Volition, Legend
Express and Beyond Dispute, all others were beaten too far to improve and
have a shake at this. (my personal cut off is 3 lengths beaten margin).

The winner was Beyond Dispute @ $22.70 the placings were filled by Scenic
Assault and Cat In A Hat.
So Volition and Legend Express didn't fire, the two high rated horses ran
the placings even though they were well beaten last start.

It really doesn't prove much, other than Moodometer was extremely
vulnerable, as there were a few geldings rated very close to her which were
rated just below her and fit.

This is just one example of the application of my method.

Out 3 units, in 22.70 units.

I can count on one hand the number of mares that can do it successfully, even when dropping two or three classes or up to 5kg, and they are exceptional - the champions go up in weight or class and do it, but the percentage is so small, it's a very lucrative area.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

LOL.... I asked for that.

__________________
All generalizations are dangerous.