Could be a challenging day with big fields making it hard to get our 11.00 cut-off. Nothing at the Valley today. Good luck with it though

CHEL04-03 Semper Paratus
CHEL04-05 Tic Toc Tac
CHEL06-09 Manhattan Sky
CHEL08-08 Dekoda Gold
DOOM04-05 Sectagonal
DOOM05-09 Ritzy Lady
DOOM07-02 Mitanni
GCST03-01 Ace Arena
GCST04-07 Foxie Em
GCST06-06 Chain Of Thought
GCST07-06 Kirralee Queen
GCST08-10 Tag
NCLE06-10 De Rigueur
NCLE08-05 Delago Star
RAND02-06 Sharamagic
RAND04-04 Jeteye
RAND04-07 Stable Talk
RAND06-12 Hesperia
SALE08-04 Emgee Rex
SALE09-02 Zephyr Speed
SALE09-12 Hayward
SALE10-14 Sunset Plaza

BLMT and TWBA to follow

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

BLMT05-06 Boy Canny Go
BLMT06-04 Cat In A Hat
BLMT08-05 Legend Express
TWBA01-01 Wisdom Of Joy
TWBA05-10 The Pianist

Good luck. Will post the results and summary tomorow night.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

A good day with a clean sweep for the "11.00 or less" division, and a nice 26.00 winner for the "11.50 or greater". So both divisions ended with a good profit.

There was some over enthusiastic laying on some of the selections, and I'm sure a few of them were "artificially" pushed over the 11.00 cut-off. The best example of this was Jeteye which I managed to lay at an average of 9.66 only to see it pushed out to 12.50, thirty seconds later. There were some silly prices taken guys.

Prices from the B.A.T.

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT06-04 Cat In A Hat 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT08-05 Legend Express 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
DOOM04-05 Sectagonal 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
DOOM07-02 Mitanni 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST07-06 Kirralee Queen 6.80 ... LOST +1.00
NCLE06-10 De Rigueur 5.30 ... LOST +1.00
SALE09-12 Hayward 5.00 ... LOST +1.00
SALE10-14 Sunset Plaza 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA01-01 Wisdom Of Joy 7.80 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA05-10 The Pianist 9.20 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - May 26th
----------
Number of Selections: 86.00
Observed Successes: 78.00
Observed Strike Rate: 90.70%
Expected Successes: 69.92
Expected Strike Rate: 81.19%
Advantage: 11.72%
Success due to luck: 0.24%
Profit: +34.50 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.90 units
Net Profit: +30.60 units
Net ROI: +35.58%
====================


====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT05-06 Boy Canny Go 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL04-03 Semper Paratus 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL04-05 Tic Toc Tac 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL06-09 Manhattan Sky 48.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL08-08 Dekoda Gold 17.50 ... LOST -1.00
DOOM05-09 Ritzy Lady 55.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST03-01 Ace Arena 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST04-07 Foxie Em 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST06-06 Chain Of Thought 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST08-10 Tag 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
NCLE08-05 Delago Star 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND02-06 Sharamagic 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND04-04 Jeteye 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND04-07 Stable Talk 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND06-12 Hesperia 29.00 ... LOST -1.00
SALE08-04 Emgee Rex 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
SALE09-02 Zephyr Speed 26.00 ... WON +25.00

Results April 21st - May 26th
----------
Number of Selections: 110.00
Observed Successes: 10.00
Observed Strike Rate: 9.09%
Expected Successes: 5.50
Expected Strike Rate: 5.00%
Advantage: 81.93%
Success due to luck: 13.53%
Profit: +99.50 units
Commission @ 5%: -9.97 units
Net Profit: +89.53 units
Net ROI: +81.39%
====================

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Guys

I'm going to stop posting the selections. The lurkers are starting to make the prices pretty dangerous and really aren't doing anybody any favours. I'm happy to e-mail the selections out on a Saturday morning till the end of June. After which I'll start hitting the lay side properly. If you're a 200+ poster or somebody I've spoken with in the past, leave your e-mail here in a masked format eg.

username at domain dot com dot au

and I'll put you on the list. I'll use this thread to post the results.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

That is disappointing Pixie. I always enjoy watching someones methods and without actually backing or laying your selections was still keeping a close eye. With the loss of your method this just gives another reason to visit this forum less and less. Good luck and I hope they continue to perform for you!

Thank's Pug. Appreciate your feedback

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

If you prefer not to leave your e-mail address here then send an e-mail to

angrypixie2007-propun at yahoo dot com dot au

Please include your forum name in the e-mail

You'll need to leave a posting here as confirmation so we don't get anybody pretending to be who they're not.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

That's a shame Pixie, you seem to be going great guns....didn't I tell you they'd come out of the woodwork

I understand your price grief though, my thread has plummeted down to breakeven for May almost, and it is totally against the trend.
The last 56,000 races plus two months were showing a great return and then pow go the prices.
It's not the strike rate - it's the prices.
What you have to do is turn it to your advantage and simply do the reverse - I love this back or lay caper

__________________
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Hi Chrome

The lay side does appear to be going ok. Back side too. I may even review my lay only outlook of life.

I really don't mind sending these off to the locals for a few more weeks, it's the guests that are most likely doing the damage. The median prices are changing quite a bit and I reckon about three of Saturdays "11.50 or greater" selections would have started at below 11.00 on any other day. I was especially suspicious when I saw bids and offers bumping around the 11.00 mark when the tote prices were quite different.

I'm not a great believer in coincidence so I reckon your generousity with sharing your "Interesting E-mail" system has probably bought you a bit unstuck. Once it's out there you've completely lost control, so who knows who's using it now. It is wonderfully inventive though and as you say there's always the reverse as an option.

I'm not sure there will be too many come out of the woodwork, but if they do they are welcome.

As a matter of interest did anybody back the $26.00 winner this week and the $34.00 last week? Anybody???

PS: Your on the list Chrome although I think it'll just be you and me

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Just me interested in these tips then by the looks. I could have been sleeping in an hour longer on Saturdays if somebody had mentioned that before

At least I know it wasn't the locals getting set at the silly prices then. Offer above still stands.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash