G'day Crash, for most of the time you are probably right, but this plan is designed to improve from "BREAK EVEN" so I have it down as pretty safe, especially if the extra safety measures as I outlined are incorporated, so I see it as a bet to nothing, in the sense that if it performs as normal you will at least break even , if you do well then ,...you do better.

In fact it's not that far removed from 1% of bank (level stakes) never reducing, that has to be pretty conservative doesn't it?

Are you claiming to be part of that 5% crash? Just curious.

What ever floats your boat crash.
If your in the top 5%, good luck, and that goes for anybody else who claims to be.

__________________
At the feast of ego everyone leaves hungry

partypooper,

I like your suggested modifications to the staking method. Its a very interesting adjustment that makes the plan more conservative.

Thanks for that ... I might just look into it a bit more.

Good Luck.

Top Rank,

I've never claimed to be in or out of the 5%. I might have claimed I have done OK over this or that period, but a consistently profitable punter?

The only thing I have claimed is I'd hate to be a professional punter living off the punt [even if good enough]. Not all profitable punters though are living off the punt. Probably about .05% of punters.

Bragging rights on forums are cheap. Over the years claims of X amount of long term profits from this or that selection or staking system or from personal form study etc. have been endless here. However, what you will never see from most of these claimants is selections up front. In fact I don't remember ever seeing even one of them enter a punting comp. let alone put up their selections [pre-post] over a decent period in this or the other section of this forum. Of course when asked they mostly say they select and bet just before the jump [funny that]. Naturally, too late to put up selections pre-post. So they don't have to prove anything :-))

Once I put up daily tips for about 3 to 4 mths. from my form study [not a system]. So about 90 or so days of selections. The end result from recollection was around 33% POT for the period.
I stopped with the tips because one sour punter [obviously not following the tips :-)) ] basically accused me of 'cheating' after one of my selection got up at $28w. These were all pre-race tips [many of them at very good odds]. I mean, I was whacking all the tips up early in the morning! End of my daily selections of course. The thread is searchable and I think Party remembers it.

So, am I part of the 5% of profitable punters? 3mths. of daily tips at excellent profit might just have been a 'lucky' run from a poor punter or a high point in another good year from a good punter[?]
Results, some very good indeed and others not so good from comps. I run or enter aren't conclusive of anything either.

So sorry Top Rank, I can't answer the loaded? :-)) question you've asked, unless I can prove my answer and any idiot can make up a fake long term profit and loss record. I can only prove what happens to my pre-post selections I put up in the forum, nothing else.

Sorry Kiwi, your making false claims here, not this boy.

If not, please present any post where I have made the claims of being among the top 5% of punters as you say I have. Your the one doing the fibbing here.

Party,

I'm pretty sure it's fairly safe too. My point really is: TAB and Bookies have all the time in the world and even the most timid and [almost] safe progressive staking system will hit a long run of outs and go belly up. If it's that close to 1% of bank punting, why bother?

Crash i used, if you are, i did not say that you said you were in the top 5%.

Most people i know who win, get inside stable info.

We had a source for a while and won handsomely.The guy passed on, and we went back to hit and miss.

Recently i have been winning following jockeys.Sooner or later the good run will end, that is punting.

I intend using PP's modification to lessen the impact when the losing streak happens.

__________________
At the feast of ego everyone leaves hungry

Crash, yes I remember your nags doing eally well, and in fact you and I had a bit of a tipping comp for the place where you beat me hands down as well. Not taking anything away from that but I agree it doesn't prove much as you(anyone) could win for 2 years and then lose the lot in 1. I used to back the nags like that in the uk, you know all guts, it really scares me now, I've calmed down with old age.

Why bother with the retirement plan, well it provides a goal and keeps yer interested doesn't it?

Well it WAS your challenge Party, not mine [ serves you right :-)) ].

And yep, short term results prove nothing. I studiously avoid making [unprovable] claims about punting prowess and yes your right, for some punters a very non-aggressive staking plan is a good interest if no big money is involved.

My original post on page one here to a new punter query, was obviously a tongue-in-cheek warning about listening to the loss-chasing staking preachers, who are certain the method generates profit from loss, or more long term profit than level stakes % of Bank betting.