Really starting to warm up to the forgotten horse of the Spring, Universal Prince... Love the way he finishes his races off. One of my fav's...

Notherly, Helene Vitality, Republic Lass

Every year there are always touts about overseas contenders and personally I have always treated them with a grain of salt. So far it has been to my own profit.

However, don't let Beekeeper get under your guard this year. A colleague of mine has very strong links to some serious punters in the UK (who also follow Aust racing) and they believe that at the weights and over 2400m he has this field covered (if he races to his ability on the day of course).

In betting Beekeeper has been backed to win an absolute fortune to the point where a number of Australia's prominent bookmakers will not expose themselves to any more for significant sums on the horse. Of course that doesn't mean he will win, my main point is that we should consider him as a genuine chance.

He likes to race in the first 5 or 6 and by all reports the stable is very pleased with his work since arriving in Australia. He has drawn in barrier 6 so looks like he will get a perfect run just behind the speed.

Personally I stood him out as the CC winner in doubles with 6 of the now favoured runners in the Melbourne Cup, at massive odds relative to what they are now.

My own assessment is that he is a realitic $9-10 chance, so there is probably not alot of betting value left. However if you are rating the race, certainly allow enough in your percentages to represent the fact that he has a very good winning chance.

If he wins it will be a big betting coup for his supporters and then a nervous wait until the Melbourne Cup to see if I can cash in.

If he gets well beaten of course he will just be another hyped overseas contender who failed to live up to expectations.

Final Field - Caulfield Cup with barrier draw.

No Horse Trainer Barrier Wt
1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 10 58
2 UNIVERSAL PRINCE Bede Murray 12 56
3 SANDMASON (GB) Tony McEvoy 17 55.5
4 HELENE VITALITY (NZ) David Hayes 14 54.5
5 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy 11 53.5
6 FREEMASON John Hawkes 4 53.5
7 MAGUIRE (NZ) Jon Collins 20 53.5
8 RAIN GAUGE George Hanlon 3 53.5
9 BEEKEEPER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 6 53
10 KAAPSTAD WAY (NZ) Chris Wood 8 53
11 MAGICAL MISS Bart Cummings 7 52.5
12 DASH FOR CASH Rick Hore-Lacy 15 52
13 PENTASTIC David Hall 13 52
14 PRIZED GEM (NZ) Murray Baker 21 52
15 REPUBLIC LASS Guy Walter 1 52
16 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 9 51.5
17 THE SECONDMORTGAGE (NZ) Michael Moroney 5 50
18 TULLY THUNDER Ross McDonald 2 50
19 HEY PRONTO (1st emg) Gai Waterhouse 16 52.5
20 HAIL (NZ) (2nd emg) Bruce Marsh 18 52.5
21 GREY SONG (3rd emg) Tommy Hughes 19 51

Prediction - if Northerly starts in the CC, he will not contest the Cox Plate.

Have taken the following first 4 in Cup -

Fields of Omagh
Universal Prince
Rain Gauge
Distinctly Secret

Good luck to all

Cheers
Cosmo

My prediction is that barring injury or ill health to Northerly, he will definitely back up in the Cox Plate.

The word is that while Fred Kersley has the utmost respect for Sunline and Lonhro he is very confident that running at his best Northerly has the slight edge. His biggest concern is Grandera and the difficulty in lining him up.

Of course Fred is probably biased however he can feel reasonably confident that all things being equal Northerly can just shade Sunline and that overall his fighting spirit and toughness would stand him on very good stead against the much less seasoned Lonhro, especially over 2000m.

Fred certainly isn't saying that Northerly has it in the bag. I understand it to be that he is confident that if Northerly is well, he will be right in the finish with Sunline, Lonhro, Grandera etc. and that being the case he would be mad not to start him and potentially chalk up 2 in a row. Maybe he is even thinking that if Northerly can do that, it sets the scene for his last ever preparation next spring to be another Cox Plate mission and the chance to write himself into the record books against the great Kingston Town.

Magical Miss. Should fly home with the 52.5kg.

I will add to that. If Northerly starts in the Caulfield Cup, in my opinion he CANNOT WIN the Cox Plate, and therefore may as well not start in the Cox Plate. It has to be one or the other. He has a great chance in EITHER race. But not in both. This is a crash hot Cox Plate with five absolutely genuine winning chances. I hope he runs in the CC, then there is one less champ chasing down Sunline in the Cox Plate! Go the Queen! I am still sticking to Rain Gauge in the CC, but have great respect for the toppie. The cream almost always rises to the top.

I'v taken a liking to the ladies "Magical Miss" and "Republican Lass".

"Northerly" has beaten most of these but I don't think he can he beat the handicapper this time around.

"Beekeeper" is interesting and cannot be left out of calculations.

Magical Miss/Republican Lass/Beekeeper