ok lets see,
the fields of omagh were facing northerly but the magical miss could not get to the raingauge in time.could it be that the beekeeper has moved the post.
cryptic top 5
may all who wager reap the rewards!

Distinctly Secret
Tully Thunder
Freemason

These ones I reckon represent great value at current market odds:

DASH FOR CASH *** Shapes like he'll go the distance and beautifully weighted.

HELENE VITALITY ** Should be peaking perfectly for the CC. Trained to the minute.

UNIVERSAL PRINCE * Classy problem horse who, at best, would win. Distance suits and worth a ticket at outsider's odds.


On balance, these ones I reckon represent very poor value at current market odds:

NORTHERLY Champion but simply not suited under the handicap conditions and doubtful of running the trip.

PENTASTIC Fair lead-up form but grossly over-rated by the public. Not up to this.


A wildcard? If HEY PRONTO was to get a run, I'd rate him a genuine natural odds chance.

I'm interested in why a number of people believe that Northerly won't run the distance?

The truth is we really don't know do we? I learnt a rule a long time ago that I have always stuck by when it comes to distance....."the trainer knows the horse better than we do, so in the absence of contrary evidence, we are better off to accept the trainers judgement than make an assumption that a horse won't run a given distance....if we don't we are simply guessing".

This is especially true when referring to top class horses like Northerly.

Fred Kersley wouldn't be starting him...with 58kg....with the chance of flattening him for the Cox plate...if he didn't believe Northerly would run the trip.

My analysis from this time last year made me very excited to see Northerly race over 2400m. His running style made me believe that at his best he would be almost unbeatable over the distance. He has the ability to maintain very high speed for extended distances, especially in the run to the line. In the Cox plate last year, he was the only horse travelling faster in the last 200m of the race than he did during the first section, all the others were going slower.

This ability to maintain high speed in the run to the line while most horses tire at an increasing rate is basically what makes him look like a 'fighting tiger' A horse might head him briefly, but Northerly keeps going at a similar pace, the others tire in the last 100m and it gives the impression he fights back. When he fights back he isn't actually picking up speed, he's losing speed at a small rate, but the others are losing it at a much greater rate.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Northerly can't run the distance so based on my rule and analysis of his running style, i'm going to adopt the view that he can run the trip. We could even argue that Northerly is much more dour this preparation, more of a grinding type...if anything that makes him more likely to run the distance.

If there is all this talk about Northerly running the trip, what about Dash for Cash? Northerly has won numerous times over 2000m, Dash for Cash is yet to...he is more a sprinter miler. But the same point holds, there is no evidence that he can't run the trip and Rick Hore Lacy wouldn't be starting him if he had major doubts, so we have to assume that he will run it out.

Of course we will find out Saturday

While I agree with your thoughts osulldj - I sort of have an opposing theory on the distance subject.

If a horse has not proved itself in the going, over the distance, or at the weight it may be under the true odds of winining.

Trainers are often pressured into running horses in big races by connections who want to see their horse in a Caulfied or Melbourne Cup etc.

When there are doubts - the trainer usually suggests to the jockey about prizemoney available up to 5th place of $95,000 - worthwhile.

I would stick to horses who are proven at the weights, distance etc.

That's not to say Northerly or others can't do it, I'd just rather have my money on something at value that's proven to be up to it in the past.

Looking at Northerly's breeding – tons of staying blood on his sire's side.

By Serheed, sired Beau Heed (2400m winner WA Cox Stakes), Heed the Toll (Perth Cup), Kim Angel (WA Derby). Serheed's sire NijinskyII sired Lammtarra (UK Epsom Derby, French Arc de Triomphe) and before that Ferdinand (USA Kentucky Derby).

The real question - how fast can Northerly run the 2400m on the day carrying 58kg, as apposed to some others.

BREAKING NEWS!

Magical Miss, a one-time favorite for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups broke down at trackwork today and will miss the remainder of her spring engagements.
The mare has already been officially scratched from Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
Original first emergency Hey Pronto has also been scratched which means New Zealander Hail will make the field and Grey Song is now first emergency.
Meanwhile, smart but unlucky three-year-old Bel Esprit is still in the Cox Plate mix after some of his connections decided to over-rule an earlier decision to spell him.
However, while trainer John Symons is pressing on with plans to start him in the $3 million race, he will not make a final decision until the colt gallops next Tuesday.

My early picked dropped out long ago.

Warming to Pentastic (13), Freemason (6) & Prized Gem (14)

the miss has gone amiss.
that brings in that new zealand smokey hail.
well was that first up run in the cranbourne a warm up?
its in my stable.
we spend we hope we win!

I agree with your statement EI that any variable which is an unknown must be considered a risk and assessed in light of the horses other form factors and of course its price before deciding whether to support with your hard earned.

Certainly if a horse is an unknown at the distance and is at poor odds given that and other factors you would be mad to support him (or her).

However every man and his dog identifies and supports those that are proven at the distance, weight, class etc. etc. It's hard to find value horses amongst those that have the full list of positives in their form. When a horse has so many positives everyone knows it and supports it accordingly. The result is poor betting value.

I firmly believe that to win we have to go beyond the search for the so called "sure thing" or horse that has ticks against every form factor and be prepared to conduct calculated risk assessment on perceived negative form factors, the odds the horse is in the market, and whether its worth taking the gamble that if the perceived factor isn't negative, you have a massive overlay winner.

It's not until you can start taking calculated risks on horses that have the odd negative form factor that you really start getting amongst the big value chances. Note this doesn't necessarily mean the horse is a long shot.

In essence I believe the best road to success is to wait for the right opportunity and pick your spots to take a calculated risk by adopting a view different to the public.

One way I do this relates to the points I made about distance. If the market seems to have its mind made up a horse can't run the distance, its price will often get out beyond what it would otherwise be. If there is no evidence to say the horse can't run the distance, and the price is good enough, i'm willing to take the chance. I usually confine this to good quality horses.

Of course you're not right all the time. Sometimes the horse can't run the distance, but on other times it does and I clean up.

The key point is that we need to differentiate between cases where there is hard evidence to support a judgement about a horse and those occassions where it is simply a guess or even an educated "guess". Whenever judgements are made on the basis of some form of guessing, and then those judgements are reflected in the betting market, I view that as an opportunity to adopt a contrarian view and win big when i'm right.