Haven't a clue but it would have cut out a lot of silly bets today and just returned a profit. Only 1 place getter at 4.80 [just under 9/1 SP] from 6 bets.

Who is "robbo"?

Over the years I have noticed that around 70% of winners come from the top 5 raters.

Does anyone know where we can get a list of these ratings on the internet for every race?

Since 70% is quite high, we should work from that.

For online ratings.
Try the Neurals using ones favorite setting or factory setting or the 5 in pre-post market as shown on the same Neural site.

Also try Winnerinsix for their top 5 ratings.


Stats show the top 5 in a pre-post market has a higher SR than most ratings services out there.
Pre-post Approx 79%
Rating services approx 74%
I dont know why that should be.
Tested over 5 years of data.

SR is greater again if used on races with 12 runners & less.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

so we know that 30% of the pre-post favs win and show a level stakes loss,
therefore if we concentrate on 2nd to 5th fav (pre-post) we are on the winner 49% of the time,........... food for thought isn't it? especially at the track taking the BEST odds on offer for each of the 4

What is the reliability of pre post markets? who puts their name to the odds posted so early?

Put it this way the odds are shown in the paper aren't put up by a bookie who when lists these odds wont have the worry about the phone answering with a punter wanting to take the odds on offer. Its really a market based upon, what is most likely 1 or 2 peoples opinions.
Wouldnt there be more confidence in taking note of live flucs or opening price straight from the ring where the persons posting are legit.
Money speaks all languages and the difference between a newspaper editor slash market supplier is no where near what a large gathering of bookies and pro punter are willing to do with the market?
i often find the newspaper listed odds midweek anyway are way off what you find 5min before the race. Saturday odds supplied by tab fixed price are as close as you'll ever get.....and even then.........

G'Day Kingo, yes you have a point, but this presumption is based entirely on the ACTUAL results of pre-post favs, I've done extensive research (over the years) and as Bags confirms it actually OUT-PERFORMS most so-called "professional" ratings, though it should be explained that some pre-post markets are produced by computer ratings. I don't think it matters much which source of pre-post markets you use as long as you use the same source all the time. "NEVER SWAP & CHANGE"

From my research NONE of the pre-post indications produces a profit on their own, i.e 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th pre-post favs, but when added to the BEST odds available for each the S/R is incredible and with careful staking you are right there amongst it!

I think your on the right track Party. Quite few times here I've advocated that through form study, narrow down the winning chances to bet on to 2 or 3 and then bet the horse with the best odds available.
If we back our main choice only, we will often get it wrong. So why not back the best priced runner of our 2 or 3 winning chances? It will win just as often as our own choice for sure!

Likewise with pre-post runners, if a punter backed the best priced horse [or best two] from say the first 4 or 5 pre-post horses, a similar result as above would apply. The result of course is we are getting value as often as possible.

Another and even simpler method to achieve value betting, would be to follow your favorite tipster and back whichever of their 3 tips has the best bet value. It will win just as often as the other 2 will but your getting the best price every time. You might even turn a nice little profit!

Hi King,
You sound cheesed off & suprised that there is a difference to the actual race day market. Why?
Just as there is a huge difference between the actual TAB market & Betfair .
Just look at the TAB Fav at 2 min till jump & compare to say Betfair , it is very common to see a 300% in price e.g. $2.90 TAB , $8.90 Betfair.

The pre-post was never designed to be a fixed price service.
But it can be if you enter the paper price that you want onto Betfair & see if it gets taken up with enough time till jump.


Yesterday for instance most of the TAB $2.80-3.80 horses could easily get
1-6 points more 2 min till jump.

I saw one that was $1.60 on the TAB & where $4.00 could be had on Betfair.

Most punters know that the pre-post market is just a numerical indication of chance , set to price between runners used a as point of reference between runners, when doing the form.
e.g. Two horses for possible consideration maybe $2.00 & the other $100
Which one of the 2 horses does one think has the strongest chance of getting up?

One can use it like a ratings service & bet the overs & delete the unders.



The pre-post market is usually set around the 160% mark , this is usually done to try & offset any possible scratchings.
As opposed to the TAB at 118.5% which includes rounding down, & approx 105% on betfair before 5% commission which can be deducted off the price.

The idea of using the pre-post market is looking at its position within that market & the top 5 within that market stats show a high percentage SR.

One could use the price in the pre-post market & bet all the horses in the top 5 or 6 that are paying more or less as indicated in the live market.

One will see that it is not uncommon to see a horse rated 5th in what ever pre-post market showing say $8.00 that ends up winning at $28.00

One thing that is interesting is that the live market Top 5 is around 79-80% as compared to the pre-post market of 78%.

Not bad for bloke who did the market sitting around in the kitchen in his underware , scratching himself...

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan,

Perfect example of what you are saying about the pre-post market was Montechoro winning at at Flemington last Saturday. Saturday's Herald-Sun listed it at $8.50 (equal 3rd favourite) paying $21.20 SuperTab.

Regards

Try Try Again