Here are the jockey S/R that are listed as racing in R1 at Ararat tomorrow:

ARARAT (VR)
R1,
MS K L DYSON 10.8
N WILSON 8.5
B RAWILLER 18.3
MS K WALTERS 8.7
J KEATING NO STATS
S BASTER 7.4
M PAYNE 10.6
S MURPHY 11.8
D MOOR 7.8
B AVDULLA 5.6
G MURPHY 6.7

Our top 3 picks would be:
1-B AVDULLA
2-G MURPHY
3-S BASTER

I have heard at least S BASTER win while listening to the races, so will still put in a condition that the jockey not be riding on a horse that is in the top 4 sp odds. This will have to be in a field of at least 8 runners.

I'm going to test this on the results for terang today and see how many times I have to pay out.

Ok, for Terang, if you layed the horse with the jockey with the lowest strike rate recorded you would have had 100% success with your lays.

Top 5 worst jockey's in Vic (at least 100 rides):
(lowest to highest strike rate)
F ALESCI 3.9 (1 winner every 25.9 rides)
A MALLYON 4.2 (1 winner every 23.8 rides)
M CARSON 4.3 (1 winner every 23 rides)
MS C PULS 4.5 (1 winner every 22.3 rides)
R BOOTH 4.7 (1 winner every 21.1 rides)

Pengo, who's the "better" rider?

Rider A: 1000 rides, 100 winners, $10 average SP all rides
Rider B: 1000 rides, 100 winners, $20 average SP all rides

Using a rider's strike rate in isolation from their chance of winning on a mount could lead you astray. Your idea has leg's though I think.

PS: Fabian Alesci won on Bombay Express at Terang didn't he? I'd double check the accuracy of those strike rate figures too if I were you.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Yes, the strike rate needs enquiry I reckon.

One jockey may have been stuck on 25/1 shots lately and travelled to the track for one ride on a favourite.

Other jockeys may have been riding favourites and now are riding donkeys.

Lay the horse that won last start and beat the second horse which had the longest odds last start.
Back the horse which beat the horse with the shortest odds last start

__________________
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Good on ya Pengo, rightly or wrongly, you are at least trying to having a go, which is more than I can say for those who enjoy the past time of trying to demean people in front of others, just to be mean, with zero positive input to take its place.
Any one can throw hand grenades from a distance & offer nothing in its place.
It's this type of behaviour that has driven people from making some postings to none.

Back to business.
Heres a method that has good SR.

.Target the 1st & 2nd Betfair Favs
.Target Jockeys with a 15% & worse SR at that track.
.Target Trainers with a 15% & worse SR at that track.

The selection must have a trainer & jockey with the above stats.

One will find a lot that fall over a lot.
Bet 1% of bank if priced $1-3.50
Bet .6% of bank if priced $3.55-7.40

No bet if selection is $7.50+

Cheers.

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Cheers.

Geez im glad i supplied Pengo with a strike rate chart for him to have a look at & explained the crux of his system had no meaning in regards to percentages even being irrellavent. Lets call an apple an apple here Bags in regards to the garbage that continues to be posted by Pengo << names scan be used.
he then posts " thanks fo stating the obvious " If Pengo knew the obvious then this 'system' would never had been posted nor the last 6 in a week
Taking in other peoples knowledge from day 1 when its obvious you have little idea >> i supoort 100% and if you go back on threads i spent one of my betting Saturdays nicely helping Pengo understand Betfair.
I then stood back and have watched others in here i consider genuine profit makers go to countless ends to help Pengo, and in return << hand over ears and the continue of uneducational threads flowing freely without any consideratin in taking in anything on offer.
The reason why pepole dont post is because they cant get into SEINFELD threads about nothing.
You put up solid threads that makes people think about genuine punting questions and the community will come. Yo get someone who doesnt understand the basics, wont listen and posts every 2nd thread in here then expect new googlers who come across this site to keep googling.


I will bet on #1 in every race aslong as its not the 1,2,3, fav << this system had more credit all beit the same thing!

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

Don't know how to answer that Angry since the odds I am lead to believe is based on how good both the rider and horse is. I'll be looking at a horses form as well, the jockey just lets you narrow down the choices.

F Alesci did win, have to re-check why I didn't select his horse. Ok, its the 2nd fav so it wouldn't have been selected.



Ok, thanks for the suggestion.



You are entittled to your opinion and my threads maybe crap, but I'm workshopping and would think that is appreciated for people wondering what works and what doesn't.

I'm not sorry for questioning people's advice and not taking it for face value. I may or may not consider it, don't take offense if someone doesn't take your advice as gospel and instead wants to work it out for them self. Plus what fun is it, in getting everything done for you? I may come up with bad systems, but at least I am trying to come up with a simple system and I don't hide the fact I have no idea.

Rather than say, nup won't work. I know best (thats how your posts come across). How about suggest something to make the system work and improve it?

The link to nsw jockey's is appreciated, also stating the obvious remark was in relation to how I'm trying to find a weak link. Thats kinda the whole point, find the weak link on the horse and exploit it to your advantage.

At the end of the day I prefer to "see it to believe it", although if someone says X doesn't work but if you make a slight change here to "XYZ" you can have more success would be something I'd take under consideration.

I don't think Pengo is trying to re-invent the wheel here. All he's doing is trying to get less punctures. ( Read EGO's ) Why some people have to be so ************ negative all the time astounds me. Good luck Pengo.

Thanks for the kind words Beagle.



It will be something to think about but adding trainers into the mix means more work! I'm trying for the simplest way with the least amount of time invested. Doesn't have to be perfect just profitable.

Still I'll look into it as once I got a table of stats, just like with the jockey's it'll soon be known who the regular bad trainer's are. Also I don't like laying favs as they do win !

Your suggestion is definitely something I will consider, as I don't really want to lay horses at long odds. As I am worried about that 100-1 shot coming in, and don't expect my system to be perfect! So using what you have suggested means I can try and minimise losses as I can lay horses at more reasonable odds. Also I want to be able to lay every race, so you can make that much more!

Yes your right although I'd give more credit to the trainer influencing the odds than the jockey. The jockey can win or lose it for you once the race has started, but the trainer can win or lose it before the horse even gets to the track. It's really about putting the right horse in the right race. A colleague of mine has a share of a smart 3yo filly that stormed home to win by 5 or 6 lengths at Flemington on Cup Day. That filly was nominated for two or three races before finding the right one. You could probably have put any of a dozen riders on her for the same result. When you see a late riding change you generally don't see a corresponding change in the odds.

My question was largely rhetorical but all things being equal I'd put my money on the rider who has shown the advantage (Rider B) over the one who's only met expectation (Rider A).

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash