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#21
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Shmucta.
How do you know which race is the one to post your tip on? Like for SANDOWN last night, how long did you spend doing the Form? How much time did you spend studying Race 1? How much time did you spend studying Race 6 where you found a selection? How much time did you spend studying Race 8, the Lizrene Staying Classic..GROUP 1? |
#22
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It varies from race to race, Turanza Bale was a standout to me, Was down in class I thought, and Sandown allows a dog a great run if they need room, as there is not as much interference, usually, at the first turn, and thats the way it panned out. It was a huge run the week before, and the time that night was sensational, a quick look through the others in the fireld and I could not see it being beaten, with an ounce of luck as usual, which you can never bank on.
I scan the fields, and usually the good runs over the proceeding few weeks will stand out to me, and I can make an educated guess on if I want to delve further into that races form, based on the runners. I pass a few races pretty quickly as they have a few winning chances and it all comes down to luck, such as the distance final last night. Interestingly I had Lady Moscato almost leading that race and proving hard to beat, but I thought it was too much of a gamble. I think on her run if she lead then she would have been hard to beat, as she was back near last and made up a stack of ground, good run, but I am glad I didnt bet. If you watch as many races as I do, the good dogs will stick in your mind, then the process is to work out what will happen in tonights race, if I like what I see, then it becomes a selection. Like I have said before, after all that is done, you still need value, so I do not bet every selection, but most of them I find are value, I would say 10 to 15 percent start unders. But betfair is a great addition to my punting options I must say
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good luck and happy punting |
#23
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You make no mention in your tips as to what is considered VALUE.
How do you work that out? Like, What Price did you figure TURANZA BALE was about the right Price? And what would be the Lowest Price that you would accept on it? I saw $3.90 on BETFAIR but I was too busy doing something and missed it. |
#24
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Value I base on how confident I am, and I have a price in mind when I select a dog, but it is really just a guide. If I am not comfortable with a price I wont take it.
Turanza Bale, based on the run the week before, I thought would be odds on. So any black figures was value to me. I got set at $3.20 on betfair, plus I also saved on UNITab because sometimes you cannot get on elsewhere, so the $2.80 was also value for me. That is all down to my confidence though, I really couldn't see anything in the field giving much trouble to Turanze Bale. Rowdy ran well, but it is a few lengths off Turanza Bale ability wise. I would not have been as confident had the race been at say Wentworth Park, as the first turn there is a killer, but like i said, Sandown is a very fair track, and the race panned out how I thought. Does not always happen though, as you can see by my posted tips lol
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good luck and happy punting |
#25
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The Meadows Race 2 Mepunga Diva
The Meadows Race 6 Wait On Cooper The Meadows Race 7 Blachura Bale The Meadows Race 8 Trew Millions The Meadows Race 9 Monster Prince The Meadows Race 10 Dids Wentworth Park Race 6 Radio Star Wentworth Park Race 8 Others Quoted Cannington Race 1 Lucky Louey Cannington Race 7 Russle Up
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good luck and happy punting |
#26
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I think you may be tipping just for the sake of tipping now Shmucta
Usually you come up with 2, maybe 3 selections per meeting. Looks like about 6 at The Meadows tonight. Good Luck with it anyway. Don't think I'll be betting too much in the Races you have selected. But I'll cheer yours home for you anyway |
#27
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Never ever ever just tip for the sake of it Moeee
I can't choose where the good runs start next mate lol, so I go with what I am dealt with. And The Meadows is a very very different form track than Sandown. It is a leaders track, so dogs that run good time over the shortcourse one turn tracks usually can sustain that speed for the 525m. Different altogether at Sandown, with it being a much fairer track, with dogs seeming to win from anywhere on the first turn. As to why The Meadows seems an easier 525 than the shorter Sandown 515m and I could not answer that.
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good luck and happy punting |
#28
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Traralgon Race 5 Salegreys Gold -
Traralgon Race 7 Spence's Shadow 2nd Gardens Race 6 Irinka Samuel - Gardens Race 7 Emo Appeal 3rd Richmond Race 2 Brislane - Richmond Race 5 Midnight Movie 2nd Richmond Race 6 Yorklea Tiger 1st $1.60 Richmond Race 7 No Way Aaron - Richmond Race 8 Smart Betsy 1st $1.70 Geelong Race 8 Taipan Bale 1st $1.70 Geelong Race 10 Thanks To You -
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good luck and happy punting |
#29
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The Meadows Race 2 Mepunga Diva 3rd
The Meadows Race 6 Wait On Cooper 3rd The Meadows Race 7 Blachura Bale 3rd The Meadows Race 8 Trew Millions - The Meadows Race 9 Monster Prince - The Meadows Race 10 Dids 2nd Wentworth Park Race 6 Radio Star 2nd Wentworth Park Race 8 Others Quoted 1st $1.60 Cannington Race 1 Lucky Louey 3rd Cannington Race 7 Russle Up 2nd Bet $89.00 Return $70.80 LOT %20.44
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good luck and happy punting |
#30
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Your just like me shmucta
Started off in a blaze of glory then turned to aaaa |
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