Good thought schmucta - I haven't got any real stats, but on that small sample from todays races it would have only eliminated 1 unplaced horse.

cheers

Hi Mancunian,..what rules are you using for B,...surely there must be more than that single rule.?

And Schmucta, interesting point there, I'll have a look at it tomorrow. Been sitting here going through coffs harbour form for tomorrow's Cup meeting, I'm heading up there. It's a 40k run from here. It's a good meeting up there, will be packed, as always.

Paul

G'day Paul,
1st rule is "must have had its last start less than 8 days ago"
then I was just trying to see if there was a simple filter to find if some were better than others - and now shmucta has introduced another filter, and of course Chrome's suggestion is fine if you are equipped accordingly.
But us peasants are always looking and hoping for something simple.
Hope you back a winner or two tomorrow.
cheers....Mancunian

I have been interested in the last start winners from the previous 8 days for a little while but never had a database to use to see how it would go

Horses that are 2nd up generally need minimum 2 weeks and preferrably 3 weeks after a first run back in, so would like to see how that affects the stats, and also i have been thinking about distances as well, but havent been able to pinpoint an optimum distance range. You would have to think a 1000m - 1600m race would be easier to recover from in 8 days than say a 2000m - 2400m race, but with horses you never know and thats why the stats could tell us something.

Ihave more thoughts if interested

__________________
good luck and happy punting

And of course they don't even have to be last start winners. Some horses improve with a run so close to their last outing

__________________
good luck and happy punting

My data base is not uptodate is about 2 years old but still should have good info so i will start with basic results
<8 Days Break
Sel 28338
Wins 3048
SR 10.76%
Return 24752.8
P.O.T -12.65%

The average divi for these winner was $8.12 with the min $1.10 and max $181.50 and as we all know money is a great indication of chance so lets bring in a min price we will start with the ave

<8 Days Break
<$8
Sel 9355
Wins 2156
SR 23.05%
Return 9073.19
P.O.T -3.01%

This improved things a bit so where to from here, lets have a look at close up runners lets say with in 3 lngths.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<3
Sel 6775
Wins 1624
SR 23.97%
Return 6462.10
P.O.T -4.62%

This reduced everything overall but increased our loss, lets try 2 lengths.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<2
Sel 5486
Wins 1374
SR 25.05%
Return 5297.60
P.O.T -3.43%

Not a big change lets go lower.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<1
Sel 3780
Wins 1008
SR 26.67%
Return 3744
P.O.T -0.95%

Lets say ran 1st or 2nd

<8 Days Break
<$8
1...2
Sel 4053
Wins 1072
SR 26.45%
Return 3997.90
P.O.T -1.36%

Not a great deaL has changed maybe last start winners.

<8 Days Break
<$8
1
Sel 2074
Wins 597
SR 28.78%
Return 2145
P.O.T 3.43%

Ok here we have a profit over 7 years of data maybe small but yet a profit, see the amount of selections has reduced by over half but the winners have also reduced, so we see that last start winners can make a profit with the above rules, lets see if we can improve this.


we will reduce the price to less that $6
<8 Days Break
<$6
1
Sel 1648
Wins 536
SR 32.52%
Return 1730.20
P.O.T 4.93%

An by going to $5 max

<8 Days Break
<$5
1
Sel 1325
Wins 473
SR 35.70%
Return 1392
P.O.T 5.07%

How about $4

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
Sel 986
Wins 396
SR 40.16%
Return 1054.50
P.O.T 6.95%

This tells me price has a big difference on returns as you can see but with just over 100 selections a year i am sure many punters would become bored, lets increase the days to 14

<15 Days Break
<$4
1
Sel 6226
Wins 2167
SR 34.81%
Return 5642.70
P.O.T -9.37%

Good strike rate but that about it, i had a look at a few other days but less than 7 looked the best, i had a look at runners from a spell but it reduced the runners,winners and overall profit.

Here i added only 4yo and up

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
4yo+
Sel 643
Wins 259
SR 40.28%
Return 704.80
P.O.T 9.61%

Interesting to note this also made a profit for the place
<8 Days Break
<$4
1
4yo+
Sel 643
Wins 443
SR 68.90%
Return 646.50
P.O.T 0.54%

Lets just have 3yo-7yo

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
3...7
Sel 860
Wins 352
SR 40.93%
Return 939.20
P.O.T 9.21%

All these figures are based on TAB prices

P.S.
I thought i would make this change to the above and change from last start winners to those less than 1 length

<8 Days Break
<$4
<1
3...6
Sel 1475
Wins 588
SR 39.86%
Return 1611.30
P.O.T 9.24%

One thing this shows is age does effect runners

lots of great work there Shaun, lots of different strategies.

Can you differentiate between distances?

Maybe win percentages as well? I don't know much about databases and how far the limitations are.

__________________
good luck and happy punting

Sure give me an idea of what you want

okay, thanks heaps, I won't go into the hundreds of ideas I have but this should make a start

Last start 8 days or less
win percentage 20+
distances 1800m or less

also could u get comparative results for distances 1800 or more?

maybe add a filter of within 3 lengths last start, like I said I aint too sure how the databases work, but your stats and findings provide excellent reading

__________________
good luck and happy punting

<8
>20%
<1800
Sel 4103
Wins 759
SR 18.50%
Return 4083.20
P.O.T -0.48%

I tried with more than 1800 but a bigger loss and even with a price of less than $5 for the obove stats was still a loss
If we do this to what you have above
<8
>20%
<1
<1800
Sel 2419
Wins 517
SR 21.37%
Return 2477
P.O.T 2.40%

The best things to start off with IMHO are less than 8 days and less than a length from winner then you need to add a price filter then maybe an age filter