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  #11  
Old 18th November 2010, 08:00 AM
Stix Stix is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
I reckon you could do a lot worse than targeting horses to run a place in fields of 8-10 runners & go from there.
Interesting Bhags, that links in with my place betting approach too..... (tick!)

Thanks, for your thoughts...must of known I was looking for an answer to my place betting questions
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  #12  
Old 18th November 2010, 10:42 AM
Michal Michal is offline
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Hi iPunter,

Dont chase TAB's , you will never catch them ! Look for best tote and other products like that from corporates. Try betfair, there you have a choise of many like vic tab, some kind of best tote product and ofcourse their exchange prices. The reason the TAB are a bad idea is that the prices can change, and they do change. Everyone has access to all 3 totes and what is everyone else going to do ? Put their money on the highest paying tote at the time that they punt. Just like you ! Watchingh it , I can usually determine which is the lowest TAB by watching for the best price ! Often there is a large discrepancy between NSW and VIC as the corporates lay of bets and so on one of these can often finish paying $1.04 while the other pays $1.3 ....... happens all the time.

Save your self the hustle and bet best tote especially while your bets are small

Michal
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  #13  
Old 18th November 2010, 12:07 PM
Bundy Bundy is offline
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G'Day iPunter

Just a tip from an old time GTX user.

Here is what I do to find a plan and to keep it "current".

First of all find a plan that you are happy with that has shown good consistent results that does not rely on longshots to keep it in front over the last 12 months.

Okay, lets say for example that you trialed it from 14th November 2009 to 14th November 2010. Now, run the plan for the period 14th November 2009 to 14th May 2010, write down those results (strike rate, pot, etc etc) now for that period go back through every parameter that you have used, unclick each one, one at a time, and rerun the plan, check if there are any subtle changes you could implement for each parameter and if so change it accordingly eg you may have had the Jockey Penalty set to include 0.00 to 3, you may find for that 6 month period that you could have included 0.00 to 4.0...you with me here?

Now, once you have done that for each parameter run the plan for the period 14th December to 14th June and do the same checking as above...what you are doing, in effect, is keeping the plan "current" for the past 6 months of racing, something I believe is crucial to any plan.

I, in fact, actually do it on the past 3 months of racing but 6 months is good.

So what I will do for the 'City to Bush" plan that you will see posted on another thread of that name is run it from 14th August to 14th November and any changes made there will be the new "current" plan...I will check it on the 14th of every month.

Doing the above ensures that the basic plan stays to the pattern of racing that we are currently experiencing and will assist in keeping your plan in tune with those patterns.

Give it a shot...
Cheers
Bundy
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  #14  
Old 18th November 2010, 07:30 PM
iPunter iPunter is offline
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Bundy

Thanks for that mate its invaluable for a novice like me.

So am I correct in assuming that you would save each set of subtle changes as different plans & then implement them according to what time of year it is?

IE - If you found that Jan to June there was an increase in the strike rate from say the 4th barrier (Assuming you had the initial one set at 1st to 3rd barrier only, but during the second half of the year the results indicate barrier 4 was a no go in terms of good results, then you would save a rule which included barrier 4 but only ran that set of rules during the first half of the year & then in the second half of the year you ran another set of rules which excluded barrier 4?

Maybe I'm being to broad here but I'm just trying to get the gist of what you're saying correct!

Expanding on that, possibly then you may find rules that only work at certain tracks or states, you could then modify each one according to its better results for each parameter it is better suited to?

I think GTX is pretty good, I haven't seen any of the super expensive programs that do similar things, but from what I've seen so far it looks to provide enough information to be able to assist in educating me through narrowing down winners versus losers & then I guess its down to plain old hard yakka sorting through the results individually to try & help me understand why some horses win in certain situations & others don't. To me that would be a brilliant result even if I never actually get a system directly from GTX that consistantly produces if it teaches me about horse racing then its a winner for me.

Thanks for all the replys, the information here may be basic knowledge but its fantastic to be able to ask what others think that know more than I do about racing & systems. I live under a rock in terms of exposure to the jargon & if most of my friends knew I invested the time I do & lay down some cash on a regular basis they would think I were twisted & needed help. I always invest within my means but to the average Joe outside racing circles I think its looked apon as "Gambling" no matter how you approach it.

Nice to be in company with like minds in here.

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  #15  
Old 19th November 2010, 02:20 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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It wasnt that long ago that banks would sprook for clients to take out loans to bet on the stock market.

They wouldnt let you do it for Horse racing, because they thought that was gambling , but not the stock market, because thats investing.

You notice they dont call it that, now .

We could have told them that for nought.

If using multiple selection plans on the GTX , I would bet 1/200th or 1/250th of bank adjusted up & down daily, because one will experience runs of 20+ outs , this is normal.

Try & acheive a SR of approx 23-25% on any of the plans , if not , drop it.
The lower the SR the greater the expected run of outs.

Another very powerful rule to use on most of your systems that you are going to create is this...
Using the pre-post market built into GTX , have it set where the selection has to be $3.25+ in its pre-post market.
This single rule cuts out a lot of dead wood where runners have high SRs but no profit to be had.

One thing I found facinating using GTX, was that horses that ran or won at the track or distance , made very little difference to the figures when competing against those that did not have the same experience.
It gave the impression that an Urban myth had been revieled.

Another was Resuming horses with a proven track record of doing well usualy performed poorly on the day if they had been successfull 2+ times before.
the horse that were successfull 0-1 performed stronger... go figure.

With the importance of value to be secured , rather that dealing with the TABs for the reasons already mentioned, I have found BetEzy to be very good, where bets as as low as .10 cents can be made & they offer best of 3 TABs on most events.
This saves you the hassel of having 3 TAB accounts, even if you had 3 accounts , one would stand no chance of securing the best price because of the constant price changes, even when the race is in running , because of the 90 sec loop of time.
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  #16  
Old 19th November 2010, 04:46 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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iPunter,


Re the barrier draw example you have given, to me that would be back fitting. Unless you had huge samples which showed a definite drop or rise in strike rate on the change of months (even then its something I woudl not use), I would not bother with that, you are just asking for long term failure. The biggest thing is make your rules logical, saying bet barrier 4 in Jan, March, July and October becasue previous data shows it to be good, is not going to work long term, its more down to every punters 'favourite' word.... VARIANCE.
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  #17  
Old 20th November 2010, 04:05 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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When I was talking about batches of 150 , I used it in batches of 150 races which the program can sort for you.

Heres a GTX plan I invented with my own brain that made solid profits nearly every month.
Its rules a qwerky to say the least , but it pulls many big payers, 7 days a week.

RULES
Target races with 10 runners exactly.
Price 3.25-25.00 in pre-post market as shown in GTX
Delete resumers.
Must not been placed in any of its last 3 starts.
Include first starters.
Bet all selections.

There will be approx 3-5 selections per race.
Bet same amount on all of them.

One thing that I found strange, over the 4.5 years of data, the plan failed to show a profit in race No. 7 on any meeting, betting 7 days a week over hundreds of selections...weird.
All the other race numbers showed a profit over the same period.
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  #18  
Old 21st November 2010, 10:51 AM
iPunter iPunter is offline
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Folks thats all brilliant info & I thank you for passing it on. I am currently on a very steep learning curve so you'll have to excuse me if I sound a little vague on some responces, its just that I'm studying the ideas as I read them & for me that takes time

One question which has been plaguing me & I have been a little sheepish to ask as it will reveal just how green I am here, but I can't avoid it any longer.

Race class? Whats the story with the class numbers? I'm having trouble determining if a horse raced in say a RB75 last race, and its now running in an RB62 has it gone up in class or down? I've searched everywhere trying to find a clue as to how the system works but I can't for the life of me find anything that points out what is more than likely very obvious.

If someone can point me in the direction of race class explainations I'd be eternally grateful & more than willing to offer the majestic reward of one whole packet of fruit tingles for the info.

Cheers
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  #19  
Old 21st November 2010, 12:03 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Hi ipunter,

The higher the benchmark number, in theory, the better the quality of the runners.

So in your example RB75 is better class than RB62. A horse going from an RB75 to an RB62 will generally carry more weight than their last start as they are going down in class.

It is more complicated than this as they took a while to refine the system but for some scintillating late night reading, check out the Racing NSW explanation of the benchmark system:

Benchmark System

My general advice for starting out:

- Keep your money in your pocket until you have a good grasp of weights, times, class etc.
- Stick to one States racing. Get to know the horses running there and their patterns of racing. Do they perform first-up, need a few runs, prefer certain tracks etc. That goes for trainers and jockeys also.
- Start making prices for your horses or find a service that does it accurately. Ask questions - why is a horse shorter or longer than I predicted. You need to feel confident going against the crowd. Other punters are your enemies (in the nicest possible way). ha ha
- The harder you work, the luckier you'll get
- Start a bank and stick to level stakes
- Always seek the best prices for your investments
- Alcohol and investing on horse racing don't mix.

Best of luck!

The Schmile
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  #20  
Old 21st November 2010, 04:39 PM
iPunter iPunter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSchmile
Hi ipunter,

Alcohol and investing on horse racing don't mix.

The Schmile

!!!!!!!

Awe bummer, that's just thrown my entire drunken pin the tail on the horsey system then! :P

Thanks for the link, I'll check it out. I am (And freely admit to it) gambling a little at the moment, you're advise on no investmenst till I have a grip on things is very solid advise, however for me I know I can trust myself with a few small wagers here & there (Proven systems with a little return for my pocket money) as I feel it keeps my interest for the long haul. Whilst "gambling" tiny amounts & seeing some winners & losers it gives me a bit of hands on experience without breaking my eventual investment bank. If you saw the amount of spread sheet formulas & various folders full of tests I've done in my short time I think you'd agree I don't fit the form of a total mug just yet.

In all honesty its been a very daunting task for me to learn the numbers involved as my math is pretty poor. I have been fortunate enough to have been forced (through work) to learn a few basic computer skills which are helping me to stay focused on the bottom line of all this effort. Whilst it may take me 28 attempts to create a simple excel formula at least I can do it & doing that means I do get a taste of how bad things could get if I let my head go on the investment side of things. Forcast calculations certainly can be heartbreaking when you watch something you thought was a good thing slowly degrade into a pile of horrible red numbers.

So I'll do my best to keep a level head & wear down this deficit of experience in the meantime. Cheers
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