I have tried the 1/4 approach and used it for some time until I discovered the following.
Based on a horse paying $5 win $2 place

Horse wins horse places
1 win = $5 return = 400% POT $0 100% loss
1 e/w = $7 = 350% $2 0%
1/2 = $9 200% $4 33%POT
1/3 = $11 175% $6 50%
1/4 = $13 160% $8 60%
1/5 = $15 150% $10 66%
5 plce= $10 100% $10 100%

Based on the above versus risk on outlay the only bets that provide a decent POT are the win bet or the place bet. Any e/w bet cuts into the POT too much with the exception of the $1 e/w which provides a get out should the horse place and doesn't erode the POT too much should it win. I prefer the dutch bet for the saver rather than a $e/w.

ANY ONE WITH A METHOD DESIGNED ON AN E/W BET IS ERODING THEIR POT.

I now play 3 methods.

1/ Place only. The bet is 1/4 of the bank at all times up to my limit. Method of selection is simple. As 70% of winners pay under $12 I wait til the market is up and select the runner I feel has the best credentials of those in the market. Runner must be paying $1.70 or more.

2/ Win only. The bet is 10% of the bank. Method of selection is again simple. Wait til the market is up, see who the favourate is and if I feel he has winning credentials bet him. Must pay $3 or more. Theory is that 40% of favourites win.

3/ Dutch betting. No more than 4 runners (preferably 3) Study required here to reduce the chances and I prefer to stick to certain regions on this one. One of the selections is the main bet with the others savers. Hard to use if a selection is at odds under $3.

Comments appreciated, I await to be shot down in flames.

Hullo, GeneralGym,

I read your post with interest and I might like to say that this is what this forum is all about, ie.good, friendly, robust discussion.
In respect of your betting and selection approach, I believe that it is a solid strategy and like all punting, the end result depends on the regularity and sequence of collects.
I might say that you, too, appear to operate in a systematic way and this certainly helps in the long run.
As far as the merits of win and place betting it is all subject to the variables of racing and the importance of receiving value when betting.

Hullo, GeneralGym,

I read your post with interest and I might like to say that this is what this forum is all about, ie.good, friendly, robust discussion.
In respect of your betting and selection approach, I believe that it is a solid strategy and like all punting, the end result depends on the regularity and sequence of collects.
I might say that you, too, appear to operate in a systematic way and this certainly helps in the long run.
As far as the merits of win and place betting it is all subject to the variables of racing and the importance of receiving value when betting.

G'day Merriguy,

Yesterday, there were only moderate betting opportunities available at Taree and Hamilton. However, Race 2 at Taree appeared to offer a potential good percentage return.
There were only four starters so I had a box trifecta(outlay 4x3x2 =24 units)- let's face it, I had to get the trifecta( I didn't bet the 1st four as I believed there was more opportunity in the trifecta to get value).
I suppose I gambled here that a longshot may get up and pay a decent div. and fortunately the outsider of the field did salute. This was a classic percentage bet as I invested 24units and it paid $44.60 in NSW, representing a POT of 85.83%, not bad at all.
Is the pattern of racing changing or are favs in small fields getting knocked over with alarming regularity. Ten or twenty years ago, favs had an incredible winning percentage in small fields but not now-but there I go again, thinking conspiracy theories. My research shows that it can be profitable to bet against the fav in small fields with a view to scoring a better paying trifecta or exacta(I stress, in certain races only). This does not contradict my previous post about betting for the place in small fields as I do not necessarily wager on favs in races I select.
While I have been punting OK for some time, everything does not always go to plan. A case in point was Race 8 at Murray Bridge on 27.1.03. Prophet's Dream had been racing respectfully in Class 5 races and here it dropped back to a maiden race. As the class factor is one of my most important selection criteria I believed this represented an excellent betting opportunity.
The horse travelled well, the jockey pulled him out in the straight for a clear run but he wasn't good enough and ran unplaced. I went in pretty hard on this one so it was a bit painful but I am researching what went wrong but that's racing I suppose.
The important thing is flexibility and I change my punting methods to suit the conditions on the day and what opportunities present themselves.
That's why I don't necessarily bet win/place every day - I bet in whatever method provides value, ie. exactas , trifectas, dutch book etc
By the way, thanks for that program, it should be very useful for the trial period.

Cheers.

Thanks again for the food for thought, Xanadu. Plenty to digest there!

The little "Dutching" programme does not run out in so far as there is a trial available. I must have used it for some seven or eight months before I decided to part with the $US20. Last of the big spenders --- that's me.

Xanadu

Perhaps the horse had a headache?

With reference to your comment that I bet in a "systematic way", this is correct up to a point.
I use a "system" to eliminate the worst chances and highlight the better chances and those selections that are left are thrown through a quick series of tests (by the brain not a computer) and either a bet made or the race wiped. I sat here yesterday for an hour analising race after race before I made my first bet of six for the day. (ended up 9%+ POT)
I feel that computer systems (or other systems/methods) should only be used to highlight the better chances and the human fact has to take over and make the final decision.

Hi Merriguy & GeneralGym,

Good to hear from you.
General, that 9% was very respectable and if you could maintain a 9% return even on $1 for about 20 years you would have a 7 figure amount. The point I make is that while some "gamblers" scoff at these supposedly minute returns we will survive and hopefully prosper. Others will come and go and not grasp the fact that the whole racing game utilises averages against the punter meaning that in the longterm most punters fall away. However, the astute punter(read: investor) is able to skim a reasonable return from his/her investments - an approach I apply to my stockmarket activities by the way).
You hear of people becoming millionaires only after they have been broke 2 or 3 times - it seems a bit drastic to me. Why didn't they apply a sound approach in the first place and grow gradually from profits. In respect of this, let me emphasise that the term: "unit" does not necessarily mean $1. My strategy is that after raising your betting bank by $500-$1000 you then increase the value of your basic unit by $0.50 or $1...
This is the strength of the percentage-based investment strategy - you are only betting within your means and from accumulated profits(hopefully).
Yesterday, I had a successful day and returned a reasonable profit. No, I can't give pre-race tips because, as I have outlined before, some opportunities don't present themselves until just prior to the race start time.
Today, Race 3 Kyneton, appeared to present an opportunity to invest. Yes, there were only 7 starters, meaning only two place divs.
I supported No. 3 Wal's Princess and it duly won, paying NSW $3.50win & 2.00 pl providing a very satisfying overlay(win $3.50 ie. 2.5w x1/3 pl = anticipated div of $0.83, rounded down to $0.80(ie. $1.80 place div), yet it paid $2.00 place in NSW, resulting in an overlay of .20/1.80 = 11%, you can't get that at the bank!
The whole racing game is a study in recurring averages and percentages so until the pattern of racing changes, there is still scope to "skim" a regular return from TAB turnover.
If it does change(refer to my previous comments about small fields), then we are well equipped to change our strategy to these factors, unlike the loss chasing system users.
Cheers.

I'm with you Xanadu even with regards to the sharemarket. I treat my shares as a long term investment and if they fire up early thats even better.
My place method is currently running at a 72% strike rate but I do spend hours waiting on the right race and dividend. Only one bet today for a place on City Express in the 5th at Gatton, managed to snare $3 for the place.
Place system is currently operating at 38% POT after 4 months. Don't know why I don't just bet this way but like every one else I like to have the thrill of snaring a winner.
You are right about the bank, I started small and have had to set a limit I am comfortable with so have skimmed a little off the top for the General's Ice Cream's!
Remember I put 25% of the bank up each bet and so far I've been lucky.
I think most punters lack one very essential element and that is PATIENCE. I prefer to wait for the bet to come to me, not try and force one. This comes from experiance of cursing myself for having a bet when I wasn't sure of my selection!
I would be a very rich man if I could have some of those bets back.

GeneralGym wrote...
"I think most punters lack one very essential element and that is PATIENCE. I prefer to wait for the bet to come to me, not try and force one. This comes from experiance of cursing myself for having a bet when I wasn't sure of my selection!
I would be a very rich man if I could have some of those bets back."

ah yes, how very , very important.

There is something that wants to drive us to have that bet that doesnt quite fit all the criteria isnt there.
But you are correct, if you are uncertain then dont place the bet. There is always the next bet and you have to be patient, especially if you are betting the place because it might take two or three successful bets to recover the one bad bet.

And I do agree that if I hadnt had all those iffy ones I would sure be a lot better off :smile:

Patience, thats the secret.

see ya
Every Topic

Gooday fellas,

Well, no matter how diligently we all study the form and search for value bets, the one factor that will "muddy the waters" is the regular "boat races" which are happening in races with less than 7 starters.
For example, today at Werribee, 31.1.03,
Race 5, was a classic example(note, I mentioned this in a recent post). Spurious, a well-credentialled horse was well supported, as was Spontane. Well.......Spurious could not even run a place and guess what!...... the outsider of the field won.... Our Obe(ever heard of it?).
But hey!.... we have to use this to our advantage and include the longshot in our multiples in small fields. I think this is the genesis of a potential profit-making system - disregard form, class of runners etc....and concentrate on the outsider in small fields as someone is obvously benefiting from backing exotics in these races, particularly on interstate TAB's.....makes you wonder....