Hi guys,I don't want anyone to think I have gone stark raving mad,but what the heck.This is something that I stumbled on by accident,but it does work.
Rule 1.Wait for the first race to be run and won,at any venue.You then back that number in the 2nd race to repeat.If it doesn't,you then have two numbers to back in the 3rd race.If one of those don't win you then back the 3 numbers in the next race,and so on until a winner is struck.Once a winner is hit,betting ceases at that venue.That's it.One rule only.Sound too simple?Sound silly?Have I lost my marbles?NO!It works.I have yesterday's Cairns Post in front of me,there were 18 meetings covered by Unitab over Sat./Sun.and every one of them had a repeat winner!This is not an unusual occurrence either,I have been monitoring it for over 12 months and it happens quite often.It also works on the trots and dogs.Race7 at Toowoomba threw up one at 32.60/5.10. I need some aaaaaa opinion here,as to how to operate it.I'm inclined to make a Dutch book,operate on 4 meetings only,with a target to win a clear profit of $100 at each venue.If you have a newspaper in front of you,check the weekend results for yourself.Check yesterdays results.Check every meeting,trots,dogs,the lot.You will find repeaters everywhere.All ideas and thoughts,any input would be greatly appreciated.Cheers,angel416(lunatic?)

angel,

that system HAS to work on the greyhounds....they have 10 races on the card and only 8 boxes per race....at least 1 box has to repeat at the meeting.....the problem is sorting out your bets and amounts if you go say 5 races without a repeat....the gallops are a different matter, it could be catastrophic going into the last race with say 7 tab numbers riding on the last in a 16 horse field....

cheers, noel

Angel416
What you have put forward is something I have also looked at. The problem is the accumulative affect of several losing races in a row.
Another "repeater" system is that of following winning jockeys, the logic being that when a jockey rides a winner his/her confidence is boosted.
I remember some time ago at Victorian ? country meeting, number 13 won the first 3 races, all at big odds, and 2 of them ridden by the same jock. Good luck following this, it's a lot of work.
Mark

Angel416,

I tend to think this would be quite dangerous as you would have to use some sort of loss-chasing staking in conjunction with Dutch Book to recover your losses and bet size could get out of hand very quickly - eg by the last race you could easily be trying to win $1000 on a dutch book of 7 runners - bets would be huge. Also if you end up with a lot of selections in a single race you could get into the situation where even if one of your selections wins you still lose on the race.

Just out of interest I had a look at the gallops and trots results for yesterday:

Weribee - 13 bets for a $1.90 winner in R8
Esk - 11 bets for $3.70 winner in R6
Cessnock - 2 bets for 2.70 winner in R3
Harold Park - 1 bet for 3.60 winner in R2
Albion Park - 26 bets for 7.20 winner in R8
Globe Derby - 6 Bets for 3.10 winner in R4
Gloucester - 3 bets for 2.80 winner in R3
Mildura - 26 bets for no result

So 88 bets for total of $25.00 in divs.

Didnt check the greyhounds in detail but most of them you would have been going 5 or 6 races before collecting (Lismore won on R2 and Gosford R3 - everything else was 5 or more I think). Could be difficult to make a profit backing 5 or 6 in a field of 8!

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

ahh yes, i also believe a that a numbers system could work.
i did the emotionless tipster routine on the greyhounds just using winning box numbers on
trifecta and first four.
just went through my results and a sample of 8oo races from albion park threw up some interesting results.
over a period of time certain box no,s will have a small edge. eg albion park is
box 1 %18.1 win %16.1 2/3
box 2 %14.9 win %13.8 2/3
top2
bottom 2
box 5 %10.5 win %11.1 2/3
box 6 %8.7 win %10.7 2/3
as you can see a little advantage .
not form driven so it flys in the face of being smart but with a good staking system?
food for thought maybe

Rooburger (or any other dogs punters out there),

I have never bet on greyhounds so excuse my ignorance but are the box numbers in greyhound racing assigned randomly or is there some significance (eg. is the "best" dog supposedly allocated 1, etc)?

If they are assigned randomly then there could be some substance to your results as I could see that at some tracks/distances there may be advatages to certain boxes which could be used to your advantage in the long run - of course the question is do the prices already reflect these advantages/disadvantages and is there enough of a discrepancy to overcome the TAB margin?

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

becareful

The greyhound box draw is randomly done for every race using a box thingy with coloured balls (eg. 1-8). It is amazing how often certain trainers can be allocated box 1, but as people can arrange to witness the box draw I dont think any dodgy business goes on anymore.

Release The Hounds - thanks for that. I did a quick analysis on the relative success of each box number over the last year (ignoring any emergencies) for every greyhound race run. As Rooburger noted box 1 is the most successful (19.4% SR) followed by 8 (14.4) and 2 (14.2) with 6 the least successful (10.4). However it seems that the punters overestimate the advantage of box 1 and overbet it as it has one of the biggest losses - 6 is worst followed by 1 and 8. Box 2 is the best profit wise but still loses nearly 13%. Once again the highest strike rate is not the most profitable!

Anyway I have wasted enough space on this thread so will leave it for anyone who has comments on Angels original post.

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-02-19 23:12 ]

I'm neither spruiking nor bagging this "system"...but, Saturday Syd, Melb & Bris results are as follows. Using Unitab divs. Bris numbers, Outlay 14, return 27.9, Bris jocks, out 17, in 25.8, Syd numbers, out 25, in 14, Syd jocks, out 15, in 19.1, Melb numbers, out 23, in 20.6, Melb jocks, out 11, in 14. Total outlay 105, return 121.4, win 16.4 or 15.6% POT. This may or may not be a one-off, may be a good day or an ordinary day, who knows, & returns would have been better with the choice of bookies or Tab. Could be worth following by somebody with more time than me.

Sorry, I've just re-read Angel416's original post. The results I posted did not stop at a winner but completed the whole meeting.
ps the Melb treble (qld tab)was won by 12, 12 & 12.