I just look at the bigger picture. Value is value, is it not? Laying someting at $17 that is a true $51 chance (in my opinion, obviously) is value. Since May 2011, I have layed 87 horses at greater than $11, of which only 3 have won. Total profit on these is $456, which represents 39% of the hold. I'm in a position now that 3 of these longshots would have to win for me to get into the red again ( I lay them at $200 liability). But then again there will be a high percentage of losers in between to help recoup the losses. Am i wrong?

Cheers Mo, I will read through all that today.

About my method, If i showed you how I rate speed then you would see me for the hobby punter and idiot that I am. Its the type of rating that wouldn't satisy the Woof's of this world, but it provides me with a base to start from.

Then the rest is all opinion & supposition. But that's this game really. No one "knows" how a race will unfold, who is ready to produce their best, who is going to put in a shocker, etc. We just form an opinion. No moving averages & logits will create a crystal ball.

The problem is the time and energy it takes to eek this profit. I find it draining, but at the same time I have no plans to find a new hobby. And I am also well aware that I am the worst gambler in the world. Whenever i do a pure gamble, it never comes off. My recent success is on the back of 20 years of losses. But at least I realise that. And it's all because I decided to add some discipline to my punting, and not just go down to the pub at noon every Saturday, see the guys, have some beers and hope for the best.

Not at all.
Its an emotional issue for me.
I would feel as though the world had ended and feel devastated.
If you can control your emotions to match what the result actually means , then you have what many posters advise , and that is having the personality and the discipline to actual be successful at Punting

Even the sharpest and most expensive tools will yield poor results in the hands of an inept tradesman.

That you have access to this sort of information is the reason why you are successful.
I don't do this.
I know should and have everything to gain by doing so and zero to lose , except perhaps some time.

Could you tell me something about 2 scenarios that could occur in these 87 Wagers?

Supposing you had a horse rated at $50 and the man wanted $10
I figure from what you write , that you would let him have $20 on it at $10 and that would be that for that Race.

And supposing in another Race where you had something Rated at $14 and the man wanted $10 , then again, you would let him have $20 on it at $10 and that would be that for the race.

Is that so?
Tell me if not.

If it is , can you see that the animal that you have given almost no chance , is being treated exactly the same as the animal that you give some sort of chance?

I have a Formula here that AngryPixie helped me with that will help you take advantage of the discrepancy between your rated Price and the other Player.

Moeee, in one of those sheets Kennedy had, he asked for such a filter, I put in a z score filter, that would eliminate runs based on a zscore.
If you enter into your spreadsheet (ART- avg of all runs)/ stand deviation will produce a z score you may decide you don't want to include in your calculations any run that scores more then 1.00.
example
1 form line time = 19.807
average all runs = 19.722
stdevp .313
(19.807-19.722)/.313 = .271
this run is kept in your calculations.
Your better to look at a formline based on a z score I feel

My main performance variable, no matter if I'm betting on racing , greyhounds and to more an extent pacing, are all based to a degree on Time and distance.
answer these two questions an you know what i'm doing.
How long is a race?
When is the race over?

First of all can I say that I actually understood this post , and the previous one of yours.

My concern is that should the bad z-score be its most recent run , then I feel it is significant and i want to make the decision whether it is dismissed or not.

While I'm here , Here's GEELONG RACE 5 for this afternoon.

4 DYNAMIC VIEW $3.8
1 BLACK PHYSIQUE $4.7
6 MOUSE'S IMAGE $6.1
7 WHAT AN EFFORT $6.3
2 VUVUZELA $7.6
9 LEKTRA GOLD $16
10 DONS DAUGHTER $66

2 Winning Chances and 3 further place chances should provide the Trifecta.
I have the Winner as coming over the top of the weak front runners

To go to a venue that has Keno isn't such a bad thing and could be the spark one needs, Keno which has a negative expectation, but also has moving probabilities can allow you to develop skills in discipline and understanding wagering probabilities that are required in these other more complex games

Maybe you should have Raw averages and adjusted avgs, and look a zscores for each run instead of looking at the times if the zscore moves towards a minus its racing above avg and so on

How's that?

I just layed Queens Fashion at $15.47. Rated at $41. Short half head and I look plain silly.

I'll tell you the worst thing. If one of these gets up early in the day, you KNOW you will end up the day in loss. You simply can't recoup the $200 in one day. Its a ******** feeling.

Maybe I should look at less than $10 only.