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#21
9th April 2012, 01:21 PM
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Woof, are you Mr Z? lol Funny thing is i only gamble on the gallops. Never do Keno, lotto, scratchies, pokies, etc 
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#22
9th April 2012, 01:22 PM
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10 DONS DAUGHTER $66 Yes thats the Rating I gave the Winner of the race. And thats the reason I don't LAY dogs and never will. Certainly not the roughies anyway.
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#23
9th April 2012, 01:28 PM
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I think I have seen you pose that question before. Are you getting at that the winner runs 1200m im 70 sec, but the 2nd horse 1197m in the same time, etc? I give the race a rating in points, and adjust for beaten margins. The rating is an average rating as I don't see the point of just looking at final time, so I also give the final 600m a rating as well. I convert each race to a standard, and use 1200m as my standard. So if the race is 1600m, I divide the time by the 1600m Par then multiply by the 1200m Par.
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#24
9th April 2012, 01:33 PM
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Just keep doing what you are doing and keep examining the areas like you did with the 87 roughies. If it starts turning to ******** , then maybe think about sticking with under $10 shots. But you could still get your money back is say you laid a $2.50 shot , and it lost , you win nearly half your money back right there. But you are looking at and experiencing the Big Picture Raven , so you should be just fine.
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#25
9th April 2012, 01:37 PM
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Mo, I do not lay EVERY underlay. I'm not that good. I pick out between 3 and 12 horses to lay on a Sat. I get a gut feel for a horse mostly. If I'm confident my asessment is rock solid, I need big value to get involved. That's with the roughies anyway. So no, I doubt I would lay a horse at $10 If i rated it at $14, unless I had a gut feel. Did it run well off a VVF pace last start? Was it pace advantaged, etc? I do that ********. For example on Sat, I layed Ofcourseican at $17. Now she would have rated OK as she did rate 103 last start and More Joyous only rated 100. BUT, she was advantaged by a massive outside bias & pace advantaged by a VVF pace, and suited at handicap conditions in producing this rating. $34 was probably a fair assessment there
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#26
9th April 2012, 04:22 PM
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as if he would frequent forums. but keno does lend it self to be worked over probability wise, if you have a spare hour or two every day
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#27
9th April 2012, 04:29 PM
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if you multiply the time by distance this becomes your track constant, then you just divide the other times into this track constant to get the distance it covered in the same time. but you would have 3 or more track constants that provide cross hairs on a runners performance, these are fixed(track record) , relative(par or an average standard) and moving(todays performance). these would form your basis of performance. everything is adjusted in metres.
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#28
11th April 2012, 11:29 AM
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Mo, a few questions.
In the formguide for dogs, when you see the time & early split for each dog's previous runs, are they the actual time that dog ran, or is it the winners time & you have to adjust for beaten margins? I assume the latter, I also assume the lead split time is the leaders only. What about weight. Is the weight of a dog significant? Are variations in weight from last start worth considering? I sense this is my next little project.
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#30
11th April 2012, 12:42 PM
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I have very busy day today and I will get back to you eventually Raven.
But with the FormGuides , the time is what the animal actually ran in the Guide that I use. Same with the First Split. A dogs weight can be important in certain situations. I don't utilize it much as a Factor , But I do consider weight changes from the previous run , especially when the animals are returning from a spell.
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