Luckyboy,

I might be able to assist you with improving your refining of chances in pre-post markets. You state that newspaper pre-polls secure approximately 70% of winners by refining your analysis to the first six horses in the market. As I have said previously, these markets are not a true reflection of the market.
To alleviate this I suggest you certainly refine your study to the first six in the market but make sure you use the opening market quoted on the radio or preferably the opening market shown on Skychannel.
These are infinitely more accurate as they take into account overnight market movers and support for first starters etc
I am certain if you utilise this strategy you can refine your success rate to about 85%(only taking notice of first six in market).

Cheers and let me know how you get on.

Luckyboy,

In relation to that jockey replacement factor, it works a treat with Greg Ryan around the provincials. I have been researching this approach for a while and I believe there may be the makings of a system there, concentrating solely on G M Ryan's mounts. The only draw-back is that rank and file punters follow him religiously and sometimes value is hard to get but it provides an excellent strike-rate.

Cheers.

Xanadu,

Thanks for the opening price tip. I will have a look at this over the next few months and give you an update.

I agree with you about Greg Ryan. The challenge is to find value with him. On the subject of jockeys (and I have never actually annalysed it) but Nash Rawiller is one who springs to mind particularly with horses trained by Mayfield-Smith.

You might have some information on this?


LB

Luckyboy,

After running a few tests regarding Average Prizemoney, the filters which have most impact are Win % and last start lengths beaten or won.

I found that you can turn a level stakes profit backing horses starting at greater than $2.00 but less than $3.00, ranked first in API, greater than 50% win rate or greater and last start winner.
This was enhanced eliminating all 3YO horses.

This also showed a profit place betting.

It reflects that using API as an indicator along with other filters is very powerful.

Interesting to note that barrier position, track or distance win and place percentage, even weight carried was largely irrelevant to profit.

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Chrome Prince,

Thank you for your analysis. Can you tell me the number of bets and time period of your study?


LB

Luckyboy,

Sorry for the delay in my reply.

This is the problem, my database was only started since 1/1/2003, so the number of qualifying bets is obviously minimal.

However, I do have confidence in the longterm success of it, because of the very high strike rate and the number of winners which make up the actual profit.

Here is a full workout of results....

RULES
1. Greater than or equal to 50% Win strike rate.
2. Ranked #1 Average Prizemoney.
3. Last Start Winner
4. Starting within 30 days of last start.
5. Tote price must be less than $3.00 just prior to the jump.
6. Meropolitan tracks only***

Bets - 50
Winners - 26
Placngs - 46***
Win Strike Rate - 52.00%
Place Strike Rate - 92.00%
Win Profit - $6.30
Place Profit - $9.00
Win Profit On Turnover 12.60%
Place Profit On Turnover 18.00%
Win Average Dividend $2.17
Place Average Dividend $1.28

If you eliminated all horses starting at less than $2.00 this is the result....

Bets - 31
Winners - 17
Placngs - 27***
Win Strike Rate - 54.84%
Place Strike Rate - 87.10%
Win Profit - $11.20
Place Profit - $5.90
Win Profit On Turnover 36.13%
Place Profit On Turnover 19.03%
Win Average Dividend $2.48
Place Average Dividend $1.37

Obviously, the sample is small, and needs a lot more data to draw conclusions, but it does indicate the power of strike rate combined with API.

What gives a lot of confidence is the very high place P.O.T. provided you stick to the price filters.

I have followed this for some time, and while sometimes you'll miss a borderline bet because of very late price fluctuations on the tote, this is more than compensated for by using IAS or Betfair to get much better dividends.

Hope this helps.

Chrome Prince,

Very promising!

Given my recent poor run and you recent data is it possible for you to tell me the number of winners/placegetters if you changed the win % greater than 50% to a place % greater than 50%?

Sorry to appear pushy, but you got me curious!


LB

No problem Luckyboy...I started the ball rolling, so I guess I have to follow up rather than leave anyone in the dark.

RULES
1. Greater than or equal to 50% Place strike rate.
2. Ranked #1 Average Prizemoney.
3. Last Start Winner
4. Starting within 30 days of last start.
5. Tote price must be less than $3.00 just prior to the jump.
6. Meropolitan tracks only***

Bets - 79
Winners - 34
Placngs - 69
Win Strike Rate - 43.04%
Place Strike Rate - 87.34%
Win Profit - -$6.20
Place Profit - $5.50
Win Profit On Turnover -7.85%
Place Profit On Turnover 6.96%
Win Average Dividend $2.14
Place Average Dividend $1.22

If you eliminated all horses starting at less than $2.00 this is the result....

Bets - 53
Winners - 21
Placings - 43
Win Strike Rate - 39.62%
Place Strike Rate - 81.13%
Win Profit - -$0.70
Place Profit - $2.00
Win Profit On Turnover -1.32%
Place Profit On Turnover 3.77%
Win Average Dividend $2.49
Place Average Dividend $1.28


Not a good result!

Chrome Prince,

Thanks for your effort in putting together that piece of analysis.

Your findings have given me a bit more of an idea as to what may be wrong in my selection process - 'place percentage'.

I have found that you cannot look at place percentage in isolation of win percentage.

I think I may be on the way back!


LB

Luckyboy,

A piece of advice.....

In THIS scenario backing very short priced horses (usually selective favourites) the win % filter created the profits but did not really increase the strike rate by much.

In other areas it may be the place % which is a better filter....2nd 3rd faves etc.

It is not necessarily the strike rate which creates the profit.

My advice is don't immediately think that win% is the be all and end all - it just created a profit in this example....but in others may not as you lose the likelihood of better average dividend.