"All those newbies that you campaign for are saying where do we look"

Maybe you could start here.

Race Distance: 1400 - 1800
Minimum Starts: 3
Day of Week: 1347
Venue: X
Age of Horse: 4 - 7
Barrier Position: 1 - 9
Last Start SP: 0.0 - 2.0
2nd Last Start SP: 0.0 - 1.9
Exclude Fillies Races: Y
Exclude Mares Races: Y
Exclude F & M Races: Y



There are plenty of people around here that have far more talent and experience than I'll ever have so instead of bashing each other up verbally all the time how about you show us newbies how to turn the above 15 minute effort in to a non form system that has a 35-40% SR and far bigger POT.

My D I C K is bigger than yours is amusing for a while but it gets boring and doesn't achieve much.

Barny,

I am with you on this one. I do not do any form analysis. I don't even know the names of the horses that I bet on until I see the results. Using a commercial BOT for back bets there are very few form filters than can be applied. I rely on the market to get the prices right and determine the favourite. The rest is down to long term statistics.

There are two types of punters that visit this forum, the form guys and the statistics guys.

Thank you macs. I was going to move forums as have many talented and experienced members have done, for exactly this reason. Somebody has hijacked the entire forum, cut and pasting old posts and churning them. whilst doing so has boldly stated that all presently on the forum know nothing and only he has the secrets. And under no circumstances is he going to share. My question is "Why should I leave? Why did the others leave? and why do we have to put up with craaap and vitriol?" Until everybody is able to post without being set upon, then you are not going to get any quality. Unless there is some quality it is pointless to be here. Unless there is two-way sharing it is pointless sharing. There are many good threads started here only to go of the rails because of several people not agreeing and lambasting their position.

I, for one don't want to see Barny leave. In among some of his ranting has some very valid points. However I would like to see him pull is head in and see what has happened to this once excellent forum. EVERYTHING Barny knows he got from this forum. EVERYTHING.

Now Barny states that he can easily turn any system from a loser into a winner with his six magic filters. I am saying that boasting about them does not cut the mustard. Either put up or give us back our forum.

Had you moved Beton , which Forum would you have moved to?
I wouldn't mind reading posts from the talented and experienced members that moved there.

I do not really know how to reply to this conversation or if I can add anything to it.

But, here goes. The more I look at the race form pre race and study it after the race is over plus look at the betting market and the betting activity and the end race result I have to say that I am finding it difficult to see many common denominators.

We have talked on here in other threads of following the crowd. First fav wins more then the second etc. Number One saddlecloth wins more then number two etc. and so on. These statistics never change, and have remained constant all over the world and for over fifty years and more.

We hear that the Fav is under bet and the longshot is overbet for its correct odds. Yet,we still not tilt the table to our advantage.

We are told to only bet when we have value, like if we price a horse at $3 and you can get better , then it is a good bet.

Unfortunately, this is not all working out for me. Now, I have had a few systems going and keep tweaking them to the point where I feel I am close enough to where I can be on a winning system or at least not a massive losing one.

But one thing that I find strange is that looking back over my records, small as they maybe, the short odds eg Under $4.00 horses are no more successful then the $6 to $12 bracket.

The fact that a horse is say $3 does not give me a three times better strike rate then on paying $9. When I look at the horses that beat these short price horses I sought of see where Barny is coming from.

The only tweaking I am looking for now is to find some other mysterious factors that the public are ignoring and are ( not form related ).

All horses have some form, regardless of how unexposed it is, otherwise the owners and trainers would not persist with it. But for a non form related system to be successful it would only be able to survive by being market driven in reverse.

To be successful, you would have to have some real longshgots inthere to overcome the expected long losing streak. But as I have said earlier , in my experience the $3 shot is no more likely then the $9 one.

Making sense, probably not, possibly a lot of cobblers, but I feel I have tightened my selections up enough, I just need to release the brakes a little to find a few more elusive longer price winners that can turn a struggling system into a winning one.

If we tighten up to much we cut our chances considerably especially, in my case, when the shorter priced ones do not have a better strike rate than my longer priced ones.

That is the reason I was interested in what Barny was saying. We all have different view points, but I know, if I keep doing what I have always done then I know what the final result will be. Just a slight tweak is what I am looking for.


Star

Thanks for that Beton but my post was not pointed at anyone in particular nor was it a challenge for just Barny. I hope someone takes the time to improve it and post the results, we might learn something!

I've noticed over the 18 months that I've been coming here many regular posters have disappeared and unfortunately a large percentage of them are the very people that I formed the opinion were very successful punters that we could learn from.

I've been using forums for 10-15 years for different personal interests and I've seen plenty come and go. The problem with agro on forums is that it makes them become irrelevant and eventually disappear. The masses here, like any other forum, are lurker members and if they see agro garbage every time they log on they go elsewhere, it's of no use to them.

I know we're talking about money, the root of all evil but the best forums I've ever belonged to were all about learning and sharing. You don't have to give your shirt away here, just make it a pleasant experience, it's not that hard.

Exactly. You are waiting for Barny to impart his promise to you. For him to give you a glimmer of light. We all are. We have all got our little secrets that we hold close. However we still point people in the right direction and help them. Barny IS NOT GOING TO SHARE PERIOD. and while he scoffs at all that try, then there will not be much said. Go back to when Barny started on the forum and take a list of posters. and ask yourself where have most gone? and ask why. DON'T ASK. DEMAND THAT A SENSE OF DIGNITY REMAINS IN THE FORUM. I am not asking for any one to leave. Just pull their head in a bit.

PS If I get booted I don't care. It will show that the management is blind and prepared to good go elsewhere in support of craaap.

Well said macs. It is exactly why I fired up instead silent protest. I am asking Barny to put up or shut up. He made the boast. Beton

Beaton, You and I and Barny have had good discussions previously. I remember when I started the Pareto Principle thread. Which apparently was Mark11 because their was one of a similar name many years ago.

I know that Barny is not going to share, he told me that a long time ago, but, he still does get one to rethink their stratergies even if he does spesk in riddles and sometimes appears to contradict himself when we read back or remember some of his posts.

To me, nothing really wrong with that, my position is never constant. Although, I think I am right in saying that many times in his threads and replies that for a system to be successful the rules must have some logic in them, buggar if I can see any in his latest "No Form " system, hence it would of been good for him to explain his thinking a bit better.

Star

Star All I am asking him is to explain better as well. He does not have to give his six secret filters away. All he has to say "look at the saddle numbers" look at days last start etc. At least then he may start doing good instead of beating his chest and shooing evrybody away.