an edited version of my gradings...have hundreds sire, dams on original.

Attached Files

Breeding Performance Ratings 1.xls (52.0 KB, 560 views)

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

So essentially any sire's and dam's that perform below the overall average are simply not graded and discarded. and then from there the gradings progressively increase with Grade 1 beving average and Grade 6 being exceptional?

Sounds like a reasonably simple approach but as you've said it could be a time consuming exercise to bring together the results of all the sire's/dam's "children". You'd have to have a database that would allow you to do so, or to complete it manually would be time consuming but rewarding once you have it in place.

The way you've approached this is similar to how i'm approaching my current backing endeavour, find a niche thats not readily available or easily constructed for the public and get it into a profitable methodology.

On a side note, have you or do you utilize the gradings to change your staking?

Just as an example if all race/horse filters are met:

Grade 6 sire / Grade 6 Dam: Back for 12 points
Grade 3 sire / Grade 5 Dam: Back for 8 points
Grade 4 sire / Grade 1 Dam: Back for 5 points

etc etc or some variation of this?

Would be interesting to see (if you haven't already) if this increases your profitability and/or what Gradings offer the best POT. For example a horse that has grade 6 sire/dam may be a little overbet due to its expectional parents and therefore have a lower POT compared to say a horse with grade 4 sire/dam as they are a little less underrated possibly by bettors and offer more value?

Sorry for all the questions, just some ideas i picked up

I can have 5 to 6 web pages open at any given time as I construct my gradings. Yes it is time consuming but worth it. Sires that have a lower number of runners may change in grading depending on what their progeny do so it is an ongoing process. On the other hand, a sire with many progeny, say 500+ may not change their grading at all as it takes quite a swing in performance to change the grade. A dam could change a rating easily if she produced a stakes winner for instance.

The Grades are also reflective of racing and not breeding. What I mean by that is the gradings do not take in to account all foals of a sire for instance, only those that get to the races and influence our punting. Winners to runners shows what chance we have of the system horse being a winner on average, of course the female line may give it a higher chance. Stakes winners to runners tells us if the sire or dam in question can impart class.

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

It does sound like something you could start from scratch reasonably easily and build on it as you go. I guess if you knew the right websites to have open then it could be reasonably easy and quick to update the gradings.

Maybe it could be a project for me if/when i finalise my current speed/pace approach with some success. I'm always interested in looking at angles for doing things which are not readily available or easily achievable to Joe Blow.

Still playing with this but because I am concerned with hitting that first win then it does not matter what the horse does after that so if it wins just one race I profit (hopefully)...the rating of sire or dam could play a part in the prediction of the horse having class and going on with further wins...further research needed.

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

Hi Cosmos,

Would you wager that ACAPELA (NZ)
b. M, 2007 DP = 2-4-9-3-0 (18) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.28 - 13 Starts, 4 Wins, 0 Places, 2 Shows Career Earnings: NZ$44,687

will run a strong 1900m this Saturday?

Very interested in your analysis and hope you're counting the cash from another successful maiden raid!!

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

hey there TS...my thoughts are that Acapela should get 1400m to 2000m or thereabouts. All it's runs have been around the 1400-1600m mark so should get first try at 1900m. Her sire Elusive City is speed.

Has a good stamina/speed input with the damside female line providing stamina input by Carnegie, Whiskey Road, Showdown and Bellborough.

Dam Taylor's Park won a 1600m maiden, granddam Slightly Pink won 2 races at 1400m & 2150m, 3rd dam Red Rebecca won to 2050m, 4th dam Bellition won to 2800m.

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

Thanks Cosmos,

I'm delving ever deeper in the world of breeding and dosages.

I always appreciate your analysis!

Hope all is well with you.

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

not much happening on the maiden system at the moment but my Pedigree of the Week page carries on it's winning way...today at Hastings Philippa Charlotte wins at $7.60 (NZ TAB)

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

Have added to my stable ...Paeroa 02 Sept. 2013 race 6 Maiden. Julieta 4yo mare by Darci Brahma out of Mareva by Zabeel. 3x2 Zabeel via daughter's Grand Echezeaux and Mareva. First foal of dam. Granddam Summary (Tierce) 7 runners, 5 winners incl. G2 winner, G1 placed Shikoba. 3rd dam Pampas Fire (Prince True) 7 runners, 5 winners incl. stakes winner Cloister (MRC Debutante Stakes). 4th dam Summoned (Crowned Prince) 16 runners, 13 winners incl. 5 stakes winners and dam of sire Zeditave.

Two starts, the first when 10th at Hawera on 16 May 2013 over 1200m. Put aside for 81 days before running 7th fresh up at Stratford on 05 Aug. 2013 over 1200m. Freshened from that run and steps up to 1350m here. Looks an improver and one to follow.

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“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”