Hi Mike367,

From the Q&A so far in this post, it shows something that we have been saying all along. Unfortunately to most punters detriment, they have very little factual understanding about the real statistics behind their punting decisions. Some tend to accept a few good or bad results as the norm without knowing the implications of the long term trends.

RP is right, you asked for the paper favourite. This is in most cases is based on the AAP newspaper fed prices. It is NOT the favourite or a reflection of the true opening price. It is nothing more than a subjective/predictive rating that has been adopted in order to provide something to the masses to facilitate TAB turnover. Obviously it does have a bearing on what horses are likely to be fancied, but as its free, and available in every paper and most form providers, it is over bet.

These days you need a database (the most successful punters have one Mike) so you are competing against a fairly large handicap if you don't and can't answer questions like the one you asked for yourself. Those that don't use a database rely on years of experience and/or they use a pile of newspapers, cut-outs, index cards or rely on their memory and/or spreadsheets that they collect data in. Some may say that they don't use a database, yet all of the above are in some way or another a form of a information collection/storage etc similar to a database. Whilst we accept that this is a cost effective option for some, it is also time consuming to the point that any time/money calculation would show its cost to exceed that of a good quality database.

You can get our database for research purposes (Axis Historical) for just over a $1 a day ($396/annually). That's peanuts for what it delivers! It contains an extensive historical record of predictive ratings and all the research tools you could need. Given our propensity to improve the product, we are constantly adding more features and intelligence that our clients enjoy for no additional cost. See our website for full details.

OK, to answer your question, the Top rated paper favourite over the last 22,000 races has delivered approximately a win strike rate of 25.9 % and a place strike rate of 54.8%. Interesting isn't it when the reality sets in! Without really knowing what you have, most operate under misconceptions that the strike rates are much higher, all based on unqualified assumptions.

By the way we had to use a competitors product to get these as we don't maintain the records of the newspaper favourite. Why ?

Our predictive rating (Intelligence Rating )(IR) over the long term delivers a strike rate of Win 26.8% and Place 58.3%. However for those that may want to, we can enable our clients to import up to 5 external ratings in order to be able to completely analyse their performance across common variables and those that are proprietary and not known by the masses.

All the best

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Strike rate is one thing but what sort of POT or LOT was obtained with those picks?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Hi The Ocho

LOT is significant well above average market.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Thank you for the info PaulD01, it's lower than I would have thought.

As for the data base, I have considered the idea, but they can only be as good as the questions you ask them.
I need a bigger list of questions before I buy one

Mike.

There would appear to be a couple of good laying methods, win and place, contained in there. My guess is that the paper favs which are not fav at race time would be a rich laying area.

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

SB Points I am alluding to in the unders and overs revisited thread. The PP fav says fav 54% of the time and has a 34% SR. which equates to just 18.6% of the total PP. The drift to the second fav is 23% for a 20%SR or 4.7% of the total PP and it goes to the dogs after this. Use the PP to pick the lays. You just have to understand how they move

Hi Mike367,

Agree in the main however when running an analysis within Axis over any criteria set, the result is that 115+ questions are answered immediately. This eliminates the need to know what you have to ask the computer in the first place.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Yes, Mr Beton. Have come to understand that it might be more about the movement, than the prices. The start point already containing everything you need to know or factor in about the past. As a starting point.

Ratings + Open + Movement = ROM (Reams of moolah - your own printing press perhaps?)

Oh Lordy, I can smell the ink on the paper.. FIRE UP the press, guv!


Cheers LG

PS Hit the little trumpet symbol in the moolah link. Worked for me

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Bendigo 30/10

R1 2nd
R2 2nd
R3 unpl
R4 unpl
R5 4th
R6 4th
R7 3rd
R8 3rd
R9 unpl (started fav)
R10 4th

Any bright ideas on a strategy, Speedy?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I've just woken up, My Lord. No bright ideas at the moment except to eat my weet bix. After I read Paul's post yesterday I laid 3 paper favs for the place. One was the actual fav and I was pretty confident it would place. It blew like the north wind after I laid it so I traded out at a profit pre race. It ran second. The other two lost. Had I left the lay bet on I would have lost overall.

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.