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  #1  
Old 8th November 2013, 05:36 PM
Vortech
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Default Short Turnaround
I'm currently running without a database
But I'm wondering if any other punters have invested time into runners within a Days Last Start of 3-5 days

Can someone please test the following over their database

Days Last Start = 3-5 days
Career starts = 1-6
Last Start Position = 4th or worse

Appreciate

Regards
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  #2  
Old 9th November 2013, 10:31 AM
mattio mattio is offline
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Hi Vortech,

I ran this for you going back to start of 2008 and the results suggest that this finds longshots.

Code:
SHORT TURNAROUND
Career Starts:   1 -   6
Days to Last Start:   3 -   5
Last Start Finish Pos:  4 - 24
 
SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: TEST_SHORT TURNAROUND 01/01/2008-07/11/2013
                 WIN      PLACE    QUINELLA    EXACTA    TRIFECTA   FIRST FOUR
Races Bet:     858       855        858        857         858          793
Races Won:      69       191        106         52          40           30
S.R./Race:       8.0%     22.3%      12.4%       6.1%        4.7%         3.8%
Outlay($):     909.00    906.00    4916.00    4927.00    22092.00     72540.00
Return   :     903.50    715.94    4194.80    5102.70    24132.30     50146.40
$ Profit :      -5.50   -190.06    -721.20     175.70     2040.30    -22393.60
% P.O.T. :      -0.6%    -21.0%     -14.7%       3.6%        9.2%       -30.9%


I'll run it again with last start 1-3 and see what that gives you.

Matt.
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  #3  
Old 9th November 2013, 01:36 PM
bernie bernie is offline
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Hi mattio,

What if we take out the Career starts 1-6 and replace it with Won at Course?

Cheers,
B
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  #4  
Old 9th November 2013, 01:43 PM
mattio mattio is offline
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Hi Bernie,

Sure I can do that, had a hiccup with the DB software so had to re-run it for LSF 1-3 which is looking alot better.

Cheers,

Matt.
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  #5  
Old 9th November 2013, 02:19 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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As a rule, mares and fillies do not back up well and need longer than colts geldings and horses. Mares more so than fillies.

Eliminate fillies and mares.
Career starts 1 - 6
Days break 3 - 5

Last start placing irrelevant.

Profit $128.20
Pot 8.44%

Although strike rate only 10.73% and one dividend was $115.50.

Last run placing
1 22.22% strike rate 9.33% POT
2 23.70% strike rate 4.37% POT
3 15.97% strike rate 14.03% POT
4 14.66% strike rate 20.43% LOT
>4 6.87% strike rate 11.35% POT

Again important to note, the double figure POTs all came from one bolter

Last start placing 1st or 2nd gives a nice 6.36% POT at tote prices without longshots making up the profit

*The above figures are eliminating fillies and mares.
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  #6  
Old 9th November 2013, 02:43 PM
mattio mattio is offline
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Vortech,

Here is the results with LSF 1-3.

Code:
SHORT TURNAROUND 2
Career Starts:   1 -   6
Days to Last Start:   3 -   5
Last Start Finish Pos:  1 -  3
 
SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: TEST_SHORT TURNAROUND 2 01/01/2008-07/11/2013
                 WIN      PLACE    QUINELLA    EXACTA    TRIFECTA   FIRST FOUR
Races Bet:     260       258        260        260         260          246
Races Won:      58       127         71         42          33           23
S.R./Race:      22.3%     49.2%      27.3%      16.2%       12.7%         9.3%
Outlay($):     266.00    264.00    1365.00    1368.00     5724.00     17628.00
Return   :     311.80    275.28    1126.40    1592.80     6731.20     26053.80
$ Profit :      45.80     11.28    -238.60     224.80     1007.20      8425.80
% P.O.T. :      17.2%      4.3%     -17.5%      16.4%       17.6%        47.8%
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  #7  
Old 10th November 2013, 11:34 AM
bernie bernie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattio
Hi Bernie,

Sure I can do that, had a hiccup with the DB software so had to re-run it for LSF 1-3 which is looking alot better.

Cheers,

Matt.
Do I understand you correctly, your results are from:

Days Last Start = 3-5 days
Won at course
LSF 1- 3

Cheers,
Bernie
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  #8  
Old 10th November 2013, 12:36 PM
mattio mattio is offline
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No, the last one posted has the original rules but LSF 1-3 instead of 4+, here are the results for the first test replacing Starts 1-6 with Won at Course.

Code:
SHORT TURNAROUND 3
Days to Last Start:   3 -   5
Last Start Finish Pos:  4 - 24
Won at This Course: Y
 
SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: TEST_SHORT TURNAROUND 3 01/01/2008-07/11/2013
                 WIN      PLACE    QUINELLA    EXACTA    TRIFECTA   FIRST FOUR
Races Bet:    1272      1267       1272       1272        1271         1214
Races Won:     157       420        247        124          93           66
S.R./Race:      12.3%     33.1%      19.4%       9.7%        7.3%         5.4%
Outlay($):    1375.00   1370.00    7512.00    7542.00    34224.00    118140.00
Return   :    1454.70   1397.64    8508.00    9013.80    37973.90     95282.80
$ Profit :      79.70     27.64     996.00    1471.80     3749.90    -22857.20
% P.O.T. :       5.8%      2.0%      13.3%      19.5%       11.0%       -19.3%


I will do these rules with LSF 1-3 next.
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  #9  
Old 10th November 2013, 03:11 PM
bernie bernie is offline
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Great stuff mattio, really appreciated.

Cheers,
Bernie
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  #10  
Old 10th November 2013, 04:32 PM
mattio mattio is offline
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No worries Bernie, here are the results of the latest test.

Code:
SHORT TURNAROUND 4
Days to Last Start:   3 -   5
Last Start Finish Pos:  1 -  3
Won at This Course: Y
 
SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: TEST_SHORT TURNAROUND 4 01/01/2008-07/11/2013
                 WIN      PLACE    QUINELLA    EXACTA    TRIFECTA   FIRST FOUR
Races Bet:     616       613        616        615         616          584
Races Won:     109       281        172         82          60           40
S.R./Race:      17.7%     45.8%      27.9%      13.3%        9.7%         6.8%
Outlay($):     676.00    673.00    3490.00    3532.00    15140.00     47676.00
Return   :     586.50    689.10    3320.60    2591.30    11701.40     40986.70
$ Profit :     -89.50     16.10    -169.40    -940.70    -3438.60     -6689.30
% P.O.T. :     -13.2%      2.4%      -4.9%     -26.6%      -22.7%       -14.0%


I will try and break them down over the next few days using CP's observations and see what I come up with.
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