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  #11  
Old 10th December 2013, 06:06 PM
beton beton is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
Maark
With a 50% strike rate I would set up a bank of 20 units and bet 1/20th of the highest point that the bank has reached, never reducing the bet. If you double your bank remove 50% of the profit as a dividend for yourself and reset your bet as 1/20th of the new bank.
20 unit bank - double to 40 units - withdraw 10 units - restart with a 30 unit bank and a 1.5 unit bet.
I would also check which price ranges are the most/ least profitable as your data builds up.
Maark
Unless you take the money off the table you have not won anything. You may have doubled your money in your betting bank but it is not profit until you make it profit. If you do not reward yourself with the profit, then you have to ask "what are you doing it for?"
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  #12  
Old 10th December 2013, 06:17 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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beton has a point here, you could always split any weekly profit, half for the bank and half for you.

Bank percentage is the only safe staking plan, as the bank grows so does your stake and profits.
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  #13  
Old 10th December 2013, 06:35 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beton
Maark
Unless you take the money off the table you have not won anything. You may have doubled your money in your betting bank but it is not profit until you make it profit. If you do not reward yourself with the profit, then you have to ask "what are you doing it for?"
as Crash used to say "a profit is not a profit until it's spent off the race course"
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  #14  
Old 10th December 2013, 08:36 PM
maark maark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
Maark
With a 50% strike rate I would set up a bank of 20 units and bet 1/20th of the highest point that the bank has reached, never reducing the bet. If you double your bank remove 50% of the profit as a dividend for yourself and reset your bet as 1/20th of the new bank.
20 unit bank - double to 40 units - withdraw 10 units - restart with a 30 unit bank and a 1.5 unit bet.
I would also check which price ranges are the most/ least profitable as your data builds up.


I like this idea..at the moment i am betting 5% of the bank.so it goes up or down as i win or loose..i had doubled my bank ,but had a loosing day so just short at the moment..If or when i do i will try this plan..i also like the idea of taking profit..Not sure how to set my bot to keep the highest bet,but will work it out.
Thanks again for the feedback
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  #15  
Old 10th December 2013, 09:08 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Do it on a daily or weekly basis not per bet as the swings will work against you.
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  #16  
Old 10th December 2013, 09:34 PM
maark maark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Do it on a daily or weekly basis not per bet as the swings will work against you.


so your saying bet my 5% of my starting bank all day and change this at the start of a new day or week according to the then balance?
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  #17  
Old 10th December 2013, 09:56 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maark
so your saying bet my 5% of my starting bank all day and change this at the start of a new day or week according to the then balance?

Yep, also known as ratchet staking. It stays at 5% (or whatever) for the day or week but doesn't go down on a losing day. Sort of like level stakes but with a new higher level on each day's/week's bank high.
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  #18  
Old 10th December 2013, 10:39 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maark
I like this idea..at the moment i am betting 5% of the bank.so it goes up or down as i win or loose..i had doubled my bank ,but had a loosing day so just short at the moment..If or when i do i will try this plan..i also like the idea of taking profit..Not sure how to set my bot to keep the highest bet,but will work it out.
Thanks again for the feedback
I should have said reset your bet the day after you reach a new high point. There's no need to reset it during a day's operations. As suggested above you could do it weekly but I'd favour the daily check.
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  #19  
Old 12th December 2013, 11:50 AM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maark
It is a place betting system..approx 50% strike rate..POT 16%..about 25 bets a week..average price $2.33...I dont mind less bets,just trying to get the strike rate up..
Filters at the moment:
I am not betting on slow or heavy tracks.
only bet on races between 1000 and 2000 m.
min 8,max 15 runners.
dont bet on last race


you were going OK with me until the last condition - that smells a bit like data back fitting for me and you have to be wary of that as there is no last race - its continuous. Some people claim the last race if different - I'm not so sure - it could have been in the old days when people were at the track.
If anything i think it could be the easiest as there can be a favourite bias as people look to get out.


However if you can maintain a 16% POT consistently you are in the top 1% of punters in the world.

The simplest way to improve that would be to place your bet where you get the most advantage - thus look for early fixed and also use BF.

Also carefully examine your " run of outs" sequence - if you have had a quite long and unexpected sequence somewhere it will be telling you that down the track your SR will " revert to the mean" and will reduce - thus putting pressure on the POT.

Last edited by aussielongboat : 12th December 2013 at 11:52 AM.
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  #20  
Old 12th December 2013, 01:09 PM
maark maark is offline
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I adopted the last race thing as looking back over past results i very rarely get a winner in the last anywhere..also it seems the earlier races are more profitable than the last few..I also saw this mentioned in another post recently and it got me thinking..I am not sure why this is the case,it even may be my selection method..
also another filter i use is betting only in races class 3 and above..but i might relax this and see if more bets is better.
Funnily enough i am on a run of outs at the moment..will see how it affects pot over time
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