Hey guys

I have now upped my bet and froze

what do you do when you are betting at a level your not used to ?

I'm not the one to ask but I reckon you should step it back a notch or two. Best to be able to sleep at night instead of worrying.

Can you build up a bit slower?

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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

The biggest issue punters face in punting is BANK MANAGEMENT. If you fail at it your likely to lose. If you are uncomfortable with your increase then as others said you need to reduce it to protect your bank. When people are uncomfortable with their level of betting they they make mistakes, and wrong decisions, as you obviously found out, but this is all part of the process.

I have heard many different ways that people grow their stake. Things like double the bank then double the bet. Or Triple the bank, double the bet and so on, the issue with this is that it takes your betting to a level that is way too high too fast all in one big leap this makes people uncomfortable and it makes no difference that you are obviously winning. The other issue is that this actually slows down the bank growth.

Best way to deal with growing your bet is to grow with the bank. Lets say that you started with a $1000 and your bet was $10 which is 1%. So you were happy to bet 1%. When you bank gets to $1200 and you are still betting $10 you are now NOT betting 1% you have reduced your bet to 0.83%. A 1% bet would now be $12 which is very easy to absorb as you would have gone through $11 and now $12. So not only are the stakes easy to absorb (get used to) your bank is growing faster due to the gradual increase in bet size rather then doing it in one big jump when one gets somewhere substantial like doubling the bank and so on.

If your bank increases too fast , then reduce the percentage thereby slowing the stake increases while still moving forward.

One caveat here, if you increased your bet to a level that is uncomfortable because you had to, due to situation like loosing a job or similar, then this is a whole new different issue. At the end the only way anyone will win is if they have a winning method and sound bank management, this includes a level of staking they are comfortable with. There is no way to get around that!

LOL Im getting of the soap box now .

Hope that helps

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Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Sound advice Michal.

The percentage of your bank you wager also needs to be adjusted based on the type of selections you bet on in my opinion.

For example, if you've got a particular selection method that just looks for horses at double figure odds then having 10, 20 or more losing win wagers in a row is nothing out of the ordinary.

So there's no way I'd be betting anything near 1% of a bank on this selection method. I wouldn't feel comfortable with the very large bank percentage draw downs.

From my experience many punters have expectations that bare no relation to punting reality.

For example, someone jumped on our tipster Lucky Lil's selections straight after a $15.00 winner was tipped then a few weeks later sent an abusive e-mail to us complaining that another one hadn't been tipped.

With just 2 or 3 tips running most Saturdays Lucky Lil isn't a miracle worker!

Totally correct. Your example is very valid. I would say that from experience a true long-shot systems can have 80 outs without raising a sweat. That's just mathematics, based on the given strike rate and sufficient sample size, although maths is not a very popular topic.

Another option would be to bet proportional to the odds on offer to take out say 4% of the bank. So a bet on a $20 selection might be just a few $ whereas a fave would attract a much bigger bet.

Regardless, using a percentage of the bank (what ever that method/percentage is) ensures that bets grow / shrink with the status of the bank in a very-easy-to-adjust-to increments.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Hi All,

To echo the comments of what both Michal, Neil and others have said I have posted part of a recent email that I wrote in response to a staking question. I have deleted the names and some other detail in order to protect the privacy of the individual.

If your bank is say $5,000 and you are betting to collect 5% of your bank then the collect objective is $250. Therefore the correct bet size assuming that your rating is correct @ $1.80 is $250 / $1.80 = $139. If the rating/market price was $4 then your bet would be $63. If your betting $313 on these types of bets then you will go broke.

There is nothing wrong with reducing your bet targets as your bank falls. The first priority is to stay in the game and to do that you must maintain your funds and secondly and most importantly your confidence. The races will continue indefinitely so there is plenty of time to make profit, but going broke generally permanent.

I do not advocate betting level stakes even if it means so called more profit at the end of sample testing. Betting proportionally will invariably deliver similar profits (and usually more long term) with far less bankroll risk as the drawdowns are far less severe.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

I disagree.
One cannot offer advice like that without knowing the further breakdown of statistics.
Firstly, Firehorse is clearly betting at an uncomfortable level.
This is disasterous and can lead to loss chasing. He has to be able to look at each race and shrug off the outcome without panic or anxiety.
Because you doubled your bank quickly, does not mean one should double the stakes, even if it's 1%, because none of us, apart from Firehorse knows the breakdown of odds that doubled his bank, and the likelihood of it repeating.

You must bet within your comfort zone, or the game is over before it starts.

Neil is correct, one needs to look at the overall picture and dissect it.
Clearly I doubt Firehorse is betting even money shots, and would hazard to guess that he's had a couple of outsiders come in. But again, that is pure guesswork. If that be the case, my advice to Firehorse is to withdraw his original bank, they can never get it back from him. Then continue as he always has done, and if his bank doubles again, then double his bet size.
Protect first, then play with "their" money.

Proportional betting only works if you are betting to overlays that you know from extensive history are overlays. And betting proportionally to price, makes no sense in the scheme of things, because "we" do not know anything about Firehorse's statistics. Maybe all his profit comes from $1.10 favourites, maybe they come from 50/1 shots, maybe eachway bets. So betting proportionally could send him bankrupt or evapourate his edge entirely depending which end of the spectrum he is.

This is not intended to be a debate between us, it is for the pure benefit of Firehorse alone.

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ok well what are some suggestions about getting out of the comfort zone

Not sure whether you mean you want to be out of your comfort zone or within your comfort zone???

Stay within your comfort zone, that zone should remain the same if you bet percentage of bank and have put away your initial bank.
Up staking with their money, not yours.
Always the best scenario for any punter.
Compounding is the best mathematical way to improve things without causing a freeze.

But compound profits, not your initial bank.

I guess that covers both meanings.

You're out of that zone the moment you start to worry about the outcome of a race or a day's betting.

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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg