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  #11  
Old 5th April 2014, 09:10 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Some interesting points of view.
I think it's a combination of the points mentioned and the track which throws the results.
It's a leaders track with a short straight, but also a fairly testing turn into the home straight. The camber of that turn is quite tight by comparison. Basically you have to be on the pace or leading, and able to handle a hard turn and hang on in the straight.

Therefore, although the strike rate is fairly consistent with other tracks, the horses generally start over the odds next start.
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  #12  
Old 6th April 2014, 05:00 PM
Tipsy Tipsy is offline
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You could add Geelong to that list
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  #13  
Old 9th April 2014, 02:43 PM
dcpg dcpg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Up the strike rate a little and add it to the above:

Last start winner at Bunbury
Racing within 30 days
Non metro track this start.

Selections 1,116
Winners 263
Strike Rate 23.57%
Profit $233.30
POT 20.91%
Average Dividend $5.13
Maximum Dividend $24.00

That makes it a total of 698.80 units profit and POT of 25.48% POT.


Bunbury Races today:
Chocolate Moon and Angel Wing are last start winners at Bunbury. Both are early favourites. Does this fit the criteria ? Will be watching them - even though I usually don't bet on WA races...
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  #14  
Old 9th April 2014, 04:39 PM
dcpg dcpg is offline
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Chocolate Moon just won - sprinting away from the field! Paid at least $4
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  #15  
Old 9th April 2014, 05:20 PM
dcpg dcpg is offline
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Angel Wing finished 4th. However, with a $1 bet on both horses, you would have made $4. That's 200% profit...
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  #16  
Old 9th April 2014, 08:14 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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The winner of race 8 was also a selection I believe, except that it was favourite.
So, two from 3 with one official selection which won at 4.0 local tote.
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  #17  
Old 9th April 2014, 09:45 PM
dcpg dcpg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
The winner of race 8 was also a selection I believe, except that it was favourite.
So, two from 3 with one official selection which won at 4.0 local tote.


Its ok if its favourite - with the "revised" second lot of rules. That means 2 winners out of 3 that were last start winners at Bunbury!
That's $6.30 from a $3 total bet. Sounds good to me...

Looking back to 26 March (last Bunbury Races), there were 2 picks for a 3rd and a win at $4.40.
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  #18  
Old 10th April 2014, 01:50 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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1/1/2014 to 31/3/2014

Last start winner at Bunbury
Racing within 30 days
Non metro track this start.

47 selections
11 winners
23.40% strike rate
Profit $1.20 (TAB price)
POT 2.55%

Place Profit $11.40 (TAB price)
24.26% POT
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #19  
Old 10th April 2014, 05:31 AM
kiwi kiwi is offline
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Question

Does the $93 winner distort the profit result?How likely is it that a huge outsider will win again?
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  #20  
Old 10th April 2014, 10:53 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Of course kiwi, but looking at the prices of winners, longshots often bob up.
They are sent out way over their true odds.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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