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  #1  
Old 23rd March 2017, 04:14 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Default AFL Betting Approach 2017

Hi All,

I'm going to try and post my bets before the first game of each round and see how I go. I'll follow my picks based on just 1 unit on each selection and then also an approach that varies the units based on certain factors. If anyone was to follow I'd suggest checking all bookies for the best available odds AND taking advantage of promos.

Note I'll simply write the team I'm backing (Win and at the line) along with the number of units for the varied method.

Round 1:
Carlton 2.5x
Sydney 2.5x
Melbourne 2.5x
Hawthorn 2.5x
Gold Coast 2.5x
Adelaide 2.5x
Fremantle 2.5x

Will post results after the weekend and will try my very best to stick at running this thread unless its a complete flop after a few rounds.
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  #2  
Old 30th March 2017, 11:02 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Poor week last week with lots of upsets for tipping and poor returns on my betting approach. Results were:

Win: -6.25 units 2/7 bets
Line: -7.825 units 2/7 bets

Round 2:
Collingwood 2.5x
Western Bulldogs 2.5x
Adelaide 1.5x
Essendon 1.5x
Geelong 1.5x
Carlton 2.0x
Port Adelaide 2.5x

I get the feeling Carlton are going to cost me again and not convinced on Adelaide or Collingwood either but ah well see what happens.
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  #3  
Old 7th April 2017, 12:18 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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A better week last week and a relatively easy tipping week as well.

Round 2:
Win: -0.2800 units 5/7 bets
Line: +5.2075 units 5/7 bets

Overall:
Win: -6.5300 units 7/14 bets
Line: -2.6175 units 7/14 bets

Round 3:
North Melbourne 1x
Richmond 2.5x
Geelong 1.5x
Fremantle 2x
Brisbane 1x
Carlton 2x
Gold Coast 2x

This round could be incredibly painful or incredibly lucrative. Almost all of the bets are home ground underdogs (NM, Tigers, Freo, Blues, Suns). If any of these can actually get the win, especially the higher unit plays then it could be a highly successful round. On the flip side if all of these underdogs get smashed then it could well be a painful round.
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  #4  
Old 10th April 2017, 09:28 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Well luckily the round was incredibly lucrative. Last few weeks i've waited until i've posted the tips to also post the results but after a major weekend of upsets in my favor i thought i'd do a little brag post of the results early this week. Here goes:

Round 3:
Win: +23.7050 units 5/7 bets
Line: +9.1200 units 6/7 bets

Overall:
Win: +17.1750 units 12/21 bets
Line: +6.5025 units 13/21 bets

Incredible round really given the number of underdogs i'd tipped but I think that goes to show how even the competition could be this year and also that home ground advantage still remain relevant to some extent.
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  #5  
Old 12th April 2017, 01:28 PM
thorns thorns is offline
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Well done. Cant complain with that result!
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  #6  
Old 12th April 2017, 02:10 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Not at all, too bad i'm not actually betting them though only testing a spreadsheet I put together last season.

I'll have the bets for this weekend up tomorrow before the swans/eagles game.
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  #7  
Old 13th April 2017, 04:17 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Round 4:
West Coast 2.5x
Western Bulldogs 2.5x
GWS 1.5x
Adelaide 2.5x
Gold Coast 1.5x
St Kilda 2.5x
Richmond 1.5x

EDIT: I'm not fond of these thursday start weekend and posting all my bets at the start of the weekend but it is what it is. If I wasn't posting on the forums i'd be checking the model i've created just prior to each game rather than doing them all on the one day but have at it.

Reasonably comfortable with this weekends selections. I think west coast, bulldogs, gws and adelaide should all win just depends if they cover their lines. The other 3 games are coin flips but could be a relatively break even sort of round.
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  #8  
Old 18th April 2017, 09:26 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Results from the weekend were incredible again, has to be a bad weekend or even just a breakeven weekend just around the corner. Results as follows:

Round 4:
Win: +6.8025 units 7/7 bets
Line: +8.5400 units 6/7 bets

Overall:
Win: +23.9775 units 19/28 bets
Line: +15.0425 units 19/28 bets

Betting as many games per weekend as I am its almost impossible to maintain a 67.9% strike rate on line bets so it has to revert at some stage. Will try get the bets for next weekend up on friday however i'll be away all weekend, will do my best.
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  #9  
Old 21st April 2017, 10:25 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Round 5:
Gold Coast 2x
Sydney Swans 2.5x
Fremantle 2.5x
St Kilda 2.5x
Hawthorn 2.5x
Collingwood 2.5x

I might be wishing I didn't post these before I went away but ah well lets see what happens.
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  #10  
Old 28th April 2017, 10:30 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Poor weekend last weekend which I have to say was a little expected. I wasn't comfortable with any of the selections really.

Round 5:
Win: -3.3750 units 2/6 bets
Line: -9.7000 units 1/6 bets

Overall:
Win: +20.6025 units 21/34 bets
Line: +5.3425 units 20/34 bets

On to this weekend and I've got about the same amount of confidence as last weekend. Ah well we stick to the system:

Round 6:
Hawthorn 2.5x
Carlton 2x
Port Adelaide 1.5x
Gold Coast 1.5x
Fremantle 2x
Melbourne 2.5x
Collingwood 2x
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