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  #21  
Old 22nd May 2017, 08:27 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Well you wouldn't believe it another profitable round of AFL betting and really it was only some frustrating umpiring and a bit of a choke by richmond again that meant the profit was a little lower. As a swans supporters I always thought we'd beat st kilda being back in form and still having so much on the line and that proved to be true. However geelong and north melb surprised me quite a bit.

Round 9:
Win: +5.6200 units 5/7 bets
Line: +9.0000 units 6/7 bets

Overall:
Win: +49.0375 units 38/61 bets
Line: +23.8425 units 40/61 bets

That takes us to +72.88 units overall for 9 rounds of footy also with the incredible strike rate of 65.6% on line bets which I can guarantee will not continue. Even level stakes would be up 42 units and were looking at POT's of 43% (win) and 26% (line) as well.
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  #22  
Old 22nd May 2017, 09:03 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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You know a sure fire way to get it to start reverting to the mean? Start putting your dollars on it!

But well done again!
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  #23  
Old 25th May 2017, 09:08 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Due to the game tonight teams have only been named for tonights game so far. Generally team announcements change the odds the most and as there's no bet on tonights game i'll post the rest of the rounds bets tomorrow.
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  #24  
Old 25th May 2017, 09:37 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Due to the game tonight teams have only been named for tonights game so far. Generally team announcements change the odds the most and as there's no bet on tonights game i'll post the rest of the rounds bets tomorrow.


Been following this thread with great interest Eva. Are you able to post your take on tonite's game?

Cheers LG
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  #25  
Old 25th May 2017, 11:14 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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After being put under the microscope the two weeks prior for being soft and not tackling enough, Geelong set a club record last week for tackles in a game. It was postured that after the game dangerfield and selwood hugged enjoying the win but almost instantly basically said to each other lets use this to get our season back on track and bring this every week. In addition to this they get to play at home for the 2nd week running and for the 2nd time this year infront of a crowd that will be 99% going for geelong and on a thursday night fixture that will be cold and loud infront of their home crowd.

Flip over the Port Adelaide and whilst they are coming off a big win vs Gold Coast its a bit hard to draw too much from it because it was in China at a ground nobody has played at before and it was 2 weeks ago (given the bye). In recent times teams haven't fared that well coming off the bye and think i saw a stat that said they win about 35% of the time when the odds expect them to win 42% of those games - not a vital stat but interesting still. In addition to this they are missing Wingard who has been in good form this year with no big outs for the Cats.

I'd say playing in geelong is one of the harder grounds to travel to along with SCG, Adelaide Oval and Perth. Plus besides Sydney, port haven't really beaten any standout competition.

Taking my system approach away from it if I was going to bet on this game i'd suggest (depending on how risky you want to go), Geelong to win, Geelong at the line (-5.5) or Geelong 1-39. Any or all 3 of those options would be my personal thinking/preference for this game.
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  #26  
Old 25th May 2017, 05:07 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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I have it as an 89-all draw.

Using another method: sum the teams using the AFL Official Player Ratings and they also work out exactly the same. Add a home field advantage to Geelong and they win by 18 (so perhaps 98-80?)
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  #27  
Old 26th May 2017, 09:14 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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You almost got your draw walkermac. 2/3 of my suggested bets hit, was only the line that missed for Geelong although I got pretty lucky with dangerfield only just kicking the winning goal with a minute to go.

On to the bets for the round and I have minimal confidence in the bets this round, this might be where we start to revert to the mean a little. We're pretty much on most of the big underdogs of the round so if only one of them can hit it will cover a lot of bets but i'm certainly not beaming with confidence. There's every chance most of the line bets will cover though.

Another interesting thing is north melbourne are once again a significant bet. There must be something about their method of playing from a statistical sense that favors them in my system. They've been a bet for a number of weeks now but that also makes sense as they've been in a position to win almost every game they've been involved in this year.

Round 10 bets:
Hawthorn 1.0x
St Kilda 2.5x
Gold Coast 1.0x
Richmond 2.5x
Fremantle 1.0x
Brisbane 1.0x
North Melbourne 2.5x
West Coast 2.5x

If I had to pick ones I'm most confident in it would probably be West Coast, North Melb and maybe gold coast at the line. If anyone wanted to have a crack at a multi maybe try West Coast line, North Melb win, Gold Coast line for odds of about $5.

Happy punting
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  #28  
Old 26th May 2017, 10:46 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
After being put under the microscope the two weeks prior for being soft and not tackling enough, Geelong set a club record last week for tackles in a game. It was postured that after the game dangerfield and selwood hugged enjoying the win but almost instantly basically said to each other lets use this to get our season back on track and bring this every week. In addition to this they get to play at home for the 2nd week running and for the 2nd time this year infront of a crowd that will be 99% going for geelong and on a thursday night fixture that will be cold and loud infront of their home crowd.

Flip over the Port Adelaide and whilst they are coming off a big win vs Gold Coast its a bit hard to draw too much from it because it was in China at a ground nobody has played at before and it was 2 weeks ago (given the bye). In recent times teams haven't fared that well coming off the bye and think i saw a stat that said they win about 35% of the time when the odds expect them to win 42% of those games - not a vital stat but interesting still. In addition to this they are missing Wingard who has been in good form this year with no big outs for the Cats.

I'd say playing in geelong is one of the harder grounds to travel to along with SCG, Adelaide Oval and Perth. Plus besides Sydney, port haven't really beaten any standout competition.

Taking my system approach away from it if I was going to bet on this game i'd suggest (depending on how risky you want to go), Geelong to win, Geelong at the line (-5.5) or Geelong 1-39. Any or all 3 of those options would be my personal thinking/preference for this game.


Brilliant post mate. Thanks for putting the time in. Can you explain how 'at the line' works again using Geelong (-5.5) as an example? Something I have always struggled to get my head around.

Cheers LG
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  #29  
Old 26th May 2017, 02:26 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Basically its a handicap that the bookmaker believes turns the match into a 50/50 game. So for instance say you bet on Geelong -5.5, at the end of the game you simply take 5.5 points from their score and if they are still the winner you would've won your bet on Geelong at the line.

Conversely if you bet on Port Adelaide at the line (+5.5) then you add 5.5 to their score at the end of the game and if they are then the winners, you win your bet on PA at the line.

Using last night as an example:

Geelong at the line -5.5 / Score was 81-79 and becomes 75.5-79 / losing bet as PA now winners
PA at the line +5.5 / Score was 81-79 and becomes 81-84.5 / winning bet as PA now winners

Hope that makes sense. Happy to clarify further if you have other queries. You basically need a 52% win strike rate on line bets to break even due to the $1.92 odds almost all bookies give on line bets. On forums i've read for the major american sports they suggest that hitting 55-60% over the long term is exceptional and 60%+ over the long term is almost unthinkable.
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  #30  
Old 26th May 2017, 02:49 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Thanks heaps mate. 100% clarity on this one now. Also bodes well as a pretty good indicator of where the final margin /range will lie i.e. better than mug punter guesswork.. helpful for footy tips!!

Cheers LG
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Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 26th May 2017 at 02:53 PM.
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