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  #11  
Old 17th November 2017, 11:12 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike367
Okay, now try not to laugh too hard......sigh.

I sent me crystal ball off to Holland for a bit of specialist work. As you can guess it came back speaking Dutch!

Moonee Valley tonight,

Dutch these:

R1 # 5,10,12
R2# 2,7,9
R3# none
R4# 3,7, but I wouldn't
R5# 2,9,12
R6# 8,10,11
R7# 1,11,12,14
R8# 5,7,10

This is just a trial and I haven't checked the odd, so may not be able to dutch all of them to profit.

I'm only having a very small amount on them.

Cheers,

Mike.

Were they to lay? Not one winner there.

Your crystal ball really needs a bit of a cut and polish.
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  #12  
Old 18th November 2017, 11:03 AM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Were they to lay? Not one winner there.

Your crystal ball really needs a bit of a cut and polish.


Hahaha yes you'd have more success laying them and probably the selections below also.

I'll try dutching these, not putting any money down on em though.

Sandown

R3 # 2,4,7

R5 # 2,3,6

R8 # 1,3,5,9

R10 # 3,5,10,12

Cheers,

Mike.
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  #13  
Old 18th November 2017, 07:46 PM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike367
Hahaha yes you'd have more success laying them and probably the selections below also.

I'll try dutching these, not putting any money down on em though.

Sandown

R3 # 2,4,7

R5 # 2,3,6

R8 # 1,3,5,9

R10 # 3,5,10,12

Cheers,

Mike.


Success.....well sort of, I forgot to record race 9. If I had I'd have won 3 from 5 and been in profit!

I might give it a dry run tomorrow.

Cheers,
Mike.
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  #14  
Old 25th November 2017, 11:57 AM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Arghh I need a time machine not a crystal ball.......

Ballarat R1 # 4 Royal Fashion Looks a very good LAY bet to me!

Cheers

Mike.
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  #15  
Old 25th November 2017, 12:13 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike367
Arghh I need a time machine not a crystal ball.......

Ballarat R1 # 4 Royal Fashion Looks a very good LAY bet to me!

Cheers

Mike.


I disagree as I think the odds are about right. Anything over $4.00 its a great bet. Anything under $3.00 its a good lay.
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  #16  
Old 26th November 2017, 12:28 PM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I disagree as I think the odds are about right. Anything over $4.00 its a great bet. Anything under $3.00 its a good lay.

Hi UB

I'm not quite sure I follow your meaning. You're saying over $4 is a great back or lay bet?

I thought is was a good lay bet as I simply didn't think it would win. Which it didn't, ran a close second though.

Cheers,
Mike.
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  #17  
Old 26th November 2017, 12:52 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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This is where perceived value comes into play Mike.
I know exactly where UB is coming from.
I'll always remember the day when Dominic Beirne (leading bookie at the time) declared on the radio that such and such was the lay of the day. Many other bookies were disgruntled when he went round the ring backing it because it had drifted to 4/1, and duly won. His point was that @ 6/4 it was a lay but @ 4/1 it was a great bet.
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  #18  
Old 26th November 2017, 04:09 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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As per what mark said.

The only lay which I take regardless of price is one which I give absolutely no chance to. ie less then 0.01% chance.

Price is a massive factor in knowing whether a selection is a lay or a bet. So I was saying at $4 it would be worth betting. Below $3.00 it would be worth laying.
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  #19  
Old 26th November 2017, 07:14 PM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
This is where perceived value comes into play Mike.
I know exactly where UB is coming from.
I'll always remember the day when Dominic Beirne (leading bookie at the time) declared on the radio that such and such was the lay of the day. Many other bookies were disgruntled when he went round the ring backing it because it had drifted to 4/1, and duly won. His point was that @ 6/4 it was a lay but @ 4/1 it was a great bet.


Thanks Mark
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  #20  
Old 26th November 2017, 07:35 PM
Mike367 Mike367 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
As per what mark said.

The only lay which I take regardless of price is one which I give absolutely no chance to. ie less then 0.01% chance.

Price is a massive factor in knowing whether a selection is a lay or a bet. So I was saying at $4 it would be worth betting. Below $3.00 it would be worth laying.


I think price is a factor only to lay the selection or not. I wont lay a horse at the same odds you do, I don't a large enough bank for one and I'm wary of accidents.
When I've chosen a runner that I believe can't win the price won't make me change my mind and back it.
Why would I if I don't think it can win in the first place?

Or is price the first thing you look at?

Cheers,
Mike.
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