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  #11  
Old 25th November 2017, 10:51 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Although I am extremely disciplined, sometimes overly, I find I work the opposite way. Once I find an advantage, common sense, not greed takes over, and I mine it for all I can.


I agree Mark, you have to milk an advantage for as much as you can for as long as you can, if it's proven. Sure as anything, legislation or some other rule or charge will come into effect and you'll lose it. I've been through this many times and have had to alter my methods because of changes in the betting rules.
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  #12  
Old 3rd December 2017, 12:33 PM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I have spent the last 10 years playing with vba and excèl and can honestly say i don't understand all that much but can make it do what i want, it does have limitations or maye they are mine, i have thought about learning python as i have heard it is the easiest, jusþ havent brought myself to sit and find the best videos.


Having seen some of your Excel/VBA work Shaun, I think you would quite like and be rather good at Python.

I'm an engineer by trade and hate programming. However I was able to teach myself Python over the last 18 months. Over the last 5 years I've dabbled with VBA and certainly have not created anything near the complexity of your race consensus rating workbook.
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  #13  
Old 3rd December 2017, 12:42 PM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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To the OP, I agree with your sentiments. My personal rule of thumb is target lots of small percentage profits because it's a long-term game. It is easy to get sucked into looking for huge win, I see a lots of my colleagues falling into that trap. The worst thing that happens for them is that their long shots pay off once in a blue moon which in their minds gives their methods credence. These are the same people that also do not stick to a strategy let alone keep records of their betting!
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  #14  
Old 3rd December 2017, 08:13 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Playlife
The worst thing that happens for them is that their long shots pay off once in a blue moon which in their minds gives their methods credence. These are the same people that also do not stick to a strategy let alone keep records of their betting!


Two things, 1) how do you ride out a horrendous losing run?, and 2) how do you get enough money on?
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  #15  
Old 5th December 2017, 05:51 PM
Playlife Playlife is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
Two things, 1) how do you ride out a horrendous losing run?, and 2) how do you get enough money on?


I'm a small time player and more interested in creating prediction models and systems than actually making money (I do prediction modelling as a day-time job in aircraft structures, not horse racing!). Henceforth I don't bet on long-shots (without some very good justification).

So to answer your two questions from my viewpoint:

1. Sometimes you can't. To attempt to mitigate, a horrendous losing run should be factored into your initial bank size or risk profile. My risk appetite is very small so I find that making 0.5% to be tedious since I am not prepared to lose it all.
Each prediction model and staking plan will have different results that are dependant on the actual results so using historical data is very limited in verifying your new models because they are not necessarily representative of future data. It's always the anomaly that kills you, and in aircraft, literally!

2. I don't, unfortunately, hence my day job! If anyone can make a living on a system then I truly commend them.

My father used to be involved in the horse racing industry back in the 1970/80s and the number of stories he has centring around corruption is mind blowing. I can only imagine it is worse these days.
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  #16  
Old 5th December 2017, 10:26 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Playlife
Each prediction model and staking plan will have different results that are dependant on the actual results so using historical data is very limited in verifying your new models because they are not necessarily representative of future data.


Yes, using historical data is limiting, however, it can be representative of future data if nothing has changed.

Last edited by Snert : 5th December 2017 at 10:32 PM.
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  #17  
Old 23rd December 2017, 09:40 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
Two things, 1) how do you ride out a horrendous losing run?, and 2) how do you get enough money on?


1) avoid systems with long losing runs (more than a duration of 7-14 days of being in the red or dropping by too large a percentage). Duration of time in the red is as important to me as the amount lost. Probably more important as you can easily adjust your staking to minimise the amount lost.

2) I've rarely have issue getting money on. I was doing 5K bets all day today without an issue. I would say unless you are betting more than 10K then this is not a problem you need to worry about.
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  #18  
Old 31st December 2017, 08:26 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Don't know a more appropriate thread to pose this riddle.

Why aren't there more people investing in automated systems to take a slice of the pie. After all there must be thousands of elite systems and programming people around the world, the same one's with skills who can hack into the Defense Dept in USA, develop space programs and so on.

Why???

I'll give this a week or so if anyone's interested then whack my theory on the table ..... for what it's worth.
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  #19  
Old 31st December 2017, 08:28 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
Don't know a more appropriate thread to pose this riddle.

Why aren't there more people investing in automated systems to take a slice of the pie. After all there must be thousands of elite systems and programming people around the world, the same one's with skills who can hack into the Defense Dept in USA, develop space programs and so on.

Why???

I'll give this a week or so if anyone's interested then whack my theory on the table ..... for what it's worth.


Pretty simple. When it comes down to it the biggest place to gamble is the stock market. It draws a lot of the same type of people.

The stock market is dominated by automated trading.
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  #20  
Old 31st December 2017, 10:14 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Unless you have an edge automation is just a word, you don't need to be automated to be a winner, but i will say it makes life easier.
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