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  #11  
Old 11th December 2017, 03:20 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Yes, I had a great system for Betfair which worked for ages, but then the market caught on. My mistake was going on the Betfair forums and entering into a debate.
Horseracing is a unique medium than any other type of research, whether it be sports, engineering, accounting, insurance, banking etc.
There are so many facets to it, that you need something nobody else has.
More than 30% of favourites win, it's more like somewhere between 32 and 33%, but that figure includes $6.00 favourites and $1.04 favourites.
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  #12  
Old 12th December 2017, 09:53 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
There are so many facets to it, that you need something nobody else has.


I agree 100%.

There must be 1,000's of punters out there whose selection methods overlap mine, but do they stick with it when their method has a run of outs. And as I posed the question before, how do you know when your system has failed?

Not that we could ever substantiate this, but I'd bet that there are systems that have been successful for 100 years! Some things just don't change.

I have a system that's won every year for the past 17 years. No-one in their right mind would back it, it doesn't throw up a lot of selections, it takes two minutes to scan the paper for the selections. Will it fall over? - It has to. When it does, will it make a comeback? - It has to. You couldn't possibly make a living off this system, it would be financial suicide. There are four rules ..... that's it. This is further proof to me that somethings just don't change regardless of all the changes that occur in horseracing.

Anyone else wan't to have a crack at "how do you know when your system has failed (I'm talking terminal failure here)". I've got half an answer lol
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  #13  
Old 12th December 2017, 06:51 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Let's say the TAB takes out 15% to say 18%, it's not critical for this argument. So, for every dollar gambled the TAB returns just over 80%. Simple maths says that to show a POT of 20% you need to find an edge in the magnitude of 50% over the average TAB gambler.

I'd suggest that there's very few who can do that. Hundreds of thousands of gamblers on the horses and very few who profit on a regular basis, very few indeed.

No wonder some are sceptical about systems that purport to show a 50% POT, that's almost 100% better than the average gambler!

Swarm Intelligence?

Last edited by Snert : 12th December 2017 at 06:54 PM.
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  #14  
Old 12th December 2017, 10:28 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Snert, I don't think many can sustain a 20% POT over a long period of time or a large number of bets just win or place betting. In some exotic bets the TAB takeout is less, in others a lot more.
So, just like the pokies, the more you turnover, the more you lose, unless you find a realistic edge.
I used to have a pokies system (don't laugh), based on the return to the punter would be there, not in the long term, but to entice them to gamble more. I was driving through Violet Town on the way to a wedding, and stopped at a pub for a cool ale. There were four pokies there, I put $1 in each machine and bet maximum lines and bet which would have been the $1.
I won $100, the locals were stunned, so was the barman
I've done the same at various venues, while some people were clinging to the screen, rubbing the screen, putting reserved signs on and doing masses of dosh. I just put $1 in each machine and walk away to the next and stop when in front. Once I won $7,500 doing this, they pulled out the machine that week . I don't do it now, and don't recommend anyone else tries it, because the house edge is too great. I just had the idea the shorter amount of time one plays each machine, the luckier you get. I once saw a little old lady on a bus tour from a retirement home win a five figure sum at Crown Casino with one spin. Needless to say there were many curse words from the regulars. I don't go to Crown anymore can't stand the place, other than for drinks, food or an entertainment event.
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  #15  
Old 13th December 2017, 01:14 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Snert, I can tell you with absolute certainty that the figure looking for is around 4% POT, any that have achieved more than that are already living the live on a private island probably in the Caribbean somewhere!!
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  #16  
Old 13th December 2017, 01:20 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Chrome, your post made me laugh, my Brother is married to one of those "midas" guys,.... we had a night out at the local casino, me and Alan lost our few quid as did Als' father in law ( I can tell you I had a great smirk on my face, like for once the ************** didn't win) on the way out he said hang on I'll just put my last 2 quid in this pokie and proceeded to collect the 500 quid jackpot,./......... there is just no way of explaining it
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  #17  
Old 13th December 2017, 09:52 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Great posts Chrome Prince and Partypooper. BTW CP, your method is the way I play the pokies too and your winnings have been balanced out by my (very rare) exploits lol
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  #18  
Old 13th December 2017, 12:08 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Having regularly made 2-3 % p/a, I'm rejoicing this year at my current 3.35% level, and on greater turnover than in past years. All this despite posting on here years ago pretty much exactly what I do.
What am I doing different??,.....nothing. More bolters seem to have won the bigger races this year, going all the way back to Magic Millions day.
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  #19  
Old 13th December 2017, 12:34 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Having regularly made 2-3 % p/a, I'm rejoicing this year at my current 3.35% level, and on greater turnover than in past years. All this despite posting on here years ago pretty much exactly what I do.
What am I doing different??,.....nothing. More bolters seem to have won the bigger races this year, going all the way back to Magic Millions day.


Yep, funny you should mention that Mark.
I was just looking at the Group 1 winners for the Spring season and the average price is double figures. It's usually that way unless you have a Black Caviar or a Winx running around. I've noticed over the years The Oaks hot pot usually fails, that's one race you can really get your teeth into!
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 302,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/08/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #20  
Old 13th December 2017, 01:07 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I was just looking at the I've noticed over the years The Oaks hot pot usually fails, that's one race you can really get your teeth into!


Yes, last year's Oaks was my best result in a long, long time.
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