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  #11  
Old 29th November 2017, 03:27 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Haha see walkermac this is where I just can't imagine the take up. Using the betting example, the general public want simplicity and if you have to explain to someone about their betting wallet not only being in aussie dollars but being in betcoins where the value of those coins can also fluctuate i'd say it just gets too convoluted for joe blow who wants a simple bet
Somewhat agree....but there was a thread a few weeks back where people were bemoaning the law change where they could no longer bet on the NZ tab (in NZ dollars, obviously) unless they were actually in NZ. And don't people wager on the UK betfair exchange (in pounds)? If there's an advantage to betting someplace (and here it would be the far lower vig, presuming there is the same liquidity of betfair) there will be people who pursue it. I don't know that the occasional punter would be your market for the Augur product, it would surely be the whales and traders that feel like Betfair no longer suits.

To my mind, it definitely makes far more sense to operate entirely in bitcoin or another popular crypto. It's popular worldwide and you don't have to worry about converting someone's US dollar bet to match someone's Euro lay, or have umpteen wallets with different currencies, etc. There have been bitcoin debit cards for years (works wherever VISA is accepted) so in theory you wouldn't even have to withdraw funds from your betting account to use them in the 'real world'.

The only other way that makes even a little sense (though it would limit your market to a singular currency's territory) is that the operator has a private and pegged cryptocoin where people have no idea it's even being used. That is, you deposit $1000 of Australia dollars and it says your account has a balance of "$1000" but the operator holds your AUD in escrow while you use "$1000" of betcoin (i.e. the exchange rate between AUD and betcoin is 1:1). When you want to withdraw from your account, the operator sends AUD to your bank and debits your betting account an equivalent number of betcoins. The end user doesn't even know that betcoins exist but the operator can use the blockchain, smart contracts, etc. Of course that makes betcoins pretty useless outside of that environment but it's not like they would cost you anything to create either (a lot of this stuff is open source, else there's a platform called Waves where you can setup your own crypto).

...I won't be throwing $50 Augur's way (but make your own investment decisions, readers )


Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
It all just seems super complex for me at the moment and I prefer to know exactly what I'm investing in or betting with. I'd hazard a guess that 90%+ of general public cryptocurrency 'investors' actually wouldn't have a clue how bitcoin, mining, blockchain or the transactions actually work. Thats a big red flag for me when you've got a market hyperdrived by speculation and fad mentality with minimal knowledge on what they are actually investing within. I mean just look at the GFC or last tech bust - Markets hyperdrived by speculative purchasing of investments that the investors essentially knew nothing about in terms of how it worked and when that tipping point eventually comes which it almost always does it can be quite devastating unless you're fortunate enough to get out at the perfect (lucky) time.
Or you're prepared to hold on through the market crash/correction because the product is so good. There were winners during the dotcom crash and they weren't just the ones who got out before it imploded. Those who were smart/lucky enough and picked 'n' sticked could do alright:


That little bump at the start of the graph is the dotcom crash!
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  #12  
Old 29th November 2017, 08:16 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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I'm getting a little off topic now and happy to take it to a new thread if walkermac or mods want me to but anyhow i'll post it and move it if people wish. Totally agree that buy and hold is the best approach when confident in your investments and particularly not succumbing to fear in a crash as typically thats the better time to buy long term. But you can't really compare what I'm saying about crypto to a singular tech stock from the tech crash that everyone knows has been successful.

If you look at the chart on google for the Dow Jones US Tech Index (INDEXDJX:.DJUSTC) you'll see that from basically the start of the year 2000 to today the overall return is a meager 35.46% (1.80% annualized return). Compare that to just US inflation which had a return of 42.15% over the same 17 year period (2.09% annualized return). Thats without even looking at cash, fixed interest, property, aus shares or international shares that i'm almost certain all of which performed a lot better.

If you're lucky enough in this crypto phase moving forward from now (forget the returns on bitcoin and co so far) to make the selection on thousands of crypto's that turn out to be the replication of Microsoft or Amazon then I'll be the first to congratulate you particularly if you hold on through what I believe (it may not happen) is almost an inevitable crash at some stage. Note with amazon if you bought in at the peak it took 10 years to even get back to break even and thats ignoring inflation etc.

I know I sound overly negative but I read an article tonight that also resonates with me and is similar with crypto and the tech boom and bust. Fixed Interest (bonds etc), Property and Shares have tangible asset backing that generate a rate of return, for example shares are companies with earnings and properties are hard assets that people rent etc. Crypto (similar to gold and the old tech boom and bust) essentially has no underlying asset backing thats generating a rate of return or providing an ongoing return. The only return (as far as I can see) is based on the speculation and hope that you purchase today at x and that the price will be driven up by further speculation to a point that you can sell it for more at y to someone else looking to ride the same wave.

There will no doubt be winners out of crypto, but like all markets (shares, property, gambling) there has to be someone on the other side of the transaction that is at that time essentially becoming the loser.

Anyhow I probably will refrain from replying too much more to this thread as I've made my view pretty obvious and don't want to get into a pro crypto vs anti crypto debate. We all have our views and thats fine, will certainly be interesting/exciting to see how things play out with crypto over 1,3 and 5 year periods when possibly the hysteria dies down etc.
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  #13  
Old 30th November 2017, 01:16 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
I'm getting a little off topic now and happy to take it to a new thread if walkermac or mods want me to but anyhow i'll post it and move it if people wish
Nope, valuable post and relevant to the discussion of the blockchain-based bookie. There's two ways you can become involved with it: you punt on their platform or you buy their coin and hope to ride such a wave that the $20 of betting credits you purchase now is worth $20000 betting credits at sometime in the future. We both agree that that's pretty unlikely from our differing viewpoints.

I know that the Amazon chart I posted is not in the least bit representational of the average dotcom that launched in the late 90s, nor that one would have had much hope of identifying it as a winner prior to the fact. It was just to demonstrate that there were worldchanging ideas that would ultimately be supremely valued amongst all the chaff.

There are certainly safer ways to earn some money. If I ever do get around to throwing some at it, it will likely be for chump change, in tech that interests me and I'll get years of enjoyment of watching the price move, with no expectation of earning anything out of it.
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  #14  
Old 30th November 2017, 05:36 AM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Fiat money or not, at least you have a gov.guarantee behind it.
Sure governments fail from time to time, but what backs up cryptocurrency?
Only greed as far as I can see. Followed it from the start and am still a sceptic.
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  #15  
Old 30th November 2017, 08:26 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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walkermac, definitely agree that throwing a little money at it could be fun to play with and/or watch over the coming years. I'm super intrigued to see where all this crypto stuff ends up. In the years so far that i've been involved in finance i've never seen an investment craze take over like this, its insane the amount of coverage its got across all platforms (even tv media/news). I'm also a gamer and the way it has grabbed that community as well given they are already tech people to begin with is pretty amazing to watch as well.

Appreciate the discussion walkermac its been a good one. If a low cost exchange style operation is something that comes out of this and is healthy to use i'd be all for it, will be interesting to see whats happened if we revisit this thread in months or years.
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  #16  
Old 30th November 2017, 10:10 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
I know I sound overly negative but I read an article tonight that also resonates with me and is similar with crypto and the tech boom and bust. Fixed Interest (bonds etc), Property and Shares have tangible asset backing that generate a rate of return, for example shares are companies with earnings and properties are hard assets that people rent etc. Crypto (similar to gold and the old tech boom and bust) essentially has no underlying asset backing thats generating a rate of return or providing an ongoing return. The only return (as far as I can see) is based on the speculation and hope that you purchase today at x and that the price will be driven up by further speculation to a point that you can sell it for more at y to someone else looking to ride the same wave.


I agree totally.
There is nothing behind crypto currency other than supply and demand, the demand is from (in my opinion) those trying to get rich. The bubble has to burst, it has no Government backing, nor no tangible value other than what people are prepared to pay. The same happened with the dot com boom and bust, the companies with tangible assets and a solid customer base and business brand, still do well today, however, the rest sank like the Titanic. Reminds me a bit like Amway, Poseidon and Golden Airplanes!
One has to wonder when you get over 20 Bitcoin spam emails a day.
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  #17  
Old 30th November 2017, 10:51 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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CP, the following financial mindset chart reminds me a lot of where crypto sits at the moment:



I'd say we're somewhere around the excitement/thrill stage at the moment. Nobody in their right mind can predict or tell you how long this stage will last (and anyone that does is kidding themselves) but its what happens after the euphoria stage that i'm interested in spectating when it comes to Crypto. I don't enjoy seeing people lose money but there will be some form of vindication for my negative stance when this occurs, and its not an 'if' it occurs, all financial investments go through this cycle to varying degrees, its just a matter of when it occurs.

I also wonder how the crypto trading houses/websites will handle the huge level of trade requests that will flow in when it comes to actually selling rather than buying. I'm sure at the moment its all rainbows and roses but on the way down I do wonder how difficult people will find it to get out.
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  #18  
Old 30th November 2017, 05:06 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Default It's only just begun....

A new strain of cryptomining scripts that work through browsers continue their activity through a pop-under window even after a user shuts their browser, researchers have found.
Many websites have been outed for embedding such scripts in order to use the CPU and GPU power of users to mine for cryptocurrencies.
Security company Malwarebytes said in a blog post that the new technique had been spotted in tests that it had carried out using Google's Chrome browser running on Windows.
Researcher Jérôme Segura said he had observed the following:

"A user visits a website, which silently loads cryptomining code;**CPU activity rises but is not maxed out; the user leaves the site and closes the Chrome window;**CPU activity remains higher than normal as cryptomining continues."

He said that although the visible browser windows were closed, there was a hidden window that remained open.
"This is due to a pop-under which is sized to fit right under the taskbar and hides behind the clock," he added.
Segura said that more technical users would be able to spot the presence of the pop-under window by running Windows Task Manager and terminating any browser processes that were still running.
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  #19  
Old 2nd December 2017, 07:52 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here's another blockchain-backed, cryptocurrency operated lottery/betting platform: Startima.

Works a little differently than Augur. Lotteries and betting markets can only be started by token holders. The markets can be in any fiat currency and can be participated in by anyone. It seems like you could set up a horse race as a market, certainly an either/or market, but they don't even have demo software developed yet!

20% of the funds raised in the ICO - Initial Coin Offering, for which each of the max 50 million coins will be priced at $USD1 - will be given to a lucky coin holder. If they happen to sell out, that's a $10million dollar prize. It's just opened and they've sold 100,000 so far. If they don't reach a minimum sale of 1 million tokens, the whole thing's off and everyone gets refunded.

The Startima token will then be an ongoing lottery ticket for drawing prizes from the platform revenue, once the pool reaches $1million. There will be a major prize draw from the fund and the remainder will be divided amongst token holders as a consolation prize (with respect to their holdings, so it's somewhat like a share dividend).

Revenue is through 2.5% commission on winnings from each lottery/market as well as from advertising.

Tokens not sold during the ICO will be destroyed. Anyone who subsequently wants to buy a token will have to do so through an exchange. Otherwise, holders can gift their own to others via a QR code (instead of a scratchie in your Christmas stocking).

You can also earn coins by participating in their bounty programme: advertising the ICO through different forums.

They estimate taking 20% of the existing market for online lotteries and betting. Apparently online lotteries accounted for $USD3.85 billion last year, more than online poker.

Here's the details on the ICO: http://cryptocentral.info/topic/197...etting-platform

Here's their website: https://startima.io/


Essentially, you get your money back, or you're paying for a ticket in a lottery that has one prize of at least $200k (for which there would be a one in a million chance). If the platform kicks off and people actually use it enough, then that ticket will be live for every subsequent draw of a $333k prize + an award of somewhere between 1.3c and 67c per coin you hold (it depends on how many are sold during the ICO).


I don't think it's for me, but it's interesting that several parties now have identified betting/gambling as a promising area to use blockchain in: you can't not pay out. I think as consumers become more aware off the protections that the blockchain can afford they'll start to demand the same features from the big players. It certainly could make their bonus bet offers more appealing: no fear of bookies finding some reason to dismiss your bet (not sure how often that's a problem, but I've certainly seen people complain of it)
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  #20  
Old 8th December 2017, 03:23 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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More cryptocurrency and betting news: from Sunday you can bet on the price of bitcoin.

The global currency futures market averages $100 billion dollars in daily trades. "Currency futures, also called forex futures or foreign exchange futures, are exchange-traded futures contracts to buy or sell a specified amount of a particular currency at a set price and date in the future".

Not my area at all and this may very well be entirely wrong, but I suppose that when the contract time is up and you sell the specified amount of currency for the specified price, if the market price has gone up even higher in the meantime, you lose (i.e. you agree to sell 100 dollarydoos for $USD1 each in a months' time. If a month later a dollarydoo is actually worth $USD2, the person on the other end of the contract is getting $USD200-worth of dollarydoos for $USD100).

This market has been in real world currencies but CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange - the world's largest options market) is opening it up to Bitcoin futures from Sunday. CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange & Chicago Board of Trade - the world leader in derivatives, including futures) will join in the following week.

There have been concerns expressed. Banks have said that it's all happening too quickly, without enough review, protections or oversight. South Korea has reportedly just banned bitcoin futures.

Bitcoin has seen far greater fluctations than fiat currencies typically undergo. At least one broker is minimising their risks by charging more per contract ($5 vs $0.25) and only allowing long contracts. That is, that the price will go up some amount, not down - so that everyone involved on their side has an interest in the continued success of the market as a whole (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/07/int...in-futures.html). Presumably however, someone somewhere else must be taking on the other side of the contract and the risk that that entails.

That article also indicates that some clearing houses are protecting themselves by ensuring that they hold far greater margins than normal. From my googling, a clearing house is the man-in-the-middle of any contract: they ensure that the terms are met by being one half of every trade (so instead of A directly dealing with B, our clearing house plays the role of B in a trade with A, and the role of A in a trade with B; if either A or B defaults, then it doesn't affect the market as the clearing house has covered them). At the end of every trading day they hold a percentage (margin) of what each party would owe were all their contracts to activate. It would be much safer and more sensible if that percentage was 100, but it seems to be far, far, far lower. The article above indicates that their clearing house is taking the 'extraordinarily safe measure' of ensuring that 50% of the bet can be paid out. CBOE and CME have 30% and 35% margins respectively.

If the price rises or falls dramatically then there's a chance that the losing side of the deal won't be able to pay. They'll declare bankruptcy but the clearing house is still on the hook. If they're on enough hooks then they go bankrupt too.

To minimise this risk there'll be a limit to how many contracts can be held by any one person/body (for CME: max 5000 bitcoins-worth, i.e. just shy of $USD90mil in today's price). There will be various limits and trading halts on new contracts if the bitcoin price rises by 10-20% or more. It looks like the contracts will be for a month hence. All settlements are in USD, no bitcoins need be held by anyone.

There is no law that the clearing house has to separate their bitcoin futures business from their regular business. So when the bitcoin crash occurs it could potentially heavily impact every other market in the world.


Fun times.

There's a theory that Wall Street is presently pumping bitcoin in preparation to short it next week. They would sell at the peak to those with FOMO and be first to the exit. Miners (who are now mostly consolidated) block that exit in a couple of weeks' time once the FOMO money stops coming in and they prioritise their own transactions out of bitcoin, ahead of everyone else's. Wall Street, who sold most of their bitcoins near to the peak, also win on their futures bets (which get paid in USD, not now-worthless bitcoin) and scare everyone away from crypto for the next few years and back to the markets that they control.

Don't like that conspiracy theory? How about the one where the biggest crypto exchange has essentially been printing their own money to buy bitcoin and are crossing their fingers that their ponzi scheme works before they're found out (if they need to delay, expect them to announce another hack and a loss of thousands of bitcoins soon). Add the two together and it's a perfect storm.

Stick with horses!

The tech is still good and will be extremely widely used (e.g. the Australian Stock Exchange is implementing a blockchain-based solution to their platform soon) but this speculation bubble is only doing favours to the people who manage to time their exit right....
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