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  #21  
Old 31st December 2017, 05:17 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Mind if i ask are you dutching selections? sounds like the staking is similar to your other thread.
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  #22  
Old 31st December 2017, 08:09 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Time to give up the day job UB, no doubt about that! took me 25 years to turn a profit, well,....... consistently that is


I wish. Don't think my wife would approve of that. Still it could be a very good side income just betting on Saturdays and Sundays.

Quote:
Mind if i ask are you dutching selections? sounds like the staking is similar to your other thread.


Yes dutching selections or laying those not selected depending on how many runners there are selected. If I am only backing 4 horses in a 10 horse field its easier to back them. If I am backing 8 horses in a 10 horse field then I lay the other 2.

Staking is level stakes only.

Quote:
nice work


thanks.

Last edited by UselessBettor : 31st December 2017 at 08:12 AM.
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  #23  
Old 31st December 2017, 01:41 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Finished the form for the first 5 meetings and been on a few races already.

So far I have found chances in 20 races out of a possible 54 races.

I still have the two late meetings to do.

Three of those races have already run and all have been profitable.
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  #24  
Old 31st December 2017, 02:39 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I wish. Don't think my wife would approve of that.


Please tell us this is a joke. You're making all that dosh and still have to work?
Seems I'm not nearly as cautious as I thought. Not making anywhere near what you are but left work before I was making a liveable wage just to sharpen the mind.
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  #25  
Old 31st December 2017, 03:55 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Please tell us this is a joke. You're making all that dosh and still have to work?
Seems I'm not nearly as cautious as I thought. Not making anywhere near what you are but left work before I was making a liveable wage just to sharpen the mind.


Mark,

I only just gave this a real go the last 8 days. Yes I am doing really well but I wouldn't want to decide it all on 8 days worth of results. I am ultra conservative and I think that really helps my punting but I also think it hinders my bankroll growth as I bet a very small percentage.

On a side note, my system bets do really well but I don't need to be around for those. They make money whether I am here, out doing something or asleep in bed. So in those cases I can still work and its just money to make life sweeter.

The results have given me something serious to think about though. Based on the results I think I will do this a few days a week and continue to see how it goes for a couple of months. I can always take a month off work and see how that month goes before making any life changing decisions.

As far as the dollar amount, I am in a very well paying position so giving up that regular income is not always an easy thing to do.

Its been an eye opener the last week though and I am very happy with the results.
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  #26  
Old 31st December 2017, 08:18 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Results:
Week 1: $1770 Profit
Day 8: $2460 Profit
Day 9: $1570 Profit

Total Profit : $5800

Another good day after several hours of handicapping.
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  #27  
Old 1st January 2018, 12:36 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I am hoping to start the new year with a profit so spent this morning handicapping the races for today. I still need to do Ascot but I can do that later.

I will be on 19 races at the moment. Starting with Inverall Race 1 and finishing with Murray Bridge Race 7. Target for today is $700 profit.

I'll pop back between races and write a post on some of the handicapping concepts which I have found useful so far.
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  #28  
Old 1st January 2018, 01:46 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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So I thought I would put up some information on what I am finding useful to just aid anyone who decides to do some handicapping.

1. GOOD vs SOFT vs HEAVY is extremely important. I am amazed at how many horses don't run well on certain wet tracks (or vice versa). You see horses running in a soft track today with form of 5 races 0 wins 0 places and they are in the top 3 chances. Yet a horse with form of 5 races 3 wins is priced $20+. Checking the tracks they have been racing on recently is also important. If today's track is good and all their recent form is on heavy or soft then you have to look for their last few races on Good before making a decision.

2. Odds help but are generally wrong early. Late odds are more helpful I use the odds to narrow down the chances early but always look at all the horses. The bookie odds are generally ok but can be out on at least 1 or 2 horses almost every race. These are not always easy to see. I find checking the odds before the races helps confirm my chances selections. If the odds are wildly out of sync with what I expect (say I expect the horse to be $10 and its running around at $50+ then I question the selection and the race. In some cases I will pull out of the race as it means I have read the race wrong.

3. Class is important. I measure class by the prizemoney competed for where the horse has ran acceptably. I don't have any hard rules and its a bit of an art form reading the class of a horse but if I see a horse has run 6th last start within 4 lengths of the winner in a 40K race and its competing against horses which have run in 20K races and won then I would still include that horse which ran 6th last start. I try and pick the prize money range a horse should be competing in based on the last runs and then see which horses are in a competitive class range. This helps eliminate chances which are in a class which is just too hard for them.

4. Field sizes matter. Firstly they matter as ore horses mean the odds will be better on your selections. It also means there are going to be a lot of horses just making up the numbers which can be quickly eliminated. Also some horses perform better in larger or smaller fields.

5. Barriers are VERY important. . I know wide barriers increase the odds but barriers can play a very important factor in a race. You need to compare the running style to the barrier. You don't want horses who want to lead being in a very wide barrier (10+) unless they get across easily which is rare. You can also use it to eliminate chances quickly by checking horses in the wide barriers and how they have performed from there before. If its gone straight back and not run on then its an easy horse to drop from the list of chances.

6. Distance win% and place% are more important then career stats. I see so many horses which are just going around to get a run and get fit. You can tell when all their wins come from 2000m+ and they are in a 1200m race at odds of $50. They are not going to win. You want to be looking for horses with a win or at least good placing percentage at the distance. You should never strike off a horse which hasn't run at a distance though.

7. Barrier Trials are great in maidens with little exposed form only for races at or less than 1200m. If a horse has ran 7th in 4 barrier trials before its first start then you can generally assume it will perform badly in a sprint race. A win in a barrier trial should be given some credit especially in 1000m or less races.

8. Age matters Old horses perform poorly in sprints. But don't discount them in longer races (1600m+). I am sure its the same as us humans and they lose speed as they get older. I generally class a 7yo as too hold for sprints.

9. Recent 12 month form matters Recent form is more important then career form unless the recent form is in much harder classes. Generally you will see form of 18 races for 1 win in the last 2 months. Those hoses have very little chance of winning. But a horse which has 5 races 2 wins even though their career stats might be 18 races 2 wins is a much better chance and should be backed to win.


I would also suggest you go wider in the field and include half-chances rather than eliminate them as winning 90% of your races at smaller returns is much better for the mind then winning 50% at higher odds.

That's just some of my personal thoughts. Of course sometimes you just get it wrong and you are going to lose. That is racing.
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  #29  
Old 1st January 2018, 05:34 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Two more races which I an interested in at Ascot. I don't expect to make much from them but I'll still be working through them to get as much profit as possible for the day.
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  #30  
Old 1st January 2018, 07:38 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Ascot race 4-2 "I'm Feeling Lucky".....form figures 666 hee hee!


That horse had 50% distance winning strike rate.

I wasn't on that race as I could make a case for all of those horses winning.
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