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  #1  
Old 6th January 2018, 10:53 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Default Ratings 2018

Trying something out today. This is how I plan to do the ratings from now on.

I'm only listing the horses rated at 5.0 ($20) or better. These are the horses the ratings think have the best winning chance and are hopefully the best to include in exotics. I certainly can't guarantee that I haven't left out any winners, but the horses listed should be the best chances, with bold rated runners hopefully the best of them.

I'm also including a "VALUE" column. This price is simply a 50% overlay of the actual rated price. There won't be a huge number of runners that you can get these odds on, but as a rule, these are ones I like to look for... bold rated runners that I can get a 50% overlay on. You can use these new prices however you wish. It's up to you.

Jan 6:

GCST 6 - CLASS 6 PLATE 1400M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
33.0 . $3.00 . $4.50 . 16 CRUZE
18.0 . $5.60 . $8.40 . 12 DOUBT DEFYING
16.5 . $6.10 . $9.15 . 15 PLUCKY GIRL
11.0 . $9.10 . $13.65 . 14 PEGAPUS
9.0 . $11.10 . $16.65 . 8 COURTZA KING
8.0 . $12.50 . $18.75 . 3 DELIGHTFUL FEELING
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 9 DRUMBEAT'S CHOICE

RATING 1: 12 DOUBT DEFYING
RATING 2: 15 PLUCKY GIRL
RATING 3: 16 CRUZE *


GCST 7 - BM 90 HANDICAP 1800M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
30.0 . $3.30 . $4.95 . 2 FELTRE
24.0 . $4.20 . $6.30 . 8 AQUA VITE
13.5 . $7.40 . $11.10 . 1 CANTBUYBETTER
12.0 . $8.30 . $12.45 . 5 DON'T TELL MAMA
11.5 . $8.70 . $13.05 . 6 SLYDINI
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 9 COURT'S STAR
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 10 MYSTICAL RENEGADE

RATING 1: 2 FELTRE
RATING 2: 8 AQUA VITE
RATING 3: 2 FELTRE


GCST 8 - OPEN HANDICAP 1200M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
29.0 . $3.40 . $5.10 . 5 ZUMBELINA
19.5 . $5.10 . $7.65 . 2 QUATRONIC
16.0 . $6.30 . $9.45 . 4 MIGHTY LIKE
15.5 . $6.50 . $9.75 . 1 SIEGFRIED
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 13 RAIDO
8.5 . $11.80 . $17.70 . 7 BANDA SPICE
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 3 FLAMBOYER

RATING 1: 5 ZUMBELINA *
RATING 2: 5 ZUMBELINA *
RATING 3: 2 QUATRONIC


GCST 9 - NMW HANDICAP 1200M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
35.0 . $2.90 . $4.35 . 12 NILETTE
25.0 . $4.00 . $6.00 . 16 I'VE GOTTA NEL
13.5 . $7.40 . $11.10 . 9 PRUE'S ANGEL
12.5 . $8.00 . $12.00 . 14 DON'T DENY US
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 7 STAR STILETTO
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 8 BOLD SHOT
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 6 LIVE FAST

RATING 1: 12 NILETTE
RATING 2: 16 I'VE GOTTA NEL
RATING 3: 12 NILETTE


RAND 6 - BM 85 HANDICAP 1000M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
29.5 . $3.40 . $5.10 . 1 GUARD OF HONOUR
29.5 . $3.40 . $5.10 . 8 MY MAHER
18.5 . $5.40 . $8.10 . 6 DON'T TEASE ME
13.0 . $7.70 . $11.55 . 2 FICKLE FOLLY
10.0 . $10.00 . $15.00 . 10 LOVERBOY CHARLIE

RATING 1: 1 GUARD OF HONOUR *
RATING 2: 8 MY MAHER
RATING 3: 8 MY MAHER


RAND 7 - F&M BM 80 HANDICAP 1400M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
31.0 . $3.20 . $4.80 . 4 SIREN'S FURY
20.0 . $5.00 . $7.50 . 5 QUEEN MISTY
20.0 . $5.00 . $7.50 . 6 MOLLYFIED
11.0 . $9.10 . $13.65 . 3 OVERSTEP
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 2 LIVE TO DREAM
7.5 . $13.30 . $19.95 . 1 WAHNG WAH

RATING 1: 3 OVERSTEP
RATING 2: 5 QUEEN MISTY
RATING 3: 4 SIREN'S FURY


RAND 8 - BM 94 HANDICAP 1400M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
44.0 . $2.30 . $3.45 . 8 LANCIATO
32.0 . $3.10 . $4.65 . 5 NOIRE
8.0 . $12.50 . $18.75 . 9 RAIJINZ
7.5 . $13.30 . $19.95 . 1 COOLRING
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 3 SO WILLIE
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 4 SAVOUREUX

RATING 1: 8 LANCIATO *
RATING 2: 5 NOIRE
RATING 3: 8 LANCIATO


RAND 9 - C,G&E BM 80 HANDICAP 1400M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
28.5 . $3.50 . $5.25 . 11 MALAISE
22.5 . $4.40 . $6.60 . 3 LEVEL EIGHT
20.0 . $5.00 . $7.50 . 4 PIPELINE
20.0 . $5.00 . $7.50 . 2 SAMADOUBT
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 5 SIR BARB
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 7 FRANCESCO

RATING 1: 11 MALAISE
RATING 2: 11 MALAISE
RATING 3: 3 LEVEL EIGHT

Last edited by Sportz : 6th January 2018 at 10:55 AM.
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  #2  
Old 6th January 2018, 11:10 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Sportz,

Looks good.

Can you explain how you worked out the overlay prices ? There are lots of ways to do it (price vs chance). A worked example would be great.

I am assuming its just 50% of the price ?

Thanks.
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  #3  
Old 6th January 2018, 11:17 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Another way to do the overlay would be this:

33.0 . $3.00 . $4.50 . 16 CRUZE

This horse has a 1/3 chance = 33.33%.

I think overlays in the favs should be much lower then overlays in the longer shots.

If I was using the percentage chance instead of price and I wanted a 10% overlay I wouldn't add 30c to make it 3.30.

I could either add 10% chance to the horses price which would be 33.33-10 = 23.33% chance. 1/23.33 = $4.30 price.

or I could 33.33*0.90 = 29.99 = 1/29.99 = $3.33 as the new price.


I think it comes down to personal preference but I prefer the one which comes up with $4.30. I would also nogt use 10% and stick to 5%. If you do it this way you rule out all horses above $20 being bet on and any horses you do bet on are given a true 5% chance buffer.

I hope that makes sense.
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  #4  
Old 6th January 2018, 12:55 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Yeah, I thought of doing it similar to that, but in the end, just went with the simplest way which is just 50% more than the rated price.

I agree that you could be less strict with the favourites and maybe make them smaller overlays.
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  #5  
Old 6th January 2018, 02:42 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Thumbs down

Well, that's a good start. Not.
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  #6  
Old 6th January 2018, 04:49 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Lanciato was good.
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  #7  
Old 6th January 2018, 04:49 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Pinjarra quaddie...

PINJ 6 - BM 62+ HANDICAP 2000M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
27.0 . $3.70 . $5.55 . 6 QUEEN BEY
22.0 . $4.50 . $6.75 . 7 TOMMI TOOCAN
15.0 . $6.70 . $10.05 . 1 NO SAY IN IT
12.5 . $8.00 . $12.00 . 5 PRYING TOM
12.5 . $8.00 . $12.00 . 8 KIA ORA STAR
7.5 . $13.30 . $19.95 . 2 I DONE IT
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 12 PERSISTENCE TIME

RATING 1: 8 KIA ORA STAR *
RATING 2: 7 TOMMI TOOCAN
RATING 3: 6 QUEEN BEY


PINJ 7 - MANDURAH CUP 1409M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
38.0 . $2.60 . $3.90 . 4 FONTAINEBLEAU
19.0 . $5.30 . $7.95 . 3 WRINKLY
12.5 . $8.00 . $12.00 . 6 SENSO
11.0 . $9.10 . $13.65 . 1 DJANGO
8.0 . $12.50 . $18.75 . 5 SETTLERS CREEK
6.5 . $15.40 . $23.10 . 10 RED PUBLISHER
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 7 CLASSICAL PRINCE

RATING 1: 4 FONTAINEBLEAU *
RATING 2: 4 FONTAINEBLEAU *
RATING 3: 3 WRINKLY


PINJ 8 - BM 66+ HANDICAP 1600M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
44.0 . $2.30 . $3.45 . 7 MISSILE LAUNCH
27.0 . $3.70 . $5.55 . 6 BLACKLINE
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 2 PUSH TO PASS
5.5 . $18.20 . $27.30 . 4 RUSSIAN RIVER
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 1 BASS STRAIT
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 8 JESTER ROCK
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 10 SWIFT PLATINUM

RATING 1: 7 MISSILE LAUNCH
RATING 2: 7 MISSILE LAUNCH *
RATING 3: 7 MISSILE LAUNCH


PINJ 9 - BM 72+ HANDICAP 1000M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
40.0 . $2.50 . $3.75 . 4 GEE BOSS
22.0 . $4.50 . $6.75 . 5 TENTERDEN
16.5 . $6.10 . $9.15 . 9 SWEET ORA
6.0 . $16.70 . $25.05 . 3 THE CELT
5.5 . $18.20 . $27.30 . 13 YEAH DARDY
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 2 MAD BRAD

RATING 1: 5 TENTERDEN *
RATING 2: 4 GEE BOSS
RATING 3: 4 GEE BOSS
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  #8  
Old 6th January 2018, 05:33 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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RAND 6 - BM 85 HANDICAP 1000M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
29.5 . $3.40 . $5.10 . 1 GUARD OF HONOUR
29.5 . $3.40 . $5.10 . 8 MY MAHER
18.5 . $5.40 . $8.10 . 6 DON'T TEASE ME
13.0 . $7.70 . $11.55 . 2 FICKLE FOLLY
10.0 . $10.00 . $15.00 . 10 LOVERBOY CHARLIE


Always the way. But that horse at $23 had to be a contender considering it had a 40% strike rate at the distance mostly in good class. Its second up form was also 50% win strike rate.

I know its hard to cut them down. For instance your 5th horse was 50% at the distance and 50% first up so you couldn't drop that one. Fickle Folly and My Maher were both good chances as well.

Why was Don't Tease Me up so high ? It had a poor jockey, wide barrier which was unsuitable for a horse which likes to lead (might get caught wide). I assume it was in there due to the last few runs especially the win at Rosehill 2 starts ago.

This is where trying to cut down the selections just because you want 5 selections isn't a good idea. Ok for fun but not great for profits. Perhaps you should have gone wider on this race and skinnier on the others where you hit the winner in the top couple.
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  #9  
Old 6th January 2018, 09:22 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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I didn't cut any horses out because I wanted 5 selections. The next rated horse just had a very low rating, that's all, and as I said, I'm only going to list the horses with a rated price of $20 or less. So I only listed 5 horses and the ratings just got that race wrong. That's just the way it goes.

There were some good results. Lanciato as mentioned and Mighty Like was good at the Gold Coast.
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  #10  
Old 13th January 2018, 10:02 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Jan 13:


GCST 2 - MAGIC MILLIONS COUNTRY CUP 1200M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
21.0 . $4.80 . $7.20 . 5 HE'S A MORAL
19.5 . $5.10 . $7.65 . 11 SUGGAN BUGGAN
18.4 . $5.40 . $8.10 . 6 PURE REBEL
12.5 . $8.00 . $12.00 . 9 YARRAPOWER
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 1 ONE GOLDEN DAY
5.5 . $18.20 . $27.30 . 10 TRUST ME
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 2 CONCA DEL SOGNO
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 15 ZAFINA
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 8 LOMAZZO

RATING 1: 6 PURE REBEL
RATING 2: 11 SUGGAN BUGGAN
RATING 3: 5 HE'S A MORAL


GCST 3 - MAGIC MILLIONS OPEN 1300M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
36.5 . $2.70 . $4.05 . 3 HAVASAY
14.2 . $7.00 . $10.50 . 9 MISHANI EL LOBO
11.5 . $8.70 . $13.05 . 2 SIEGFRIED
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 11 GLENDARA
6.5 . $15.40 . $23.10 . 1 UPSTART PRIDE
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 12 I'M A RIPPA
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 6 SPUR LE JOUER
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 14 FIT FOR PURPOSE
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 16 SAILOR GERRI

RATING 1: 3 HAVASAY
RATING 2: 3 HAVASAY
RATING 3: 3 HAVASAY


GCST 4 - MAGIC MILLIONS TROPHY 2200M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
39.5 . $2.50 . $3.75 . 4 SEDANZER
16.2 . $6.20 . $9.30 . 7 FELTRE
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 10 INGEEGOODBE
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 3 DARK EYES
6.5 . $15.40 . $23.10 . 1 TESTASHADOW
6.5 . $15.40 . $23.10 . 8 OUTRAGED
6.0 . $16.70 . $25.05 . 6 MY GIULIANO
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 5 BLACK ON GOLD

RATING 1: 4 SEDANZER
RATING 2: 4 SEDANZER *
RATING 3: 4 SEDANZER


GCST 5 - MAGIC MILLIONS F&M 1300M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
28.5 . $3.50 . $5.25 . 1 GLOBAL GLAMOUR
17.5 . $5.70 . $8.55 . 4 ECKSTEIN
13.5 . $7.40 . $11.10 . 13 INVINCIBELLA
13.5 . $7.40 . $11.10 . 16 PRETTY FAST
12.0 . $8.30 . $12.45 . 8 MERRIEST
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 6 CANDIKA
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 11 SYLPHEED

RATING 1: 4 ECKSTEIN *
RATING 2: 16 PRETTY FAST
RATING 3: 1 GLOBAL GLAMOUR


GCST 6 - MAGIC MILLIONS CUP 1400M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
32.5 . $3.10 . $4.65 . 11 CARE TO THINK
23.9 . $4.20 . $6.30 . 3 CRACK ME UP
13.5 . $7.40 . $11.10 . 6 ARBEITSAM
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 8 OZI CHOICE
7.5 . $13.30 . $19.95 . 10 SNOOPY
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 5 SNIPPETS LAND
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 9 OAK DOOR
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 1 LUCKY HUSSLER

RATING 1: 3 CRACK ME UP
RATING 2: 11 CARE TO THINK *
RATING 3: 11 CARE TO THINK


GCST 7 - MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO GUINEAS 1400M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
42.0 . $2.40 . $3.60 . 1 PIERATA
25.5 . $3.90 . $5.85 . 15 SASSO CORBARO
11.0 . $9.10 . $13.65 . 2 GOODFELLA
8.0 . $12.50 . $18.75 . 9 WILD HEART
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 6 BEL SONIC
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 3 WHYPEEO

RATING 1: 1 PIERATA
RATING 2: 15 SASSO CORBARO
RATING 3: 1 PIERATA *


GCST 8 - MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC 1200M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
36.5 . $2.70 . $4.05 . 11 SUNLIGHT
21.0 . $4.80 . $7.20 . 1 JONKER
16.0 . $6.30 . $9.45 . 2 EF TROOP
10.5 . $9.50 . $14.25 . 12 NOMOTHAJ
7.5 . $13.30 . $19.95 . 7 BONDI
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 9 MERYL
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 13 OUTBACK BARBIE

RATING 1: 11 SUNLIGHT *
RATING 2: 11 SUNLIGHT *
RATING 3: 1 JONKER


GCST 9 - MAGIC MILLIONS SPRINT 1200M

RTNG . ODDS . VALUE . HORSE
35.5 . $2.80 . $4.20 . 3 VIDDORA
31.5 . $3.20 . $4.80 . 9 EGYPTIAN SYMBOL
11.5 . $8.70 . $13.05 . 6 KAEPERNICK
6.0 . $16.70 . $25.05 . 4 DOTHRAKI
6.0 . $16.70 . $25.05 . 5 PINCH RIVER
5.0 . $20.00 . $30.00 . 14 SNITZKRAFT
4.0 . $25.00 . $37.50 . 10 PERFECT DARE

RATING 1: 9 EGYPTIAN SYMBOL *
RATING 2: 3 VIDDORA
RATING 3: 3 VIDDORA


Syd & Melb later.
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