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  #1  
Old 18th February 2018, 09:42 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Default Fun System - Quads Casher

Just been thinking about quaddies tonight for no better reason then it was there.

We know hitting the quaddie is quite hard when you only get 1 pick in each race. Racing puts the quaddies on those last 4 races as they are the harder ones to pick.

So why can't we just do the same each day. Lay $100 on the fav in the first leg and if it wins chase the recovery on the second leg and so on. Lets assume average odds of $4 and that puts you up for $2700 loss approximately per meeting.

Lets see what happened yesterday.

Doomben : Lost first Race - Recovered second race and stop.
Flemington: WON $100.
Randwick: Lost First Race - Recovered second race and stop.
Gold Coast : WON $100
Newcastle : Lost First Race - Recovered second race and stop.
Bendigo: WON $100
Morphettville: WON $100
Ascot : Lost First Race - Recovered second race and stop.
Esperance : WON $100
Kangaroo Valley : WON $100
Toowoomba: Lost First and Second Race. Recovered at third race and stop.
Alice Springs: Lost First and Second Race. Recovered at third race and stop.
Warwrick : WON $100

Moree : No Quadrella
Orange : No Quadrella


So for risking an approx total of $2700 * 13 = $35100. I could have made $700.

Lets look at today:

Sunshine Coast : WIN $100
Nowra : WIN $100
Ballarat : WIN $100
Port Lincoln : Lost First and Second Race. Recovered at third race and stop.
Port Macquaire: WON $100
Bunbury : WON $100
Moe : WON $100
Hobart : WON $100

So today was even better. Risking approx $2700*8 = $21600. Profit was $700 again.

Two days = $1400 profit. Fairly safe method but you will lose occasionally.

The good thing about this system is you can go back test it and determine if it works.

This was just a fun system for me to throw together.

Use at your own risk.
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  #2  
Old 18th February 2018, 09:46 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Did a quick check for Friday as well.

It was successful but Werribee would have had you going to the last race.

Thursday was successful as well.

At this point you should have enough to cover 1 losing meeting.
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  #3  
Old 18th February 2018, 09:55 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Disregrd my risk figures. Its late at night.

It should be Lay $100 on first race. Losers at $4 = $300 loss.
Lay $300 on second race. Losers at $4 = $1200-300 = $900.
Lay $900 on third race. Losers at $4 = $3600-900 = $2700.
Lay $2700 on fourth race. Losers at $4 = $8100.

So the risk per meeting is $8100 not $2700 as I incorrectly put.
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  #4  
Old 18th February 2018, 10:39 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Just been thinking about quaddies tonight for no better reason then it was there.

We know hitting the quaddie is quite hard when you only get 1 pick in each race. Racing puts the quaddies on those last 4 races as they are the harder ones to pick.



You have thrown the quaddie jigsaw high up in the air I see and I just caught the pieces in a different order. I think you may be onto something here UB but its less about risking $000's for me and more about manufacturing a derivative of the end result. I will sleep on it and revisit if i can remember what I think just happened!

Cheers LG
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Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 18th February 2018 at 10:42 PM.
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  #5  
Old 19th February 2018, 10:37 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Disregrd my risk figures. Its late at night.

It should be Lay $100 on first race. Losers at $4 = $300 loss.
Lay $300 on second race. Losers at $4 = $1200-300 = $900.
Lay $900 on third race. Losers at $4 = $3600-900 = $2700.
Lay $2700 on fourth race. Losers at $4 = $8100.

So the risk per meeting is $8100 not $2700 as I incorrectly put.


If you lose $300 on the first leg and lay $300 on the second leg and it gets beat then you break even? (less commission) Seems to be a lot of risk for no gain, unless the first one loses. And if the first 2 win you're now -$1200?
All 4 win, (unlikely) and you lose $9600?
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  #6  
Old 19th February 2018, 07:22 PM
Shaun Shaun is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
If you lose $300 on the first leg and lay $300 on the second leg and it gets beat then you break even? (less commission) Seems to be a lot of risk for no gain, unless the first one loses. And if the first 2 win you're now -$1200?
All 4 win, (unlikely) and you lose $9600?


It happens more often than you would think.
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  #7  
Old 19th February 2018, 07:35 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
If you lose $300 on the first leg and lay $300 on the second leg and it gets beat then you break even? (less commission) Seems to be a lot of risk for no gain, unless the first one loses. And if the first 2 win you're now -$1200?
All 4 win, (unlikely) and you lose $9600?


Thats probably worst case scenerio.

Quote:
It happens more often than you would think.


You might be right but depends on how often you win vs lose. I didn't back test very far and don't intend to.



As with any system it all comes down to how much you win vs the strike rate of the wins. If I win 99 meetings and lose 1 and get a profit then its worth automating and just monitoring over time.
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  #8  
Old 19th February 2018, 07:38 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Saturday WIN $700
Sunday WIN $700

Today : WIN $200

I won't bother doing a back test lets just forward test as it takes me about 5 mins to check each day.
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  #9  
Old 19th February 2018, 11:06 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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You've lost me UB. How do you make a profit if you're laying to win back what you've lost ie break even???

From your post .....
It should be Lay $100 on first race. Losers at $4 = $300 loss.
Lay $300 on second race. Losers at $4 = $1200-300 = $900.
Lay $900 on third race. Losers at $4 = $3600-900 = $2700.
Lay $2700 on fourth race. Losers at $4 = $8100.

Laying $300 on 2nd race ONLY GETS BACK, the $300 lost.
Similarly, laying $900 on 3rd race leaves you $300 short. ie you win $900 but have already lost $1200.
And laying $2700 on 4th race, when you're now $3900 behind, just makes it worse.
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  #10  
Old 20th February 2018, 03:48 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
You've lost me UB. How do you make a profit if you're laying to win back what you've lost ie break even???

In this thread I am just profiting if the first fav loses.

You could aim to make $100 per meeting. It just adds a slight bit more risk.
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