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  #11  
Old 3rd March 2018, 04:05 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Mixed results.

Last night's favourite What Lizahead never looked likely. It was overtaken in the betting by The Kroc, who struggled into 3rd. Those two were both ruled out by me on account of them having the worst CDs in the field for the given race distance.

While those ruled out by Dosage did well, the Dosage-based picks didn't fare so great. Best of them was Big Blows who finished in 4th after going via the carpark.

The winner was Melba's Maestro - at $20 - who never got a look-in in the selections on account of having a small Classic figure (the second smallest in the field). He does looks slightly more appealing when using the Australian/NZ chefs-de-race though (and What Lizahead and The Kroc look just as unsuited).
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  #12  
Old 15th March 2018, 02:33 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
He does looks slightly more appealing when using the Australian/NZ chefs-de-race though (and What Lizahead and The Kroc look just as unsuited).
Alright. I did it. Here are some results using the list of Australian/NZ chefs-de-race.



Similar to using the official list, there does seem to be a tiny advantage to have a higher CD in races 1200m or less. (The 95% confidence interval for the mean is show in the next graph).


Eagle-eyed viewers may have noticed something else: the CD using the list of Australian/NZ chefs-de-race is more descriptive than that derived from the official list. The range over 900m to 2400m is 50% greater than that using the official chefs. If you're using dosage in this part of the world, it looks like it may be a smart idea to include local chefs. Whodathunk?!




In the race above I successfully excluded the two favourites on account of them being outside of the 90-95% confidence interval of a normal distribution with the given sample mean. (I haven't actually confirmed that the CDs are normally distributed yet, but the Central Limit Theorem would imply that they are). Here's what the graph looks like for a 95% interval. In theory, were the list of chefs-de-race maintained and there was little change to the distribution of horses/abilities entered in each race distance, runners outside of the range should have win odds $20 or greater. ....though whether that was true for any one particular race, rather than across all races, is a different story

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  #13  
Old 16th March 2018, 01:38 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Using the Australian and New Zealand chefs-de-race also makes some other figures more sensible. Here is the Dosage Index (the ratio of speed to stamina):




Most of the totals of each category vary over race distance, quite unlike what was noted when using the official list of chefs.




Dosage Total is still not a great indicator of class though (if 'class' is winning races with a large prize pool):

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