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  #11  
Old 6th March 2018, 05:50 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Remind me of dutching rules, I never do it BTW.
Shouldn't all of the selections be profitable on their own in the long run?
Thanks
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  #12  
Old 6th March 2018, 06:40 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackdog1
Remind me of dutching rules, I never do it BTW.
Shouldn't all of the selections be profitable on their own in the long run?
Thanks


Its never that simple. Betfair has commission per market. So a loss on other selections in the same race offset the amount needing to pay commission.

So if you didn't have to pay commission on betfair then generally the selections breakeven if you took all of them on all races. But after commission each selection is a loser.

By combining the dutching technique you offset the commission on the winners by the losers in the same race which reduces your commission payable. This means instead of being behind by 5%-6% due to commission you are only now down 1%-2%. If you then find a technique which gets you in front (Bet on maidens, bet first 4 races, stop at a winner or in this case using a ratings method are example techniques which may work) then you have a winning system even though individually the selections are losers.
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  #13  
Old 7th March 2018, 05:01 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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There was no data today for testing, very disappointing, i am busy tomorrow so unless the data is up early i can't set things up, not very good from a test point of view.
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  #14  
Old 11th March 2018, 07:30 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Results

I am looking at the win/loss ratio of earlier races compared to later races.


Shaun,
Be very careful.

Using the average Oz field size (11) and no Mdns we find that the Top4 have a combined WSR of 71,6% which means you need a Dutch resultant better than $1.40 to do better than B/E. Sadly, when you run through a coupla hundred thousand you find the actual Dutch resultant over the Top 4 is $1.20 so that's a loser.
By going after the 5th ranker you'll find a WSR of 8.2% which demands a B/E of $12.20 ..... but the 5th rankers resultant is only $10.80 .... :-(

You might get away with it for a while but the arithmetic will get you in the end :-) I wish you luck.
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  #15  
Old 11th March 2018, 08:35 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Its never that simple. Betfair has commission per market. So a loss on other selections in the same race offset the amount needing to pay commission.

So if you didn't have to pay commission on betfair then generally the selections breakeven if you took all of them on all races. But after commission each selection is a loser.

By combining the dutching technique you offset the commission on the winners by the losers in the same race which reduces your commission payable. This means instead of being behind by 5%-6% due to commission you are only now down 1%-2%. If you then find a technique which gets you in front (Bet on maidens, bet first 4 races, stop at a winner or in this case using a ratings method are example techniques which may work) then you have a winning system even though individually the selections are losers.


Hi UB. Interesting insight.

I'm interested in how the commission offset works. Can you provide a very basic example using 1 race if you can be ar$ed?

Cheers LG
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  #16  
Old 11th March 2018, 08:49 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Hi UB. Interesting insight.

I'm interested in how the commission offset works. Can you provide a very basic example using 1 race if you can be ar$ed?

Cheers LG


Simple Example of 3 horses in 2 races. I'll use the same odds for an example. I'll assume 5% commission.

Race 1
Horse 1 $2.00
Horse 2 $3.00
Horse 3 $5.00


Race 2
Horse 1 $2.00
Horse 2 $3.00
Horse 3 $5.00

If you layed Horse 3 in Race1 and Horse 1 in race 2 for $100 each. You would make the following profits (assuming one wins and one loses):

Race 1 : WIN $100 *0.95 = $95 win
Race 2 : LOSS $100 = -$100 loss

$5 commission is paid on race 1.

End result = a loss of $5.

If we had layed Horse 1 in race 1 and horse 3 in race 1 and we assume horse 1 loses similar to the other example:


Race 1 : (WIN $100 - $100 Loss ) = $0
Race 2 : No Bet

No commission is payabe.

End result = breakeven.


Now turn that into backing or laying half the field of maybe the entire field for differing amounts an the commission payable can change considerably from a major amount to a minor amount or vice versa. Commission all depends on your profit per market not per selection.
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  #17  
Old 11th March 2018, 09:04 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Sorry UB. Tried to make sense of your example but my head is not working v quickly on a Sunday morning.

I'm trying to ascertain whether you can gain an offset on dutching selections that don't win in the same race or does bf match bets/lays in the same market (or both!), the question being - am i getting 'commission credits' for backing more runners in a race or must I include a lay bet(s) to achieve this.


cheers LG
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  #18  
Old 11th March 2018, 10:10 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Brain waking up .. here is my example:

Race 1 All $100
No 1 $2.00 - Back - WIN $200 less stake less 5% comm = $95
No 2 $3.00 - Back - lose $100
No 3 $4.00 - Back - lose $100
No 4 $4.00 - Lay - win $100
No 5 $6.00 - Lay - win $100

Overall profit = +190+100-100+100+100 = $95 + comm credits for successful lay bets on No 4 and No 5?

Cheers LG
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Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 11th March 2018 at 10:13 AM.
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  #19  
Old 11th March 2018, 10:13 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Sorry UB. Tried to make sense of your example but my head is not working v quickly on a Sunday morning.

I'm trying to ascertain whether you can gain an offset on dutching selections that don't win in the same race or does bf match bets/lays in the same market (or both!), the question being - am i getting 'commission credits' for backing more runners in a race or must I include a lay bet(s) to achieve this.


cheers LG


The Win market is regarded as one market regardless of backing or laying, 2 different markets would be win then place.

Commission is paid on the final result of that market, this is how trading is done, if i backed a runner for $10 @ $5.00 then i layed the same runner for $12.50 @ $4.00 i would end up with a profit of $2.50 you would then apply commission to this amount $2.50 x0.95 = $2.38 profit.
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Last edited by Shaun : 11th March 2018 at 10:20 AM.
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  #20  
Old 11th March 2018, 10:17 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Brain waking up .. here is my example:

Race 1 All $100
No 1 $2.00 - Back - WIN $200 less stake less 5% comm = $95
No 2 $3.00 - Back - lose $100
No 3 $4.00 - Back - lose $100
No 4 $4.00 - Lay - win $100
No 5 $6.00 - Lay - win $100

Overall profit = +190+100-100+100+100 = $95 + comm credits for successful lay bets on No 4 and No 5?

Cheers LG


Correct.
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"If you need them , you will soon find out."
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