Aspetar wins at $9.50, runs what appears to be a race record of 2'24.60s and collects around $AUD120k of prizemoney. Ziyad was second 0.75L behind, with Silverware 1.25L third.





You can watch the race here: https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2019-06-02/R1/C4

Ran slightly worse than midfield, gave the leaders around 6 lengths start and ran them down somewhat comfortably. Wrap him up in cotton wool, send him down here and run him in a lead-up race if he needs to jump up the order of entry.

Not surprising, Surprise Baby off for a well-earned break

Some qualifying races this weekend:


The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational will be held Saturday morning, Australian time. Red Cardinal won the race in 2017. Last year the field included Prince of Arran, who went on to take out third place in the Melbourne Cup.

The field this year:
Mootasadir
Noble Thought
Amade
Red Knight
Highland Sky
Arklow
Hunter O'Riley
Raa Atoll
Canessar

Mootasadir is trained by Hugo Palmer who brought out Wall of Fire for the 2017 Melbourne Cup. He's also owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa bin Saeed Al Maktoum, cousin of the Dubai ruler and Godolphin head.

Hugo spoke earlier this year regarding Mootasadir's target: "The long-term aim, an end goal, is for him to be a Melbourne Cup horse - but we have got to jump through various hoops to get there first."

One of those hoops may be his poor showing on turf. Of his 9 starts he's had an impressive 6 wins, but those 3 losses (by 3L, 42L, and 18L respectively) have been his only runs on a turf surface. Per the British official ratings, he's a 6kg better horse on All-Weather. Speaking prior to his last loss - which admittedly was against Stradivarius - Palmer said: "He has got excuses for both runs on turf, but he has not done much wrong. Hopefully we can now try and get that win on the turf into him."

The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational is over the turf course. It's also over 3200m: 800m further than his longest race to date.

Raa Atoll is reportedly another horse with Melbourne Cup aims. He won the €100,000 G2 Comer Group International Oleander-Rennen (3200m) at Berlin’s Hoppegarten racecourse, defeating Thomas Hobson by 1.5 lengths, in mid-May. Thomas Hobson was the $1.50 favourite. Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/pgeWkOCIxvQ. The past two winners of the Oleander-Rennen have relocated to Australia - Red Cardinal (2017) and Sound Check (2018) - with both horses unplaced in subsequent Melbourne Cup attempts. Raa Atoll ran a quicker race though, if that counts for anything.

Raa Atoll went up against a few other familiar names last season, finishing just over 1L behind Rostropovich in the 2400m Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at level weights, then failed badly (58L) in his next race, which featured Best Solution and Duretto.


Also overseas this weekend, runners could pass the first ballot clause in contesting the Belmont Stakes, Brooklyn Invitational Stakes (also at Belmont) or the Betway Pinnacle Stakes (at Haydock Park, UK). Looks unlikely any candidate will come from those races though.


In Australia we're set for the Queensland Derby (first 5 in betting: Nobu, Mr Quickie, Scarlet Dream, Carif, Fun Fact) and Brisbane Cup (Sixties Groove, The Candy Man, Haripour, Life Less Ordinary, Grey Lion) at Eagle Farm this Saturday.

Amade takes out the Belmont Gold Cup. I read last night that OTI Racing had bought into him this March and boss Terry Henderson was confident he was well-placed in the race leading in:

"It’s a Group 2 race and a win there would probably take him up to (an international rating of) 112-to-114 mark and that makes him a serious Melbourne Cup horse.

"Red Cardinal won it a couple of years ago. It’s on a flat track (the same as Flemington) so we get a good assessment of that and it’s also left-handed – the Melbourne way of running – so we’ll get a pretty good idea."

Per their twitter after this morning's win: "A Melbourne Cup campaign will very much be on the agenda after an incredible win for connections!"

You can read a comprehensive pre-race profile on him (and the other internationals in the field) here: https://www.twinspires.com/blog/201...ootasadir-amade

You can watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRbfcKTh6Pg (with Spanish commentary).

Mootasadir and Raa Atoll were 1-2 most of the way. They only seemed to go at a moderate pace though and were swept past in the straight. Race time was 3'19.95, which is the slowest since it become a black type race a few years ago.


OTI Racing have Grey Lion ($7) and Master Zephyr ($101) in today's Brisbane Cup.

Mr Quickie won the Queensland Derby ("[F]or his age: gee this horse can stay, his record speaks for itself he's remarkable", said Trainer Phillip Stokes) and Sixties Groove took out the Brisbane Cup ("This is the first time he has actually been out to a trip since we owned him. We bought him thinking he would be a Caulfield Cup horse," Australian Bloodstock’s Jamie Lovett said).

Not sure there's much thought of Mr Quickie going to the Melbourne Cup (currently unlisted in the Futures Market) whereas Sixties Groove looks at least some chance ($201).

That's it for local qualifying races until the Newcastle Gold Cup on September 13th. Is it any wonder the race is now dominated by overseas horses?


Speaking of foreign candidates, the next likeliest source of those runners is during the Royal Ascot Carnival (June 15th - June 24th).

Changes announced today increased this year's Melbourne Cup prizepool to $8mil from $7.3mil:

First - $4,000,000 $4,400,000 and trophies valued at $200,000, $20,000, $15,000, $7,500 & $7,500 to owner, rider, trainer, strapper and breeder respectively
Second - $1,000,000 $1,100,000
Third - $500,000 $550,000
Fourth - $300,000 $350,000
Fifth - $200,000 $230,000
Sixth - $150,000 $160,000
Seventh - $150,000 $160,000
Eighth - $150,000 $160,000
Ninth - $150,000 $160,000
Tenth - $150,000 $160,000
Eleventh - $150,000 $160,000
Twelfth - $150,000 $160,000

For horses earning prizemoney for being placed 1st – 12th inclusive, respective prizemonies payable shall be distributed as follows:
Owner - 85%; Trainer - 10%; Rider - 5%

Gold Mount won a guaranteed spot in the Ebor Handicap in the Listed 2800m Grand Cup Stakes at York over the weekend. The Ebor is held on the same/course distance and the last three winners there have subsequently contested The Melbourne Cup (2016: Heartbreak City, 2017: Nakeeta, 2018: Muntahaa). There is no guarantee he takes his earned position though, as it's also a handicapped race:

"In terms of the Ebor I think the handicapper will give him plenty of weight. He's a small horse, a big weight in a top handicap might be tough for him,” his trainer Ian Williams said.

"He's been sent to me to be prepared for the Melbourne Cup, so we'll work back from there."

You can watch his Grand Cup Stakes run here: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...eplays/3/94641/

Gold Mount races at the rear before easily accounting for the rest of the field in the straight. As impressive as it looks, it's in a small field, he's a 6yo who will likely be weighted such that the same tactics won't work as well in the Melbourne Cup, and the time was 5secs slower than what Marmelo ran to win the same race the year previous.

Gold Mount is an English horse who spent a spent a couple of seasons in Hong Kong. There, the owners decided to aim him at the Melbourne Cup. Shipping him back to the UK seems like a roundabout way of going about things, but there are so many more opportunities to qualify by that route.

This was his first black-type win, which was preceded by 13 Group starts for 3 minor placings. His prior race was in the Dubai Gold Cup, his first over the 3200m distance, where Cross Counter beat him by 8 lengths (with Gold Mount carrying 2.5kg extra).

Trainer Ian Williams was here last year with Magic Circle, who finished 16th in the Cup. (Magic Circle has since contested just the one race, resuming in a 2700m Group 3 at Chester, finishing in 3rd position and 8.5L behind the winner Morando. More encouragingly, in 2nd position - and only 0.5L ahead - was Kew Gardens).

Gold Mount is currently at $26 in Melbourne Cup futures with Magic Circle at $61.

I'm not really a follower of overseas racing (only in retrospect once the Melbourne Cup nominees are announced) but looking at the Royal Ascot Racing Carnival, the following races would be qualifying performances for the Melbourne Cup:


Queen's Vase - Wednesday midnight (AEST)
Group 2 - 2847m - 3yo

He didn't ultimately come to the Melbourne Cup, but last year's winner of this race, Kew Gardens, was an entrant. Hartnell and Stradivarius are also past victors. Western Australia is the current favourite ($4 - trained by Aidan O'Brien who has won 3 of the past 4 runnings), followed by Norway ($4.80 - also trained by O'Brien) and Jalmoud ($6 - trained by Charlie Appleby and owned by Godolphin, who teamed up to win the Cup with Cross Counter last year). Northern Hemisphere 3yo's have essentially been penalised an extra kilogram this year, but I don't expect that to be enough to totally dissuade those with a handy chance to make the trip, given the success of similarly-aged horses in recent times.


The Gold Cup - Thursday 11:50pm (AEST)
Group 1 - 4014m - 4yo+

Cross Counter vs the defending champ Stradivarius is the headline act with Dee Ex Bee, Kew Gardens, Flag of Honour, Magic Circle, Thomas Hobson and Master of Reality among those also featuring. Trip To Paris won this race in 2015 ahead of a Melbourne Cup tilt in the same year. At one stage he was favourite in the lead-up and finished a nice 4th in the Prince of Penzance win/dodgem derby. A place behind in that same race was Big Orange who would go on to win The Gold Cup a couple of years later.


The King Edward VII Stakes - Friday midnight (AEST)
Group 2 - 2406m - 3yo C&G

Rostropovich was second in this race last year. Best Solution was 10th in it the year prior.


The Hardwicke Stakes -Sunday 12:40am
Group 2 - 2406m - 4yo+

Queen's Vase

Dashing Willoughby takes out the 2800m Queen's Vase, beating Barbados and Nayef Road in wet conditions after a betting plunge saw his starting odds halve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bGrZSmpXDE. Winner Dashing Willoughby is heading to the St Leger, as will the majority of this field given that they're all colts.


The Gold Cup

Stradivarius goes back-to-back, jumping at evens. He was always in the front group, alongside placegetters Dee Ex Bee and Master of Reality. Looked to be in a little danger after being boxed-in until well down the home straight, but Frankie Dettori managed to get him out. Cross Counter was the only challenger to run on from the rear and finished in 4th; this lead bunch putting 5 lengths on the rest of the field. The track condition was Soft, the race time nearly 10 seconds slower than what Stradivarius achieved last year.

Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOKDLEyQPms

No chance of Stradivarius coming out for the Melbourne Cup: the handicapper would have him towing a caravan.

Dee Ex Bee's racing manager seems to think they could turn the tables if things went a little differently. Apparently Dee Ex Bee's a battler who was focused on the tussle with Master of Reality on his immediate outside, rather than the lead horse who was wider. I think he's just proud of his horse.

The Lloyd Williams Group owns Master of Reality and Nick Williams confirmed after the race that he'll be heading to Melbourne. Followers might recall that Master of Reality was meant to come to Australia last season (as companion to Latrobe), but there was no space for him in quarantine. I think he's a bit on the dour side if he makes the final field of the Melbourne Cup, but he should ensure that the race goes at a genuine clip, hoping to outlast the rest.

Cross Counter would have lost very few fans with his performance. As noted above, he was the only horse to run on. At 2.5 miles it's a little longer than he'd like and perhaps reason enough that he didn't have quite the speedy, sustained finish as shown in the past - though the 57.5kg might have had something to with it also, along with the soft surface. Trainer Charlie Appleby stated after the race that a return for the Melbourne Cup would likely depend on the weight he was allotted - but it's certainly not off the table.

The King Edward VII Stakes
Group 2 - 2406m - 3yo C&G

Japan (the horse; not the country) won the King Edward VII stakes in comprehensive fashion. From his Jockey Ryan Moore: "This is a high-class colt. He's very good, and he put them to bed very easily there," he said. "He was the best horse. It was just keeping it simple, really. He could be more than a Leger horse—he's a good horse. He will be very effective over a mile and a half."

He looks to be headed toward the St Leger but there appears to be some thought of meeting all-aged horses in the King George first, or even going on to the Arc. Bangkok and Eagles By Day took out the minors; neither of whom are talking about heading to Melbourne.

Watch the race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZQLxVm-NpI


The Hardwicke Stakes
Group 2 - 2406m - 4yo+

It was another favourite that took out the Hardwicke Stakes. Defoe has already had a few mentions in this thread, including noting his lead-up win in the Coronation Cup at a new career peak. Gelding really seems to have done him some favours. It was only a 0.75L win ahead of Nagano Gold, whose jockey spent the first furlong of the race determining his mount was still in one piece after Masar on his outside came out of the gates sideways. He was also held up and checked in the dash for home as he swept from the rear.

Nagano Gold is a Czech horse. In 2016 there was a Czech entrant for the Melbourne Cup, Trip To Rhodos, but they weren't able to come in the end due to quarantine regulations. Because there is no agreement between Australia and the Czech Republic, a horse needs to spend 60 days in an approved country prior to importation. They left it too late in 2016, it looks like connections here are going to keep him in Europe.

Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/yZ4ZQzDeuhg


I listened to a radio interview from a couple of weeks ago with the VRC's Executive General Manager, who was asked about some of the foreign horses they were trying to get to Melbourne for the Cup (https://player.fm/series/rsn-racing...e-cup-wish-list). He said that there were a couple of runners in today's Takarazuka Kinen that had expressed some interest.

The Takarazuka Kinen is a Group 1 2200m Turf race to be held at Hanshin racecourse later this afternoon. In recent times at least, the Japanese horses who have made the trip to Australia have tended to have proven they can run the Cup distance, rather than be the horse who can run it most effectively given the style of race. So it's interesting that a "couple of potential candidates" are contesting a far shorter race this time.

No word on which of the runners are among those to have expressed interest, but the #1 horse Kiseki is trained by Katsuhiko Sumii who took out the 2006 Melbourne Cup with Delta Blues - and also trained Pop Rock who finished in 2nd. Kiseki also won a G1 3000m race for 3yos in 2017, so little fear of the 2 miles.

After googling about, I discovered that it was reported earlier this month that Kiseki had received an invite from the Moonee Valley Racing Club to contest the Cox Plate. Almond Eye received a similar invite and had been anticipated to be in this race (runners are selected by popular vote and she was on top of the count) but withdrew. It's a fair chance that these are the two runners that were hinted at in the radio interview.

Rey de Oro is the favourite in the race, but 6 of the 12 runners are at $10 or under (Kiseki is at $11 first up) so it will be hotly contested.