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  #1  
Old 18th October 2022, 09:31 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Default Melbourne Cup 2022

Wallkermac are you around ?

I always look for you analysis each year and this year I will be flying blind without you

If anyone else interested in doing the analysis Walkermac did last year as his table on reasons why horses would win were always super helpful.
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  #2  
Old 19th October 2022, 11:05 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Same, he does the best form for the cup.
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  #3  
Old 21st October 2022, 06:48 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Sorry that I've been remiss with the Cup this year. I don't have the time available that I used to. I haven't been paying attention to any racing beyond putting some (dodgy) tips into the comp once a week. I will try and put some info up over the weekend though (fingers crossed my code still works!)
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  #4  
Old 24th October 2022, 09:52 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Well, bad news: can't find the file I used to use so I figure it must be on my old laptop. That laptop won't start (boot selection failed because a required device is inaccessible). I spent a bit of time on the weekend trying to fix it, but no luck.


It should be relatively easy to find the data though. That file just scraped it so that it was easier. One point for each:

  • Less than 8yo
  • Wgt < 57kg
  • Not a mare
  • <= $21 SP
  • < $16 in last
  • Wgtd < than in last
  • FS in last >= 10
  • Won Black Type
  • <=3L in last
  • <6 victories
I don't think it's done much good the past 3 years, so....


I could source this data, if anyone finds it interesting:

HorseSireDamDosage ProfileD.I.CD
DURSTONSEA THE MOONCARIBANA0-0-11-5-20.44-0.5
LUNAR FLARE FIORENTEMY FAIR LAGO3-6-16-5-01.310.23
POINT NEPEANCAMELOTSEA GODDESS3-4-21-14-00.71-0.1
DEAUVILLE LEGENDSEA THE STARSSOHO ROSE1-3-15-1-21.10
GOLD TRIPOUTSTRIPSARVANA12-5-10-5-02.20.75
DUAIS SHAMUS AWARDMEERLUST8-9-3-0-012.331.25
MONTEFILIA KERMADECBANA WU1-1-9-5-00.68-0.13
HOO YA MALTERRITORIESSENSATIONALLY5-1-10-6-010.23
KNIGHTS ORDERSO YOU THINKLAMANKA LASS6-6-21-9-01.150.21
LOFTADLERFLUGLABRICE3-6-10-10-10.880
WITHOUT A FIGHTTEOFILOKHOR SHEED2-9-13-10-01.060.09
NUMERIANHOLY ROMAN EMPERORDELICATE CHARM4-9-25-4-01.550.31
CAMORRAZOFFANYMAURALAKANA1-3-4-0-030.63
ALEGRON TEOFILOALEGRIA4-7-12-7-01.310.27
STOCKMANTAVISTOCKCRIMSON1-5-23-9-40.71-0.24
YOUNG WERTHERTAVISTOCKROMANTIC TIME10-8-15-7-01.760.53
VOW AND DECLARE DECLARATION OF WARGEBLITZT6-8-6-0-05.671
GRAND PROMENADECHAMPS ELYSEESZACCHERA3-8-13-0-02.690.58
TRALEE ROSETAVISTOCKSTAR OF TRALEE2-5-24-9-40.76-0.18
DAQIANSWEET JUNIORSWEET ORANGEPAULETTE3-14-9-0-04.780.77
ARAPAHOLOPE DE VEGAALZUBRA0-11-13-0-02.690.46
CRYSTAL PEGASUSAUSTRALIACRYSTAL ETOILE1-3-14-8-00.73-0.12
SMOKIN' ROMANSGHIBELLINESINFERNO0-10-16-2-01.80.29
EMISSARYKINGMANSOVIET MOON3-3-8-4-01.250.28
REALM OF FLOWERS SO YOU THINKASTRAL FLOWER2-4-16-8-00.880
INTERPRETATIONGALILEODALDIYNA3-9-18-12-010.07
MAKRAMMAKE BELIEVESPONTANEOUS1-5-5-5-01.130.13
KING OF THE CASTLEGALILEOREMEMBER WHEN5-11-20-12-01.180.19
SERPENTINEGALILEOREMEMBER WHEN5-11-20-12-01.180.19
CHAPADA BULLET TRAINDIAMANTINA DIOR2-4-13-7-00.930.04
SAN HUBERTOSPEIGHTSTOWNSEDICIOSA5-10-9-0-04.330.83
HARMYSIANLOPE DE VEGAADJA1-10-11-0-030.55
HIGH EMOCEANOCEAN PARKHIGH JOY2-11-22-5-21.330.14
SCHABAUPASTORIUSSTAYING ALIVE2-3-10-5-010.1


(From a 2021 post) Looking at past figures:
  • From left to right, the "average" 3200m race winner would have a profile like (5-5-15-4-2) (not to say that any one winner looks like that, just that all the individual numbers average out to those figures)
  • Some numbers in the rightmost position would be particularly handy (this indicates that one/some of those ancestors tended to pass on long distance prowess; though that wouldn't help much if turns into a sit and sprint)
  • An index of around 1.94
  • A CD of around 0.22
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  #5  
Old 25th October 2022, 09:42 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I do find it interesting. Thanks for the info so far

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  #6  
Old 27th October 2022, 12:03 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I do find it interesting. Thanks for the info so far



I concur. RESPECT

Cheers LG
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  #7  
Old 27th October 2022, 12:32 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Agreed, I can give it a crack with the scoring walkermac outlined but i'd have to do it all manually so would take a bit of time. But i've always loved these cup threads, one of the few things that keeps me checking in each year.
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  #8  
Old 27th October 2022, 06:30 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Ill likely do it Saturday night or Sunday in some format.
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  #9  
Old 28th October 2022, 10:15 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Agreed, I can give it a crack with the scoring walkermac outlined but i'd have to do it all manually so would take a bit of time. But i've always loved these cup threads, one of the few things that keeps me checking in each year.


Exactly this champ.

LG
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  #10  
Old 30th October 2022, 09:27 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Ive done the figures and used them in one of my youtube videos to look through the melb cup. I'll post it up once its ready (in a few hours).
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