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  #11  
Old 30th October 2022, 11:57 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Here are my thoughts on the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

It follows a couple of simple systems and then I take a bit of a look what I will be doing (which is laying some horses). Feel free to disagree and debate.


I look forward to a lot of debate on the Melbourne cup as its rare many of us agree on it.

My analysis was done based on it likely being a SOFT or HEAVY track.

If you don't want to hear about every horse just jump forward to the ratings at 37 minutes and 30 seconds and my selections appear just after that.


https://youtu.be/jvMHfOptTXI

It has all of the table done in alphabetical order at the 37 minute mark. I have it broken down by each horse if you watch the entire video. Hopefully I got the numbers right.


Good Luck on the race.
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  #12  
Old 30th October 2022, 04:46 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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For what it's worth....as usual the worst race of the year for punters to bet on, and this is the worst field for quite a few years. When the top weight is the winner of only 1 race from 15 starts you know it's not good.

I can normally get the race down to 4-6 chances but this year I can only narrow it down to 13, or more than half the field. Again, not good.

Looking at the race as a layer, there is only 1 horse in the market, so he will be my worst way.

For the record, I'm on Gold Trip, which I can't see winning, and only on because I got 100/1. I will be laying him to make a profit.

Good luck, you'll need it.
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  #13  
Old 31st October 2022, 05:22 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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UB, had a look at your video, thanks for putting it up.

I'm leaning towards Montefilia and Smokin' Romans being my key picks with Deauville Legend and Without A Fight being next in line.

With how weak the race appears, if you look past the fave which seems very poor value given how much luck is required to win, there really does seem to be 8-10 hopefuls that could all win on their day.

With gold trip being a 2kg clear top weight with only 1 career win I feel that kind of speaks to how weak the field is. I think this opens up the potential for some of the usual 'rules' to be broken - i.e. every chance a mare could win this year.

Best of luck to all having a crack.
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  #14  
Old 31st October 2022, 11:13 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Good evening gentlemen!

Here are my top picks for the cup based on wet weather form.

Top chances
Numerian
Stockman
Young Werther
Lunar Flare

Others
Knights Order
Arapaho
High Emocean

Best value
Stockman


Best of luck chaps!

Cheers LG
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  #15  
Old 1st November 2022, 01:13 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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I haven't had time for an in-depth study of the field, but I do like the look of Smokin' Romans. Will run forward, nice sectional in the Turnbull Stakes, drawn wide-but-not-too-wide with a light weight.

Also on the top two rungs of 'the system' Thanks for doing the work there, UB.
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  #16  
Old 1st November 2022, 02:46 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I like Vow and Declare with a few others, i hate this race
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  #17  
Old 1st November 2022, 08:44 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Looking at the race as a layer, there is only 1 horse in the market, so he will be my worst way.

For the record, I'm on Gold Trip, which I can't see winning, and only on because I got 100/1. I will be laying him to make a profit.



Being a layer is like being a weather forecaster, you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job.....and make a profit.
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  #18  
Old 2nd November 2022, 10:50 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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I guess I was in part correct, one of the main rules was broken, just it was the weight one and not gender of the horse. I had gold trip rated well and my only bet on the race was a First 4 however only had it for 2nd onwards as the weight scared me off.

My 3 other main picks had varying results (Smokin romans, without a fight and montefilia). I was really high on montefilia but my hopes were crushed when 300m into the race she had been taken back to last.

I had all of the top 9 in my first 4 but not having gold trip to win cost me.

Melb cup is always a bit of fun although my losing drought stretches to another year longer. Hopefully we have the crew back for another tilt next year
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